We’ve started off the month of March 3-2. We went 3-0 on our last article. Paolo Banchero went off for our OVER, Spencer Dinwiddie hit our UNDER vs. Boston, and Anthony Edwards barely hit our OVER. That was then. This is now. Onward! With prop bets, we don’t need to wait for season-long storylines to play out. Every day is a new day. Fantrax wants to help you win a bit of money, so we will be giving you NBA Player Prop Bets every week. We’ll shy away from keying in on any particular sportsbook, as we know odds vary, and so do props. We’ll focus on our projections, and allow you to find your best odds. Let’s get into today’s prop bets.
NBA Player Prop Bets for March 6
Al Horford UNDER 31 Points + Rebounds + Assists:
The Celtics take on the Cavs tonight, in a matchup between the East’s top two teams (according to net rankings). These two faced each other on 3/1, with the Celtics winning 117-113 (at home). Al Horford had an amazing performance and dropped 23/11/3, on 80% shooting from the field and 6 for 8 from the three-point line. I’m here to tell you, that’s not happening again. It’s incredibly unlikely to recreate a near-perfect ceiling game against the league’s top defense, and slowest-pace team. On the road. On top of that, Al Horford has hit UNDER 31 PRA in five of his last seven games. Jarrett Allen and Mobley present a formidable frontcourt defense and they won’t allow Horford to go off like that again. You obviously shouldn’t gameplan for Horford when Tatum is on the same team, but the matchup and law of averages are on our side.
James Harden OVER 37 Points + Rebounds + Assists:
The Sixers play the Pacers tonight. That’s pretty much the thesis for this OVER to hit. While I respect that the Pacers manage to keep just about every game close (they just beat the Bulls at the buzzer yesterday), the Pacers are 24th in defense and 9th in pace. On top of that, the Sixers are a top-ten defense, a top-ten offense, and are in a pace-up matchup. James Harden has been playing like the James Harden of old, recently, and has had OVER 37 PRA in three of his last five matchups. He’s shot over 50% from three in the month of March, is averaging 30 PPG, and just under 10 AST in the month. You have to respect his role in this offense and this matchup.
Damian Lillard OVER 40 Points:
The Blazers play the Detroit Pistons tonight. If I had my way, we’d have relegation in the NBA, with the EuroLeague being the next tier below. We’d have the Pistons out of our faces by the end of the season. I’d rather watch Real Madrid Basketball. For now, Dame gets to play against the league’s 28th-ranked defense and the 13th-fastest pace. But honestly, Dame is one of those players who can thrive in any matchup. He dropped 71, 41, and 41 in three of his past five games. In the other two games, he dropped 33 and 25. There’s some blowout risk involved in this matchup, but I wouldn’t put it past Dame to drop 40 in three quarters. I like our odds here.