While the usual suspects remain at the top of the third base rankings, there are plenty of new faces adding intrigue. Elly De La Cruz has quickly become one of the most polarizing players in the sport while Gunnar Henderson and Royce Lewis are both going inside of the top six players at the position. With the sudden influx of youth, the position feels deeper than it has in the past. However, with youth comes unfamiliarity and the perceived notion of risk. The position may be deeper, but that does not mean every player is going to have a successful season. The biggest thing to avoid is drafting the players who are going to be labeled as busts following the season. This article identifies three third basemen who are likely to bust in 2024 and that fantasy managers should be avoiding.
Third Base Busts for 2024
Nolan Arenado- 3B, STL
Nolan Arenado has been a staple at the third base position for the past decade. Since making his Major League debut, Arenado has been one of the best third basemen both offensively and defensively. The fantasy community was worried Arenado would take a step back once he was traded out of Colorado following the 2020 season. He responded by hitting 34 home runs in 2021. As if that was not good enough, Arenado finished third in National League MVP voting in 2022.
This past season, Arenado did not have a bad season. He still hit 26 home runs with 93 RBIs. He hit .266 and slugged .459. His 107 wRC+ is above average by the league standard but is well below his career average of 120. In fact, his 26 home runs are the fewest he has hit since 2014. The 71 runs scored and 93 RBIs were also his lowest totals since 2014. Arenado turns 33 in April and there are plenty of reasons to believe his best days might be behind him.
Since leaving Coors Field, Arenado’s power output has been relatively average. Despite impressive home run totals, his underlying metrics have been pointing to regression for years. Looking at his quality of contact, Arenado’s barrel rate has been extremely pedestrian throughout his career. Since joining St. Louis his highest barrel rate was 8.2% in 2022. In 2021, Arenado saw 27 of his 34 barrels go for a home run. This 79% rate is well above the league average. His home run per barrel rate decreased significantly in 2022, but Arenado managed to hit eight home runs off of non-barreled balls. This number appropriately regressed down to one last season, but Arenado still managed to hit a home run on over 73% of his barrels. There is plenty of reason to believe that the 26 home runs he hit in 2023 could regress further in 2024.
As mentioned before, Arenado has never posted impressive power metrics. The one way he overcame mediocre quality of contact was hitting and pulling a lot of fly balls. Well, last year, Arenado saw his fly-ball percentage come crashing down. His average launch angle dropped by 4.8 degrees. Although his overall pull rate increased in 2023, his pull rate on fly balls decreased for the second consecutive season. This is another contributing factor in Arenado seeing his home run totals decrease. PLV shows how Arenado’s power decreased significantly as the season moved along last year:
Another area of concern is the spike in strikeout rate. Arenado’s strikeout rate increased by 4.9% in 2023 compared to 2022. His whiff rate increased slightly but the main increase came in his chase rate. After lowering his chase rate to 29% in 2022, Arenado has seen his chase rate increase for consecutive seasons up to 34.1%.
Early on in drafts, Arenado is going as the ninth third baseman off the board. After finishing as the 12th ranked third baseman last year and being labeled as a bust by many, this comes as a surprise. The name value provides fantasy managers with a level of safety. Walking out of your draft, you can think to yourself “I am set at third base, I have Nolan Arenado”. However, fantasy managers need to realize that times are changing. His offensive numbers are trending in the wrong direction and there is a good chance Arenado is a bust for your fantasy teams in 2024.
Jake Burger- 3B, MIA
Since making his Major League debut in 2021, it seems as if Jake Burger has never really gotten a chance to prove himself. The former first-round pick posted strong numbers in his return to the Minor Leagues in 2021 but entering 2023, he had never appeared in more than 51 games at the Major League level. Injuries and the disaster that was the White Sox 2023 season led to Burger getting a chance to show what he could do. He appeared in 88 games for the White Sox before being traded at the end of July to a competing Marlins team.
In those 88 games with the White Sox, he was a one-trick pony. Just about everything that Burger hit left the yard. He hit 25 home runs in just 323 plate appearances with a HR/FB% north of 32%. The downside to his power was a strikeout rate of 31.2% and a .214 batting average. Leaving Chicago (the 13th most homer-friendly ballpark for right-handed batters) for Miami (the 28th most friendly) did not seem like a good move for Burger’s fantasy value. In reality, Burger excelled with Miami. He crushed another nine home runs while batting .303. He lowered his strikeout rate by nearly 10% and posted the third-highest wRC+ amongst all third basemen from July 31 forward.
After his strong performance to end the season, many fantasy players are eager to draft Burger now. They need to pump the brakes here as Burger is primed to bust in 2024.
The biggest reason is the significant decrease in his power once Burger joined Miami. The first half of the season in Chicago was completely unsustainable no matter the ballpark. His 19%-barrel rate was bound to come down and did to 13.1% with Miami. This is still a strong number and should produce strong power numbers, but fantasy managers should not expect a repeat of 2023. Once Burger joined the Marlins, his HR/FB% was nearly cut in half. Miami is one of the most difficult parks to hit home runs in and this will not change in 2024. Once Burger joined Miami, his HR/600 pace was 25. This is a much more realistic expectation for 2024.
The biggest surprise for Burger was the average he started hitting for once joining the Marlins. Burger has never posted high batting averages, but this changed once he joined the Marlins. Should Burger be viewed as a .300 hitter moving forward? Absolutely not. Burger’s strikeout rate dropped significantly with the Marlins, but his underlying metrics do not support this. Burger’s season-long O-Swing% was 41.3%. This rate was 40% with the Marlins. His swinging strike rate on the season was 17.1%. This rate remained high at 16% with the Marlins. The marginal improvements Burger made should not have resulted in such a drastic change. Expect strikeout regression from his 2023 Marlins numbers.
The other factor bound to regress from Burger’s second half is his BABIP. With Miami, Burger posted a .354 BABIP. While Miami is a better park for singles than home runs, it is only slightly above average according to its park factor. Burger’s career average BABIP is .300. A number closer to this is much more realistic moving forward.
With power and average regression looming, there is little to be optimistic about for Burger in 2023. The biggest plus this season is his playing time outlook with very little competition on Miami’s roster. Burger is currently going as 3B15 in drafts over 100 picks earlier than Eugenio Suarez and Matt Chapman. Fantasy managers are setting themselves up for disappointment drafting Burger that high. He is a prime bust candidate for 2024.
Willi Castro- 3B/OF, MIN
Castro made his Major League debut back in 2019 with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a 154 wRC+ in 36 games during the shortened 202 season before struggling each of the next two seasons. He landed in Minnesota as a utility man and wound up appearing in 124 games.
Castro’s defensive versatility was huge for Minnesota. As the Twins dealt with major injuries throughout the season, Castro was able to fill whichever position was vacant at the time. He made starts at six different positions across the diamond primarily playing third base and the outfield. The biggest surprise was his offensive production. Castro wound up posting a 109 wRC+ with nine home runs and a .257 batting average. He really caught the eye of fantasy managers with his 33 stolen bases. Now looking at 2024, fantasy managers are hoping for a repeat of his stolen base production. Each season, fantasy managers chase steals from below-average offensive performers, and they wind up busting. Castro is primed to fill that role in 2024.
While Castro provided stolen base production throughout the season, the majority of his offensive production came in two months. In May, Castro slashed .319/.355/.500 and in September Castro hit .313/.398/.550. Each of those months saw Castro’s production carried by unsustainably high BABIPs. In May, his BABIP was .455. In September, his BABIP was .375. Outside of those two fantastic months, Castro slashed a lowly .214/.311/.325. Even with strong stolen base production, those kinds of numbers are detrimental to your fantasy team.
Castro’s 2024 outlook gets even worse once you realize that he is not even slated to start for Minnesota. With the return of Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton to the outfield, cracking the lineup just got a lot tougher. The team could utilize Castro in a platoon role with some of their left-handed bats but they also have Jose Miranda and prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin banging on the door. 124 games played was the second-highest total of Castro’s career and he still only managed to finish as the 26th-ranked third baseman according to FanGraphs Auction Calculator.
Currently, in early drafts Castro is going as the 26th third baseman off the board. While taking him at pick 312 is not going to ruin your fantasy draft, there are certainly better options to take. At best, Castro will fill in for a Minnesota starter while they are hurt and provide below-average offensive production with decent stolen base totals. That is the definition of a waiver wire pickup. Fantasy managers are better off taking a shot on young talents like Jordan Westburg, Brett Baty, and Ezequiel Duran. Regardless of draft cost, Castro is likely to be a major bust in 2024. Fantasy managers should be avoiding him in drafts.
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