Fantasy EPL Player Projections: Gameweek 30

Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City celebrates scoring the third from afflicted shot during the Carabao Cup match at Old Trafford, Manchester. Picture date: 7th January 2020. (Photo by Sportimage/Imago/Icon Sportswire) ****NO AGENTS---NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA SALES ONLY****

Football is notoriously hard to predict, and as such, player projections for the fantasy draft game are rare. With so few goals scored, upsets tend to happen more than in other sports, whilst the limited use of substitutes also makes it easy to misjudge the amount of playing time an individual will get. Add these to the fact that any position can and does contribute to almost all aspects of the game (unlike in many American sports), as well as the fact that one goal can have a monumental impact on a player’s score (e.g. a goalkeeper can go from +8 to -2 with one kick), and you have a recipe for disaster.

So, with that all said, I present to you Fantrax EPL’s first-ever attempt at gameweek projections. Please go easy on them!

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Gameweek 30 Player Projections

(Note: all numbers are based on Togga scoring. The process explaining these projections can be found at the foot of the article).

Goalkeepers

1	Ederson	20.25
2	Bernd Leno	14.50
3	Aaron Ramsdale	14.25
4	Vicente Guaita	14.25
5	Dean Henderson	8.00
6	Martin Dubravka	6.00
7	Nick Pope	4.00
8	David de Gea	4.00
9	Tim Krul	4.00
10	Alex McCarthy	4.00
11	Hugo Lloris	4.00
12	Ben Foster	4.00
13	Lukasz Fabianski	4.00
14	Pepe Reina	2.50
15	Jordan Pickford	2.00
16	Alisson	2.00
17	Rui Patricio	2.00
18	Mat Ryan	0.00
19	Kepa Arrizabalaga	0.00
20	Kasper Schmeichel	0.00

Defenders

1	Diego Rico	17.25
2	Enda Stevens	15.75
3	Marcos Alonso	15.50
4	George Baldock	15.50
5	Chris Basham	15.50
6	Joao Cancelo	15.50
7	Jack O’Connell	15.25
8	Adam Smith	14.25
9	Shkodran Mustafi	14.25
10	Nathan Ake	14.00
11	Trent Alexander-Arnold	13.75
12	Steve Cook	13.50
13	Matt Targett	13.50
14	Patrick van Aanholt	13.00
15	Gary Cahill	12.50
16	Benjamin Mendy	12.25
17	Cesar Azpilicueta	12.00
18	Joel Ward	11.50
19	Nicolas Otamendi	11.50
20	Matt Doherty	11.25
21	Scott Dann	11.00
22	John Egan	10.75
23	Willy Boly	10.25
24	Frederic Guilbert	10.25
25	John Stones	10.25
26	Aymeric Laporte	10.00
27	Kyle Walker	10.00
28	Lucas Digne	9.75
29	Conor Coady	8.75
30	Andrew Robertson	8.75
31	Bjorn Engels	8.25
32	Ben Chilwell	8.00
33	Virgil van Dijk	8.00
34	John Lundstram	8.00
35	Harry Maguire	7.75
36	Fabian Balbuena	7.50
37	Ryan Bertrand	7.00
38	Jonny	6.75
39	Aaron Wan-Bissaka	6.50
40	Serge Aurier	6.50
41	James Justin	6.25
42	Djibril Sidibe	6.25
43	Jack Stephens	6.00
44	Federico Fernandez	6.00
45	Antonio Rudiger	6.00
46	Yan Valery	5.75
47	Jan Bednarek	5.50
48	Issa Diop	5.25
49	Kurt Zouma	5.25
50	Jonny Evans	5.25
51	Emerson	5.25
52	Tyrone Mings	5.25
53	Jeremy Ngakia	5.00
54	Michael Keane	5.00
55	Pablo Mari	5.00
56	Aaron Cresswell	4.75
57	Adam Masina	4.50
58	Jamaal Lascelles	4.00
59	Christian Kabasele	4.00
60	Kieran Tierney	4.00
61	Caglar Soyuncu	3.75
62	Javier Manquillo	3.25
63	Seamus Coleman	3.25
64	Mason Holgate	3.00
65	Danny Rose	3.00
66	Sokratis	3.00
67	Japhet Tanganga	2.75
68	Jeffrey Schlupp	2.75
69	Joseph Gomez	2.75
70	Grant Hanley	2.50
71	Jamal Lewis	2.50
72	Craig Dawson	2.50
73	James Tarkowski	2.50
74	Luke Shaw	2.25
75	Max Aarons	2.25
76	Kiko Femenia	2.00
77	Brandon Williams	2.00
78	Ruben Vinagre	2.00
79	Victor Lindelof	1.75
80	David Luiz	1.75
81	Ben Mee	1.00
82	Craig Cathcart	1.00
83	Hector Bellerin	0.75
84	Adam Webster	0.75
85	Dan Burn	0.75
86	Ben Davies	0.50
87	Matthew Lowton	0.50
88	Toby Alderweireld	0.50
89	Erik Pieters	0.50
90	Sead Kolasinac	0.50
91	Charlie Taylor	0.25
92	Phil Bardsley	-0.25
93	Davinson Sanchez	-0.75
94	Neil Taylor	-0.75
95	Lewis Dunk	-1.50
96	Martin Montoya	-1.75

Midfielders

1	Kevin De Bruyne	35.50
2	Jack Grealish	30.50
3	John McGinn	24.00
4	Mesut Ozil	19.50
5	James Maddison	19.00
6	David Silva	19.00
7	Bruno Fernandes	17.75
8	Riyad Mahrez	17.25
9	Christian Pulisic	17.00
10	John Fleck	17.00
11	Anwar El Ghazi	15.75
12	Jonjo Shelvey	15.25
13	Oliver Norwood	15.00
14	Mason Mount	14.00
15	Dani Ceballos	14.00
16	James Ward-Prowse	13.75
17	Ross Barkley	13.25
18	Harvey Barnes	11.75
19	Bernardo Silva	11.75
20	Joao Moutinho	10.75
21	Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg	10.25
22	Emiliano Buendia	10.25
23	Trezeguet	10.25
24	Youri Tielemans	10.00
25	Paul Pogba	10.00
26	Wilfred Ndidi	9.75
27	N’Golo Kante	9.75
28	Marvelous Nakamba	9.75
29	Douglas Luiz	9.50
30	Mateo Kovacic	9.00
31	Michail Antonio	9.00
32	Rodrigo	9.00
33	Oleksandr Zinchenko	9.00
34	Conor Hourihane	8.75
35	Nathan Redmond	8.50
36	Matt Ritchie	8.25
37	Gylfi Sigurdsson	8.00
38	Ondrej Duda	8.00
39	Abdoulaye Doucoure	8.00
40	Jordan Henderson	7.50
41	Scott McTominay	7.25
42	Todd Cantwell	7.25
43	Diogo Jota	7.25
44	Sander Berge	7.25
45	Ilkay Gundogan	7.25
46	Fred	7.00
47	James McArthur	7.00
48	Romain Saiss	7.00
49	Etienne Capoue	6.75
50	Isaac Hayden	6.75
51	Declan Rice	6.75
52	Ruben Neves	6.50
53	Jefferson Lerma	6.25
54	Ryan Fraser	6.25
55	Marc Albrighton	6.25
56	Solly March	6.00
57	Aaron Mooy	6.00
58	Miguel Almiron	6.00
59	Leandro Trossard	5.75
60	Cheikhou Kouyate	5.75
61	Matteo Guendouzi	5.75
62	Fabinho	5.50
63	Ruben Loftus-Cheek	5.25
64	Kenny McLean	5.25
65	Mark Noble	5.25
66	Pascal Gross	5.00
67	Davy Propper	5.00
68	Stuart Armstrong	5.00
69	Bernard	4.75
70	Lucas Moura	4.75
71	Ashley Westwood	4.50
72	Felipe Anderson	4.50
73	Lewis Cook	4.50
74	Phil Foden	4.50
75	Fernandinho	4.50
76	Yves Bissouma	4.25
77	Morgan Schneiderlin	4.25
78	Robert Snodgrass	4.00
79	Harry Wilson	4.00
80	James McCarthy	4.00
81	Georginio Wijnaldum	4.00
82	Alexander Tettey	4.00
83	Keinan Davis	4.00
84	David Brooks	4.00
85	Tanguy Ndombele	3.75
86	Alex Iwobi	3.75
87	Pablo Fornals	3.75
88	Ainsley Maitland-Niles	3.75
89	Daniel James	3.50
90	Manuel Lanzini	3.50
91	Erik Lamela	3.50
92	Naby Keita	3.50
93	Nabil Bentaleb	3.25
94	Nemanja Matic	3.25
95	Sofiane Boufal	3.25
96	Jack Cork	3.25
97	Will Hughes	3.25
98	Leander Dendoncker	3.00
99	Demarai Gray	3.00
100	Andros Townsend	3.00
101	Tomas Soucek	2.75
102	Giovani Lo Celso	2.75
103	Gabriel Martinelli	2.75
104	Hamza Choudhury	2.75
105	Tom Davies	2.75
106	Roberto Pereyra	2.75
107	Mario Vrancic	2.50
108	Luka Milivojevic	2.50
109	Granit Xhaka	2.50
110	Adam Lallana	2.25
111	James Milner	2.25
112	Eric Dier	2.25
113	Moritz Leitner	2.00
114	Oriol Romeu	2.00
115	Dennis Praet	1.75
116	Junior Stanislas	1.75
117	Dan Gosling	1.75
118	Dale Stephens	1.75
119	Jeff Hendrick	1.75
120	Harry Winks	1.75
121	Valentino Lazaro	1.50
122	Nathaniel Chalobah	1.50
123	Billy Gilmour	1.25
124	Jairo Riedewald	1.25
125	Muhamed Besic	1.25
126	Daniel Podence	1.00
127	Joseph Willock	1.00
128	Ben Osborn	0.75
129	Robbie Brady	0.75
130	Gedson Fernandes	0.75
131	Marco Stiepermann	0.75
132	Max Meyer	0.50
133	Henri Lansbury	0.25
134	Aaron Lennon	0.25
135	Ignacio Pussetto	0.25
136	Josh Brownhill	0.00

Forwards

1	Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	31.50
2	Nicolas Pepe	23.75
3	Raheem Sterling	18.00
4	Marcus Rashford	17.50
5	Jamie Vardy	16.50
6	Mbwana Samatta	16.50
7	Danny Ings	16.25
8	Alexandre Lacazette	16.00
9	Gabriel Jesus	15.25
10	Tammy Abraham	14.75
11	Anthony Martial	14.00
12	Raul Jimenez	13.75
13	Mohamed Salah	12.75
14	Oliver McBurnie	12.75
15	Son Heung-Min	12.25
16	Troy Deeney	12.25
17	Richarlison	12.25
18	Adama Traore	12.00
19	Sadio Mane	11.75
20	Allan Saint-Maximin	11.75
21	David McGoldrick	11.50
22	Shane Long	11.00
23	Sebastien Haller	9.75
24	Wilfried Zaha	9.50
25	Leroy Sane	9.50
26	Harry Kane	9.25
27	Roberto Firmino	9.00
28	Sergio Aguero	8.50
29	Billy Sharp	8.50
30	Lys Mousset	8.25
31	Jarrod Bowen	7.75
32	Dominic Calvert-Lewin	7.50
33	Teemu Pukki	7.50
34	Ismaila Sarr	7.50
35	Eddie Nketiah	7.50
36	Pedro	7.00
37	Joshua King	7.00
38	Bukayo Saka	6.75
39	Dwight McNeil	6.50
40	Joelinton	6.50
41	Jordan Ayew	5.75
42	Neal Maupay	5.50
43	Christian Benteke	5.50
44	Kelechi Iheanacho	5.25
45	Callum Wilson	5.25
46	Olivier Giroud	5.25
47	Steven Bergwijn	4.25
48	Divock Origi	3.00
49	Andy Carroll	3.00
50	Andriy Yarmolenko	3.00
51	Jay Rodriguez	3.00
52	Pedro Neto	2.50
53	Aaron Connolly	2.50
54	Michael Obafemi	2.25
55	Mason Greenwood	2.25
56	Moise Kean	2.00
57	Che Adams	2.00
58	Dominic Solanke	1.75
59	Steven Alzate	1.75
60	Dwight Gayle	1.75
61	Odion Ighalo	1.50
62	Josip Drmic	1.25
63	Glenn Murray	1.00
64	Takumi Minamino	1.00
65	Danny Welbeck	0.75
66	Matej Vydra	0.50
67	Indiana Vassilev	0.50
68	Adam Idah	0.00

The Process

Players rated by PremierInjuries.com as having a 50% chance of playing (or lower) were assumed to not have any involvement in a game. Scores are not given for players who are not thought to play (e.g. Hudson-Odoi in gameweek 30). Bookmakers odds were used as a basis for the match result, with individual intuition then added to predict a score. Substitutions were projected based on this match result, so, for example, if it was predicted that Tottenham would be losing/lose to Manchester United then the prediction of Jose Mourinho’s substitutes would reflect this and be different than if it was predicted that Tottenham would be beating/beat Manchester United.

Average values for each relevant stat were calculated and then adjusted based on the upcoming fixture. As a rudimentary check on the validity of scores, projected scores as a sum for all players, and then for each position, were calculated and compared with previous weeks to ensure similarity. That said, it is all but impossible and illogical to predict extreme outcomes, and hence, no player actually exceeds a score of 18 points in a single game (even though clearly there will be some that do). Likewise, there will undoubtedly be a few surprise results that are not built into the projections.

The prediction of a clean sheet is arguably the most difficult and contentious aspect of projections (see the Bournemouth and Crystal Palace defenders so high up the list!), and therefore may need amending in the future.

Wondering who the best current Draft Premier League players are to target? Look no further than our Top 150 Player Rankings!

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EPL Statistics