NBA DFS Plays for Monday, 3/2: Harden in the Garden
Friday’s article went pretty well, with Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Harry Giles, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert all providing nice value. We actually have a few of the same names here and it’s time for these DFS sites to start adjusting their pricing! With that in mind, let’s get into our 3/2 NBA DFS plays of the day!
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3/2 NBA DFS Point Guards
Ja Morant, MEM at ATL
DK ($7,200) FD ($6,900)
Morant actually found his way into our article on Friday and he’s been rewarding me all weekend long. In fact, Morant averaged 50.4 DK points per game in the two games over the weekend, recapturing the form that made him the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. What’s really made him valuable are all of the absences to this lineup, posting a 27 percent usage rate with this current roster. That form and usage make him very intriguing against Atlanta, with the Hawks sitting 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed.
Mike Conley, UTA at CLE
DK ($5,400) FD ($6,100)
There has been a lot of talk about Conley struggling in Utah but he’s quietly turned things around recently. In fact, Conley has at least 28 DraftKings points in seven of the eight games since re-entering the starting lineup. That’s the guy we loved in Memphis and that’s brilliant production from such an affordable player. Not to mention, he faces a Cleveland team who sits 29th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing PGs.
3/2 NBA DFS Shooting Guards
James Harden, HOU at NYK
DK ($10,500) FD ($10,800)
I rarely recommend Harden because of the high price tag but I love it when his price gets to this level. This is a dude who should always be $12,000 and it’s nice to find a guy with 80-point upside in this price range. The main reason we like him today is that he gets to face the Knicks, with New York sitting 23rd in defensive efficiency. That was clear when Harden dropped 61 fantasy points on them in their one meeting earlier this season. A powerhouse like Harden is really scary in a place like Madison Square Garden too. In his last game at that amazing arena, Harden collected 61 points, 15 rebounds, four assists and five steals in arguably the best performance of his career.
Gary Trent Jr, POR at ORL
DK ($4,300) FD ($4,200)
With Damian Lillard still out, Trent has found himself in a nice role for the Trail Blazers. If you look at the nine games where Trent’s played at least 30 minutes, he’s averaging 29 fantasy points per game. That’s stellar news with Trent averaging 34 minutes a game across his last five fixtures which directly correlates with Lillard’s injury. That’s hard to overlook for a player below $5,000 and Orlando owning a 20th OPRK against opposing shooting guards only adds to his intrigue.
3/2 NBA DFS Small Forwards
Dillon Brooks, MEM at ATL
DK ($5,300) FD ($5,800)
This is the best game on this slate to stack and we’ll go over that more thoroughly in the next write-up. What we like about Brooks is that he’s become one of the focal points of the offense, with Jaren Jackson Jr and Brandon Clarke sidelined. That’s forced him to lead the team with a 28 percent ownership while averaging 24 shots and 35 minutes played since they went down. That’s also led to a 29-point floor across those three fixtures which looks even better against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
De’Andre Hunter, ATL vs, MEM
DK ($5,000) FD ($4,600)
This is my favorite game on this slate to stack because we have two of the fastest-paced teams in the league and two of the worst defenses around. In fact, Memphis sits 23rd in points allowed and seventh in pace while Atlanta ranks 29th in points surrendered and sixth in pace. That’s why we have a narrow spread and 240-point total, making it the most enticing game on this slate. That’s huge for all of these guys, especially Hunter. The rookie is averaging 29 DraftKings points per game across 36.4 minutes of action over his last eight games played. That means he’s quite a value around $5,000 and he should be used until it rises closer to $6,000.
3/2 NBA DFS Power Forwards
Robert Covington, HOU at NYK
DK ($6,200) FD ($6,200)
Covington has been an absolute stud since joining the Rockets and it’s strange that his price hasn’t risen more. Not only has he scored at least 27 DK points in 11 of his last 12 games, Covington is also averaging 37.8 fantasy points per game across his last six outings in total. Much of that has been attributed to hustle statistics and it’s scary to think how good he could be if he improved on his 38 percent shooting in that stretch. That pairs beautifully with this matchup, with the Knicks surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing PFs.
Thaddeus Young, CHI vs. DAL
DK ($5,900) FD ($5,800)
This frontcourt has been destroyed by injuries and it’s made Thaddeus fantasy-relevant yet again. Scoring at least 21 DraftKings points in 14-straight games is impressive on its own, but he’s also averaging 29.4 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s no surprise when you consider the absences of Otto Porter Jr and Lauri Markkanen, forcing Young into over 32 minutes of action in that span. We also don’t mind that he faces a 16th-ranked Dallas defense with a lackluster frontcourt.
3/2 NBA DFS Centers
Jonas Valanciunas, MEM at ATL
DK ($6,800) FD ($7,200)
This is the final piece to our game stack and JV might have the highest upside of the group. The reason for that is because he’s the only big man left in Memphis, with JJJ and Clarke still sidelined. That has led to Valanciunas recording three-straight double-doubles since they went down, accruing 45 points and 45 rebounds over his last two games in total. That’s an amazing run and it’s really frightening for an Atlanta club who allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Myles Turner, IND at SAN
DK ($5,200) FD ($5,800)
Turner is finally starting to turn things around and he’s due for another price bump with his recent form. In fact, Turner has at least 23 fantasy points in eight-straight games while averaging 33 DK points per game in that span. That’s amazing considering that he’s scoring just 10.5 raw points per game in that stretch, posting elite defensive statistics. That means if he could score 20 raw points, he has legitimate 40-point potential. The matchup against San Antonio is the icing on the cake, with the Spurs ranked 24th in defensive efficiency.
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