Welcome back to the final installment of our fantasy hockey sleeper series. Last on the docket are the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Due to their annual cap crunch, the bottom half of their lineup turns over consistently. This turnover creates a revolving door of sleeper candidates from one year to the next.
From a fantasy relevance perspective, the Leafs lost Michael Bunting and Ryan O’Reilly. Alex Kerfoot, Noel Acciari, and Justin Holl also exited via free agency.
The Leafs then signed John Klingberg, Max Domi, and Tyler Bertuzzi to one-year contracts. Thye also added Ryan Reaves to a perplexing three-year deal.
Who are the best sleeper candidates on the Leafs this year? Let’s find out…
Fantasy Hockey Sleepers from the Toronto Maple Leafs
Nick Robertson
Robertson’s prospect shine has dulled over the last couple of years due to injuries. In the last three years, he has played a total of 51 AHL games and 31 NHL games – in total. That’s two years of development lost.
He just turned 22. He has an elite drive, motor, and compete level. For a player that missed as much playing time as Robertson has, these intangibles will be what gets his career back on track.
The Leafs are tinkering with Nylander as the third line center. With Sheldon Keefe running the team, I am not sold this will stick. Few coaches make as many adjustments to their lines as Keefe. It does indicate a desire to create a legitimate third scoring line, which I expect Robertson to be a part of.
As strong as the Leafs are as a team, there is space in the top six and the top nine. Robertson is doing everything in his power to will himself onto the opening night roster. If Keefe reverts Nylander back to the second -ine with Tavares, Robetson has a shot at 40 points. If Keefe, by some miracle leaves Nylander as the third-line center throughout the season, then Robertson has a legitimate chance to surpass 50 points.
Max Domi
Domi is the real key to Robertson’s performance, here’s why. Domi produces better as a center. The years he has faltered offensively he has been stuffed on the wing. Last year in Chicago, he had 49 points in 60 games as a center. His 72-point season in Montreal (2018-2019) was as a center.
The Leafs also want to move Tavares to the wing. Domi offers the Leafs this opportunity and keeps Nylander as the third-line center. The concern here is defense. Tavares lacks foot speed and Domi lacks defensive awareness.
Perhaps Domi and Nylander flip and Domi, more naturally, fills the third line center slot. Regardless, he provides offensive options they haven’t had since trading Nazem Kadri.
Right now, he’s spending time on the wing with Nylander as his center, also a good place to be.
Regardless, he gives the Leafs a multitude of options. Keefe will put the second and third lines in a blender throughout the season. This should give Domi the added benefit of qualifying for multiple positions. No matter where Domie lines up, he has clear 60-point potential.
John Klingberg
Currently taking spins on the first power-play unit and on the second pair with Jake McCabe, Klingberg could be destined for a bounceback season.
A couple of things though. First, I don’t expect Klingberg to hold the first power-play spot all season. Keefe will tinker and we will see Morgan Rielly on the top unit, a lot. Second, I don’t see Klingberg and McCabe being a second pairing that will withstand the pressures a full season brings. They both require support to be successful as second-pairing defensemen. I doubt they find it with each other.
Klingberg should flip-flop between the first and second power-play unit and the second and third pairing. By the end of the year, I expect Klingberg to be full-time on the third pair.
Normally, third pairings are matched with the top forward line. Luckily, the Leafs boast one of the best two-way centers in the game, Austin Matthews.
In an insulated role, Klingberg should once again surpass 40 points. We can bump this expectation if he sticks with the top power-play unit for the majority of the year.
Connor Timmins
Ahh, but watch out for Timmins. He could play havoc with the Leafs top-six. If you want to see a player doing everything in his power to force his way onto the roster, look no further.
He has six points in two pre-season games. Nothing will get a coach’s attention faster than this. He does lack defensively, similar to Klingberg in a lot of ways. The difference is, he’s 25 and improving.
This isn’t a player to consider drafting, except in ultra-deep pools. This is a flag and monitor option for the early part of the season, as his role is likely to grow.
The most likely projection for Timmins is to start as the seventh defenseman. If anyone in the top-six falters he’s waiting in the wings. to jump in and contribute. By mid-season, there’s a good chance he will have willed his way into a regular spot. Expect 30-35 points this year. Given a bigger role, likely due to injuries, he could surpass 40 points. Without a guaranteed spot, there’s almost no chance he can provide more than this.
Joseph Woll
Woll filled in brilliantly when Matt Murray went down to injury. He provides the Leafs with more of a 1A-1B goalie situation than a true number-one and a backup. This is what the Leafs had hoped for when they drafted him. His development path was the surprise, not last year.
Between the AHL and NHL, Woll went 22-7-1. With the Leafs he went 6-1, .932 SVPCT and 2.16 GAA. It was a breakout season in every way for Woll.
If Samsonov has a couple of bad games or suffers an injury, Woll could wrestle the starting job away.
As it stands, the split should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 47-35 for Samsonov. Don’t be surprised to see this flip to Woll’s favor by January.
The Leafs are a top team in the NHL. This is one of the top tandems to own. Samsonov owners would be wise to grab Woll.
Honorable mention: Matthew Knies
Knies might be the second most talked about prospect over the last month. It’s hard to maintain sleeper status when even casual fans know your name. That is the reason I’ve listed him as an honorable mention.
You lose sleeper status when your name is mentioned more than Sidney Crosby’s, NO? That’s not a comparison of players. It’s a commentary on the number of times Knies has been discussed. But the secret is out.
He’s looked really solid so far in the pre-season, picking up where he left off in the playoffs. A good first year for Knies lands him around 16:00 in average ice time and 45 points. That would be a real nice rookie season.
With all the hype we still want to practice patience and live in reality. It will take Knies three to four years to approach his offensive ceiling.
Thanks for reading. Follow me on Twitter @doylelb4; where you’ll find as many hiking musings as you will fantasy hockey.
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