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Fantasy EPL Player Projections: Gameweek 30

Football is notoriously hard to predict, and as such, player projections for the fantasy draft game are rare. With so few goals scored, upsets tend to happen more than in other sports, whilst the limited use of substitutes also makes it easy to misjudge the amount of playing time an individual will get. Add these to the fact that any position can and does contribute to almost all aspects of the game (unlike in many American sports), as well as the fact that one goal can have a monumental impact on a player’s score (e.g. a goalkeeper can go from +8 to -2 with one kick), and you have a recipe for disaster.

So, with that all said, I present to you Fantrax EPL’s first-ever attempt at gameweek projections. Please go easy on them!


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Gameweek 30 Player Projections

(Note: all numbers are based on Togga scoring. The process explaining these projections can be found at the foot of the article).

Goalkeepers

1 Ederson 20.25
2 Bernd Leno 14.50
3 Aaron Ramsdale 14.25
4 Vicente Guaita 14.25
5 Dean Henderson 8.00
6 Martin Dubravka 6.00
7 Nick Pope 4.00
8 David de Gea 4.00
9 Tim Krul 4.00
10 Alex McCarthy 4.00
11 Hugo Lloris 4.00
12 Ben Foster 4.00
13 Lukasz Fabianski 4.00
14 Pepe Reina 2.50
15 Jordan Pickford 2.00
16 Alisson 2.00
17 Rui Patricio 2.00
18 Mat Ryan 0.00
19 Kepa Arrizabalaga 0.00
20 Kasper Schmeichel 0.00

 

Defenders

1 Diego Rico 17.25
2 Enda Stevens 15.75
3 Marcos Alonso 15.50
4 George Baldock 15.50
5 Chris Basham 15.50
6 Joao Cancelo 15.50
7 Jack O’Connell 15.25
8 Adam Smith 14.25
9 Shkodran Mustafi 14.25
10 Nathan Ake 14.00
11 Trent Alexander-Arnold 13.75
12 Steve Cook 13.50
13 Matt Targett 13.50
14 Patrick van Aanholt 13.00
15 Gary Cahill 12.50
16 Benjamin Mendy 12.25
17 Cesar Azpilicueta 12.00
18 Joel Ward 11.50
19 Nicolas Otamendi 11.50
20 Matt Doherty 11.25
21 Scott Dann 11.00
22 John Egan 10.75
23 Willy Boly 10.25
24 Frederic Guilbert 10.25
25 John Stones 10.25
26 Aymeric Laporte 10.00
27 Kyle Walker 10.00
28 Lucas Digne 9.75
29 Conor Coady 8.75
30 Andrew Robertson 8.75
31 Bjorn Engels 8.25
32 Ben Chilwell 8.00
33 Virgil van Dijk 8.00
34 John Lundstram 8.00
35 Harry Maguire 7.75
36 Fabian Balbuena 7.50
37 Ryan Bertrand 7.00
38 Jonny 6.75
39 Aaron Wan-Bissaka 6.50
40 Serge Aurier 6.50
41 James Justin 6.25
42 Djibril Sidibe 6.25
43 Jack Stephens 6.00
44 Federico Fernandez 6.00
45 Antonio Rudiger 6.00
46 Yan Valery 5.75
47 Jan Bednarek 5.50
48 Issa Diop 5.25
49 Kurt Zouma 5.25
50 Jonny Evans 5.25
51 Emerson 5.25
52 Tyrone Mings 5.25
53 Jeremy Ngakia 5.00
54 Michael Keane 5.00
55 Pablo Mari 5.00
56 Aaron Cresswell 4.75
57 Adam Masina 4.50
58 Jamaal Lascelles 4.00
59 Christian Kabasele 4.00
60 Kieran Tierney 4.00
61 Caglar Soyuncu 3.75
62 Javier Manquillo 3.25
63 Seamus Coleman 3.25
64 Mason Holgate 3.00
65 Danny Rose 3.00
66 Sokratis 3.00
67 Japhet Tanganga 2.75
68 Jeffrey Schlupp 2.75
69 Joseph Gomez 2.75
70 Grant Hanley 2.50
71 Jamal Lewis 2.50
72 Craig Dawson 2.50
73 James Tarkowski 2.50
74 Luke Shaw 2.25
75 Max Aarons 2.25
76 Kiko Femenia 2.00
77 Brandon Williams 2.00
78 Ruben Vinagre 2.00
79 Victor Lindelof 1.75
80 David Luiz 1.75
81 Ben Mee 1.00
82 Craig Cathcart 1.00
83 Hector Bellerin 0.75
84 Adam Webster 0.75
85 Dan Burn 0.75
86 Ben Davies 0.50
87 Matthew Lowton 0.50
88 Toby Alderweireld 0.50
89 Erik Pieters 0.50
90 Sead Kolasinac 0.50
91 Charlie Taylor 0.25
92 Phil Bardsley -0.25
93 Davinson Sanchez -0.75
94 Neil Taylor -0.75
95 Lewis Dunk -1.50
96 Martin Montoya -1.75

 

Midfielders

1 Kevin De Bruyne 35.50
2 Jack Grealish 30.50
3 John McGinn 24.00
4 Mesut Ozil 19.50
5 James Maddison 19.00
6 David Silva 19.00
7 Bruno Fernandes 17.75
8 Riyad Mahrez 17.25
9 Christian Pulisic 17.00
10 John Fleck 17.00
11 Anwar El Ghazi 15.75
12 Jonjo Shelvey 15.25
13 Oliver Norwood 15.00
14 Mason Mount 14.00
15 Dani Ceballos 14.00
16 James Ward-Prowse 13.75
17 Ross Barkley 13.25
18 Harvey Barnes 11.75
19 Bernardo Silva 11.75
20 Joao Moutinho 10.75
21 Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 10.25
22 Emiliano Buendia 10.25
23 Trezeguet 10.25
24 Youri Tielemans 10.00
25 Paul Pogba 10.00
26 Wilfred Ndidi 9.75
27 N’Golo Kante 9.75
28 Marvelous Nakamba 9.75
29 Douglas Luiz 9.50
30 Mateo Kovacic 9.00
31 Michail Antonio 9.00
32 Rodrigo 9.00
33 Oleksandr Zinchenko 9.00
34 Conor Hourihane 8.75
35 Nathan Redmond 8.50
36 Matt Ritchie 8.25
37 Gylfi Sigurdsson 8.00
38 Ondrej Duda 8.00
39 Abdoulaye Doucoure 8.00
40 Jordan Henderson 7.50
41 Scott McTominay 7.25
42 Todd Cantwell 7.25
43 Diogo Jota 7.25
44 Sander Berge 7.25
45 Ilkay Gundogan 7.25
46 Fred 7.00
47 James McArthur 7.00
48 Romain Saiss 7.00
49 Etienne Capoue 6.75
50 Isaac Hayden 6.75
51 Declan Rice 6.75
52 Ruben Neves 6.50
53 Jefferson Lerma 6.25
54 Ryan Fraser 6.25
55 Marc Albrighton 6.25
56 Solly March 6.00
57 Aaron Mooy 6.00
58 Miguel Almiron 6.00
59 Leandro Trossard 5.75
60 Cheikhou Kouyate 5.75
61 Matteo Guendouzi 5.75
62 Fabinho 5.50
63 Ruben Loftus-Cheek 5.25
64 Kenny McLean 5.25
65 Mark Noble 5.25
66 Pascal Gross 5.00
67 Davy Propper 5.00
68 Stuart Armstrong 5.00
69 Bernard 4.75
70 Lucas Moura 4.75
71 Ashley Westwood 4.50
72 Felipe Anderson 4.50
73 Lewis Cook 4.50
74 Phil Foden 4.50
75 Fernandinho 4.50
76 Yves Bissouma 4.25
77 Morgan Schneiderlin 4.25
78 Robert Snodgrass 4.00
79 Harry Wilson 4.00
80 James McCarthy 4.00
81 Georginio Wijnaldum 4.00
82 Alexander Tettey 4.00
83 Keinan Davis 4.00
84 David Brooks 4.00
85 Tanguy Ndombele 3.75
86 Alex Iwobi 3.75
87 Pablo Fornals 3.75
88 Ainsley Maitland-Niles 3.75
89 Daniel James 3.50
90 Manuel Lanzini 3.50
91 Erik Lamela 3.50
92 Naby Keita 3.50
93 Nabil Bentaleb 3.25
94 Nemanja Matic 3.25
95 Sofiane Boufal 3.25
96 Jack Cork 3.25
97 Will Hughes 3.25
98 Leander Dendoncker 3.00
99 Demarai Gray 3.00
100 Andros Townsend 3.00
101 Tomas Soucek 2.75
102 Giovani Lo Celso 2.75
103 Gabriel Martinelli 2.75
104 Hamza Choudhury 2.75
105 Tom Davies 2.75
106 Roberto Pereyra 2.75
107 Mario Vrancic 2.50
108 Luka Milivojevic 2.50
109 Granit Xhaka 2.50
110 Adam Lallana 2.25
111 James Milner 2.25
112 Eric Dier 2.25
113 Moritz Leitner 2.00
114 Oriol Romeu 2.00
115 Dennis Praet 1.75
116 Junior Stanislas 1.75
117 Dan Gosling 1.75
118 Dale Stephens 1.75
119 Jeff Hendrick 1.75
120 Harry Winks 1.75
121 Valentino Lazaro 1.50
122 Nathaniel Chalobah 1.50
123 Billy Gilmour 1.25
124 Jairo Riedewald 1.25
125 Muhamed Besic 1.25
126 Daniel Podence 1.00
127 Joseph Willock 1.00
128 Ben Osborn 0.75
129 Robbie Brady 0.75
130 Gedson Fernandes 0.75
131 Marco Stiepermann 0.75
132 Max Meyer 0.50
133 Henri Lansbury 0.25
134 Aaron Lennon 0.25
135 Ignacio Pussetto 0.25
136 Josh Brownhill 0.00

 

Forwards

1 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 31.50
2 Nicolas Pepe 23.75
3 Raheem Sterling 18.00
4 Marcus Rashford 17.50
5 Jamie Vardy 16.50
6 Mbwana Samatta 16.50
7 Danny Ings 16.25
8 Alexandre Lacazette 16.00
9 Gabriel Jesus 15.25
10 Tammy Abraham 14.75
11 Anthony Martial 14.00
12 Raul Jimenez 13.75
13 Mohamed Salah 12.75
14 Oliver McBurnie 12.75
15 Son Heung-Min 12.25
16 Troy Deeney 12.25
17 Richarlison 12.25
18 Adama Traore 12.00
19 Sadio Mane 11.75
20 Allan Saint-Maximin 11.75
21 David McGoldrick 11.50
22 Shane Long 11.00
23 Sebastien Haller 9.75
24 Wilfried Zaha 9.50
25 Leroy Sane 9.50
26 Harry Kane 9.25
27 Roberto Firmino 9.00
28 Sergio Aguero 8.50
29 Billy Sharp 8.50
30 Lys Mousset 8.25
31 Jarrod Bowen 7.75
32 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 7.50
33 Teemu Pukki 7.50
34 Ismaila Sarr 7.50
35 Eddie Nketiah 7.50
36 Pedro 7.00
37 Joshua King 7.00
38 Bukayo Saka 6.75
39 Dwight McNeil 6.50
40 Joelinton 6.50
41 Jordan Ayew 5.75
42 Neal Maupay 5.50
43 Christian Benteke 5.50
44 Kelechi Iheanacho 5.25
45 Callum Wilson 5.25
46 Olivier Giroud 5.25
47 Steven Bergwijn 4.25
48 Divock Origi 3.00
49 Andy Carroll 3.00
50 Andriy Yarmolenko 3.00
51 Jay Rodriguez 3.00
52 Pedro Neto 2.50
53 Aaron Connolly 2.50
54 Michael Obafemi 2.25
55 Mason Greenwood 2.25
56 Moise Kean 2.00
57 Che Adams 2.00
58 Dominic Solanke 1.75
59 Steven Alzate 1.75
60 Dwight Gayle 1.75
61 Odion Ighalo 1.50
62 Josip Drmic 1.25
63 Glenn Murray 1.00
64 Takumi Minamino 1.00
65 Danny Welbeck 0.75
66 Matej Vydra 0.50
67 Indiana Vassilev 0.50
68 Adam Idah 0.00

The Process

Players rated by PremierInjuries.com as having a 50% chance of playing (or lower) were assumed to not have any involvement in a game. Scores are not given for players who are not thought to play (e.g. Hudson-Odoi in gameweek 30). Bookmakers odds were used as a basis for the match result, with individual intuition then added to predict a score. Substitutions were projected based on this match result, so, for example, if it was predicted that Tottenham would be losing/lose to Manchester United then the prediction of Jose Mourinho’s substitutes would reflect this and be different than if it was predicted that Tottenham would be beating/beat Manchester United.

Average values for each relevant stat were calculated and then adjusted based on the upcoming fixture. As a rudimentary check on the validity of scores, projected scores as a sum for all players, and then for each position, were calculated and compared with previous weeks to ensure similarity. That said, it is all but impossible and illogical to predict extreme outcomes, and hence, no player actually exceeds a score of 18 points in a single game (even though clearly there will be some that do). Likewise, there will undoubtedly be a few surprise results that are not built into the projections.

The prediction of a clean sheet is arguably the most difficult and contentious aspect of projections (see the Bournemouth and Crystal Palace defenders so high up the list!), and therefore may need amending in the future.

 

Wondering who the best current Draft Premier League players are to target? Look no further than our Top 150 Player Rankings!

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