The staff at Fantrax has been working hard all off-season to bring you the most up to date and relevant fantasy baseball information for the 2024 season. From injury reports to rankings, the draft kit is full of useful information. Earlier this off-season, I looked at third base and identified three players likely to be considered busts. Then, I looked at shortstop and identified sleeper targets. Up now are the shortstop busts. These are three shortstop-eligible players fantasy managers should be avoiding at their current draft price.
2024 SS Busts
Bo Bichette- SS, TOR
Let’s just preface this section by stating that Bo Bichette is a very good baseball player. He has a career batting average of .299 and he has never posted a wRC+ under 120. However, being a successful Major League player is different than providing elite fantasy production. That is what you are hoping for when you draft Bichette at his current draft price. Bichette is being taken as the eighth shortstop off the board inside of the top 40 picks. At that price, Bichette is likely to be a bust for fantasy baseball.
The perception around Bichette, when he entered the league, was that he would be a perennial 20/20 player with strong contact skills. He was a fantasy star in 2021 when he hit 29 home runs, stole 25 bases, and batted .298. That season has inflated his fantasy value for the last two years.
The power has slowly declined from 29 home runs to 24 home runs, all the way down to 20 home runs last season. The stolen base decline is even more concerning. Bichette only stole five bases last season. For reference, Rafael Devers stole five bases last season. Bichette’s sprint speed has declined from the 74th percentile in 2021 down to the 42nd percentile in 2023. Bichette’s quad injury in 2023 likely played a part in his stolen base decline, but his sprint speed has been declining steadily.
Fantasy managers need to adjust their expectations surrounding Bichette moving forward. He is no longer a threat to steal 20 bases and should not be viewed as having that potential. His success rate on the basepaths over the past two seasons is just 61%. Drafting Bichette at his current price is expecting stolen base production. Fantasy managers are setting themselves up for disappointment.
Bichette’s chase rate is another concern that has been consistent throughout his Major League career. He chased over 36.4% of pitches last season especially struggling to lay off of breaking balls. As you can see, by this PLV chart, his decision-making at the plate is some of the worst in baseball.
This has not impacted Bichette up to this point in his career but adds an element of risk to his profile. His batted ball profile supports his above-average BABIPs, but what if his luck changes a bit? Thanks to his high chase rate, his average could come flying down with just a bit of bad luck.
Bichette’s lack of base stealing and suspect plate discipline make him an incredibly risky pick inside of the top 40. He has been an excellent Major League player up to this point in his career, but he is somebody I am avoiding in all drafts. Fantasy managers are better off waiting for 20 picks and grabbing Matt McLain or waiting 40 picks and selecting Ha-Seong Kim. Bichette is the highest-drafted shortstop that is going to bust in 2024.
Thairo Estrada- 2B/SS, SFG
On a Giants team filled with platoons and analytics, Estrada played a utility role in 2021 before seeing his playing time increase in 2022. Thanks in part to his savvy defense, Estrada opened up the 2023 season as the Giants Opening Day second baseman. During the first half, Estrada looked like one of the biggest steals from early drafts. He was locked into an everyday role and was slashing .272/.327/.434 at the All-Star Break. His slash line was not the only thing that looked nice. Estrada was experiencing a bit of a power outburst with nine home runs and his stolen base total sat at 18.
Unfortunately, Estrada suffered a broken hand in a game against the Mets on July 2. He was forced to miss a little over a month and did not seem like the same player upon returning. His batting average stayed stable at .268 but all of his other numbers dipped. He hit just five home runs the rest of the way while going just 5/8 on the basepaths. Many are chalking up his second half to playing hurt. He is still going as SS16 off the board around pick 142 in drafts. At this price, Estrada is sure to be a bust for fantasy managers.
No offense to those reading, but the injury explanation feels a bit lazy. Let me explain why. Starting with the obvious, speed is not impacted by a broken hand. A lot of Estrada’s value stems from being a 20+ stolen base threat. However, his stolen base totals dipped significantly during the second half and the concerns go further than that. 2023 marked the second consecutive season that Estrada has seen his sprint speed decline. He now sits in the 69th percentile and speed is not a stat that returns later in a career.
The power that Estrada showed off during the first half was the biggest surprise. Estrada has never been known for making hard contact at any point in his career. Looking at the numbers, nothing seemed to change at the start of the season. Before his injury, Estrada had an average exit velocity of 86.2 mph and a barrel rate of 5.6%. Neither of these numbers suggests that a power outbreak was warranted. Estrada barreled up the ball 12 times during the first half. Nine of those went for a home run. This 75% clip was bound to come crashing down in the second half.
This aids the idea that his second-half struggles were deserved regression as opposed to an impact from his hand injury. His batted ball data from the second half did get worse but not by much. His average exit velocity dropped to 85.6 mph and his barrel rate was 3.7%. The biggest change was his ground ball rate increasing again. His ground ball rate during the first half was 40.8%. This number jumped to 48.4% in the second half. Is this a result of the hand injury? That possibility exists, but his career numbers suggest that 48.4% is much closer to what we should be expecting from him. His second half merely seems like his numbers evening out after an out-of-character first half.
Many in the fantasy industry are citing Estrada’s first half when evaluating his 2024 value. While his hand injury could have caused issues, his second-half numbers align much closer with what we have seen from Estrada throughout his career. Declining speed and suspect power make him an easy player to fade at ADP. Fantasy managers are sure to be disappointed if they draft Estrada inside of the top 150 picks in drafts. He is a bust candidate at both shortstop and second base for fantasy baseball in 2024.
Xander Bogaerts-SS, SDP
Assigned the same task last year, I identified Bogaerts as a bust candidate prior to the 2023 season. Joining a new team in a less favorable ballpark with skills he had been outperforming for years, it seemed like a logical conclusion that Bogaerts was set up to disappoint fantasy managers in 2023. However, Bogaerts maintained a wRC+ 20% above the league average. He finished as the 10th ranked shortstop in all of fantasy. Somehow, despite his surprising season, the case for Bogaerts being a fantasy baseball bust has become even more obvious in 2024.
Bogaerts’ surface stats really took off during the second half of 2023. After the All-Star Break, Bogaerts slashed .321/.364/.493 with nine home runs and 10 stolen bases. He was incredible for fantasy managers which has inflated his draft value again in 2024. The easy explanation is that Bogaerts grew more comfortable as the season moved along leading to his spike in numbers during the second half. While comfort is important, this can sometimes be a lazy explanation. Explaining success based on perceived emotions is how you miss red flags that would usually smack you in the face.
Looking first at Bogaerts’ quality of contact, it got worse during the second half of the season. His barrel rate dropped to 4.9% and his average exit velocity fell to 87.6 mph. There was no significant change in his batted ball distribution that would indicate more success should be expected. Digging a bit deeper, despite the impressive slash line, all of Bogaerts’ skills seemed to trend down in the second half. PLV shows how poor his power was all season and how his plate discipline declined after a fast start.
The only real change from the first half to the second half was his BABIP. During the second half, Bogaerts’ BABIP spiked from .293 to .493. Considering his line drive and sat below 20% for the entire season, there is no reason to believe that Bogaerts should continue to run BABIPs above the league average.
Taking a step back and looking at Bogaerts’ season as a whole the red flags pop out even more. Since 2019, Bogaerts’ sprint speed has declined steadily each season. His 19 stolen bases from this season represent his highest mark since 2017. Sure, the new stolen base rules help, but with declining speed, it might be foolish to expect more than 12-15 in 2024.
The next flag is power. I have talked a lot about home runs per barrel rate in my articles this season. I encourage you to check out those findings here. In 2023, Bogaerts pulled 13 barrels. 77% of those went for home runs which is well above the Major League average home run rate on pulled barrels. According to Statcast, his xHR last season was only 17. Petco is not a hitter-friendly park to play in and could cause more issues for Bogaerts in 2024.
Lastly, the biggest red flag is declining production against four-seam fastballs. As hitters age, production against four-seamers is one of the most important things to look for when factoring in decline. Jose Abreu began struggling with velocity and we all saw what happened to him last season. Bogaerts posted a run value of 17 and 22 off the four-seamer in 2018 and 2019. This declined to 8 in 2020, 5 in 2021, 3 in 2022, and -6 in 2023. His slugging percentage on the heater dropped all the way down to .406 last season.
Now 31, Bogaerts is entering his 10th year in the league. He has been a reliable fantasy asset for most of the past decade, but fantasy managers need to be proceeding with extreme caution in 2024. Bogaerts was able to stave off regression in 2023, but it is only a matter of time before it all catches up to him. Declining speed and contact metrics are never a good sign and avoiding him in drafts would be smart. He is currently going as SS13 in drafts which is too rich for my blood. I would much rather take Swanson or Volpe going 18 and 24 picks after him respectively. Bogaerts lands on the bust list again for 2024, we will see if this is more accurate than last season.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.