There is no more polarizing position in fantasy baseball than catcher. Most of us know the feeling of playing proverbial chicken with another manager in the late rounds of a draft, wondering who’s going to flinch first and take an Omar Narvaez or James McCann. That being said, the pool of catchers in fantasy hasn’t been this exciting, talented, or deep in a decade. Switch-hitting stud Adley Rutschman is being taken as high as the second round in some leagues, and we are looking at a group of 15 players who are not only rosterable but also catchers that will bring back actual value. But with positional depth also comes draft-day booby traps. Here are some catchers to avoid in 2024.
In order to get a sense of who had room for improvement this season, I looked at each catcher’s wOBA as well as their expected wOBA. If a player underperformed their expected stats, then there is reason to believe that a positive regression may be in the cards.
While I hesitate advising to NEVER draft these guys, there’s reason to believe that you could find some similar players deeper in the player pool. Let’s get to it!
Catchers to Avoid in 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts
Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals (ADP: 137)
Is 2024 the year that Perez finally slows down? I mean it’s gotta happen at some point right? The Venezuelan stalwart’s 2023 stat line wasn’t awful (23 HR, .255 AVG/.292 OBP/.422 SLG) but there are some concerning signs.
One, somewhat obviously, is his age. Catchers tend to hit their prime from 26 to 31, according to this 2020 article from Tim Britton of The Athletic; Perez turned 33 last September. However, the future Hall of Famer has proven that he is the exception to the rule so we will give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to age.
Two, this guy is a puzzle. Usually turning to Baseball Savant gives one a glimpse under the hood, informing us how a player is put together. Statcast provides us little clarification, though, as his underlying numbers present us with a tale of two catchers. Perez was in the 86th percentage of SweetSpot% among MLB hitters last season. But he also sported his lowest Barrel% in seven years (8.8%). He walked in only 3.3% of his PAs but whiffed on 30% of the pitches and was worse than NINETY-NINE percent of other players in Chase%. Miraculously, he still found himself firmly in the red in expected batting average as well as expected slugging percentage. WTF Señor Perez?
Perez certainly has the capability to out-hit age, he’s amazing, one of the best to ever do it. But his diminished exit velocity (90.1 mph, lowest in six years) has me passing on him and making him our first catcher to avoid in 2024.
Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 149)
It’s not news that Moreno was a revelation for the Diamondbacks last season, much to the chagrin of Blue Jays fans everywhere. The young backstop had an awesome second half, stroking a very nice 313/.383/.511 line after the All-Star Break. He followed that up with a postseason that many will remember for the highlights, though the final stat line wasn’t incredible (.250/.318/.467). One could very easily feel that this is the breakout that we have all been waiting for.
But it is important to remember here that progress is not always linear. While his second half leaves us excited, some numbers raise an eyebrow and make him one of the catchers to avoid in 2024. The 23-year-old Venezuelan posted a batting average of .284 and a wOBA of .325, while the expected stats were .266 and .314, respectively. Those aren’t the greatest of differences but point to a negative regression on the horizon.
Things don’t get better when you turn to his batted ball metrics. Moreno lived in the bottom third of the league when it came to xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel% and Sweet-Spot%. To be fair, Moreno balances that with a keen batter’s eye (80th percentile in whiff%) and an above-average strikeout rate (20%).
As previously stated, we here at Fantrax are Moreno fans! This budding star catcher is not to be put on a no-draft list. He’s a quality asset with lots and lots of room to grow.
Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers (ADP: 166)
Seems strange to include a guy who just had a career year, but that is the exact reason Jonah Heim finds himself on this list of catchers to avoid in 2024. The Texas backstop hit what we believe to be his ceiling in 2023 by socking 18 homers and ending with a quality slash line of .258/.317/.438. Heim performed exactly up to his expected stats all the while playing excellent defense. The only problem? Almost every hitting metric was far below average compared to the rest of the league.
That lack of batted ball skills Heim leaves little to no wiggle room if things go awry. It’s also of interest that his 2023 Flare/Burner rate was up five percentage points to 25.3%, compared to 20.6% in 2022. If that continues to be the case, what happens if his luck turns and more of those are caught for outs?
At 28, the New York native finds himself squarely in the middle of our aforementioned Catcher prime of 28-31 years old. But it’s hard to imagine that he replicates last season in 2024. His current ADP isn’t egregiously high and his stellar work behind the plate will keep him on the field for a good chunk of the Rangers’ games, But we should expect that his draft stock will begin to rise as more managers attempt to try and find that late round gem at the C position. The trick is to get a guy while he is on the way up, not on the way down.
A Small List of Other Catchers That We Are Wary Of
Bo Naylor, Cleveland Guardians (ADP: 163)
Of the catchers that I researched for this article, Naylor exhibited the biggest difference between his wOBA and xwOBA, from .347 to an expected .309. Concerning yes, but he also finished his season with a scorching September, batting .327/.471/.654 while walking 14 times and striking out only 8.
Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros (ADP: 111)
The dude can hit, I absolutely cannot and will not argue that. His Statcast page is a veritable sea of red. Except for two rows: Chase% and BB%. And in those, he ranks dead last, which is a potential recipe for disaster. Taking a guy like that in the 9th or 10th round is not the worst gamble to take but a gamble nonetheless.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.