“What if that guy played a full season?” We’ve all been here before. Trying to understand what potential outcomes could’ve happened is a good way to prepare for the ones that haven’t yet. The decision to trust a small sample size is risky though, and ultimately we all have to decide how much weight to give these obviously fluky (or are they?) performances. As we put 2023 firmly in the past, let’s take a look at some of the small sample stat lines you may have missed this past season that could help you in 2024.
In no way am I suggesting that the players below can sustain the success they found in small sample sizes last year. In fact, I’d say it’s likely impossible. Are their 2023 performances enough to make you take notice in 2024 though? That’s for you to decide.
3 Small Sample Oddities from 2023
Nelson Velasquez – OF, KC – And New AL Home Run King
Traded mid-season from the Cubs to the Royals, Velasquez had the best small sample size stat line from 2023. Had he played 162 games, he theoretically would’ve challenged the American League home run record set by Aaron Judge. Playing at a 62-HR pace for even some portion of the season should get you noticed though, right? WRONG! Apparently, almost anything can go under the radar in Kansas City. Velasquez hit his 17 homers last year despite a putrid .221 BABIP and a nearly 30% strikeout rate. The contact skills have never really been there to justify a quality hitter projection, but the power has always been there.
Velazquez doesn’t have the pedigree but a late-round flyer could get you some very cheap power in 2024.
Will Benson – OF, CIN – League Winning Power/Speed Combo
One of my favorite small sample size performances from 2023, Will Benson would’ve been one of baseball’s finest power/speed assets had he received 650 plate appearances. Find me a roster that wouldn’t like 22 homers and 38 steals. The reason Benson will never achieve these lofty numbers? He literally can’t hit left-handed pitching. How does a .400 OPS sound? I’m not even hungry for my lunch anymore. But against right-handed pitchers, Benson had a .938 OPS. Suddenly I’m starving. If Will Benson existed in a world where it was illegal to pitch left-handed, he’d be pre-steroid Barry Bonds.
Keep Benson in mind when you’re streaming hitters next summer. In daily lineup leagues, he can be an extremely sneaky value play.
Davis Schneider – 2B/3B, TOR – Prime Josh Donaldson 2.0
In a small sample size of 35 games last year, Schneider put up a .1008 OPS with a 55-double and 37-homer full-season pace, a strikingly similar stat line to a former Blue Jays MVP. Schneider spent most of his time playing second base but received reps at third base and in the outfield. He could potentially replace Matt Chapman if he leaves (as expected) in free agency. Keep in mind that Schneider had over a 30% strikeout rate in 141 plate appearances. He also found immediate success in August with a .426/.526/.894 line, followed up in September with a much less inspiring .174/.321/.406 triple slash.
While there’s certainly some boom potential with Scheider in 2024, he could just as easily bust and disappear from the league. Draft only as a late-round lottery ticket.