Value is relative. When preparing for your 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts, one of the main objectives is all about finding that value. With each draft choice, the plan is to select where their performance equals or exceeds their cost. In some situations, especially earlier in drafts, a bust becomes more readily apparent and noticeable. However, nothing should be taken lightly here. Over the next few paragraphs, with this in mind, we will take a look at some first base busts for 2024 Fantasy Baseball.
First Base Busts for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Knowing when to be out on a player is a tricky endeavor. What is clear, is the preference is it’s better to be a year too early rather than a year too late. When that player is Paul Goldschmidt and they have a lengthy track record, it becomes even more difficult. And then when there is news about said player visiting Driveline this winter and working on his swing, it becomes more challenging.
Even as Goldschmidt continues his decline in 2024, he won’t lose all fantasy value and relevance. But, he shouldn’t be the seventh first baseman going off the boards at the cost of an early sixth-round pick in 15-team leagues.
The career .293 hitter dropped down to .268 last year despite a .327 BABIP. Goldschmidt’s .267 xBA seemed to agree with the output. Looking at Goldschmidt in the second half, things were even worse as he hit just .246 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI. Overall, Goldschmidt’s power and run production did take a substantial dip in 2023. After averaging 33 home runs and 107 RBI in the last two years, the first baseman finished at just 25/80. Perhaps the biggest dip though came with his ISO. Taking a .260 mark from 2022 and a career .227 ISO into last year, Goldschmidt finished at just .179 last year.
With that being said, his 11.9% barrel rate and 50.7% hard-hit rate still catch your attention, but the warning signs are here. This is not to say that Goldschmidt won’t be a useful player, but we aren’t getting the same player of years past either.
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
This is, in part, a situation where the draft day cost is the problem. Power threats with Triston Casas and Spencer Torkelson can be acquired 20 or 30 picks after Christian Walker, and that informs my judgment. While I have nothing specific against Walker and what he offers, the young options are cheaper and offer up something the former doesn’t have; upside.
While we want to fill our roster with the most stats, we also want to procure value with each pick. This year, for Walker, that isn’t the case. At best, he meets his cost, but is that worth a top-80 pick?
Last year Walker hit .258 with 33 home runs and 103 RBI. At this point, it isn’t going to get any better than that. With a .250 xBA, we have a pretty good idea of where Walker sits. However, when taking a look at his expected stats, there are a few things that caught my attention.
Walker’s .497 slugging percentage certainly matches the power, but his .462 xSLG naturally generates some skepticism. The first baseman does a good job of barreling the ball, 11.4% of the time, but he doesn’t exactly hit the ball hard. With an average exit velocity of just 88 miles per hour, Walker ranks in the 23rd percentile. Equally as troubling is the fact that his sweet spot contact is in the 30th percentile.
Without going much further into Statcast territory, Walker has a four home run gap between his actual (34) and expected (30) production. To expand on that, 10 of those home runs were qualified as “doubters”, so last year’s performance was very likely his ceiling.
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
I tried. In looking at Cincinnati, I gave it a shot with Spencer Steer, but ultimately he found his way here. We do need to note that Steer is also eligible at first base and the outfield, but he isn’t exactly a bargain. As part of this same exercise, I tried to poke holes into Christian Encarnacion-Strand, but it is worth noting who is listed here.
While Steer does have versatility and a new position, it will be hard to find space in the Cincinnati lineup. A trade could be coming which would change things, but ultimately playing time is tight here. If Steer struggles, the Reds will not hesitate to rotate someone else into his lineup spot. And that is not worth a minimum pick of 50 in the NFBC.
Steer did hit .271 last year with 23 home runs, 86 RBI, and 15 stolen bases, so being the ninth first baseball drafted in NFBC leagues shouldn’t be surprising even if we don’t agree. There is less upside here than with similar options and causes me to keep my distance.
Last season, Steer’s .250 xBA is more in line with his true performance. Unless something changes though, we likely won’t see any more power from Steer. He had just a 6.7% barrel rate and a 37.1% hard-hit rate. Also of concern is the large gap between his .464 slugging percentage and .409 xSLG. Then it shouldn’t be surprising to see Steer’s xHR come in at 20. At the right price, I’m not averse, but I have just yet to see it.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
This one is going to require some roster management and planning. There are platoon concerns with Ryan Mountcastle that, as Baltimore improves, could truly hurt his value.
Last season, Mountcastle hit .270 with 18 home runs and 68 RBI in 115 games for a solid, albeit boring stat line. Considering his lackluster performance against right-handed pitching, it’s very possible he is not an everyday player for Baltimore until this is rectified. In 281 plate appearances facing righties, Mountcastle hit just .235 with six home runs and 33 RBI. Quite simply, that is not going to cut it.
The barrel rate of 12.7% does point to success as Mountcastle squares up the ball but it hasn’t translated to results. It might be the point where Mountcastle’s price drops enough to flip things, but now there aren’t signs of that.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.