I’ll be continuing my mock draft series working from the middle out with pick 1.07 this time. I’ll do my best to avoid selecting players I’ve already taken either Drafting from the Seven Slot, Six Slot or the Five Slot.
Mock Draft from the #4 Slot
Like with the seven slot, we start to see some longer breaks between picks when the draft swings back around from the odd to even rounds. Last time I got lucky not being bitten by any runs that pass me by. This time however is different and I do feel the burn at one point and have to adjust my draft strategy on the fly.
The hypothetical roster consists of 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, 1 tight end, and 1 RB/WR/TE Flex position. I drafted from the 4th overall pick in this mock draft.
This is the final mock where I will break down just the first ten rounds. I’ll begin breaking down the first 12 rounds starting with 1.08 next week. The full roster excluding the kicker and defense can be found below.
ROUND ONE
1.01 Christian McCaffrey SF – RB
1.02 Austin Ekeler LAC – RB
1.03 Bijan Robinson ATL – RB
1.04 Nick Chubb CLE – RB
1.05Justin Jefferson MIN – WR
1.06Jonathan Taylor IND – RB
1.07 Derrick Henry TEN – RB
1.08 Ja’Marr Chase CIN – WR
1.09 Saquon Barkley NYG – RB
1.10 Travis Kelce KC – TE
MY PICK: Nick Chubb
It feels like Nick Chubb is finally getting the respect he deserves after years of being a great running back. He’s consistent and puts up big numbers week after week, year after year. In PPR leagues I understand downgrading him, but in standard leagues, this is how exactly the top of the draft should look.
Chubb should be one of the top 3-4 RBs off the board. He has been unbelievably consistent these last 4 years, averaging between 88 and 94 yards per game each year, scoring 8-13 total touchdowns each year. Additionally, he’s averaging over 5 yards per carry each season. He’s fresh off his first fully healthy season since 2019 and will only be 28 this year. If you need more convincing, here’s Nick Chubb squatting 600lbs and making it look light.
ROUND TWO
2.01 Cooper Kupp LAR – WR
2.02 Josh Jacobs LV – RB
2.03 Tyreek Hill MIA – WR
2.04 Tony Pollard DAL – RB
2.05 Breece Hall NYJ – RB
2.06 Stefon Diggs BUF – WR
2.07 Rhamondre Stevenson NE – RB
2.08 Mark Andrews BAL – TE
2.09 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC – RB
2.10 Kenneth Walker III SEA – RB
MY PICK: Rhamondre Stevenson
Important acknowledgment: this mock draft was conducted after Leonard Fournette had visited and worked out with the Patriots. However, as of this time, the Patriots have not signed a running back to their roster that presents any sort of threat to the workload Rhamondre Stevenson would is expected to get. If that continues to be the case, Stevenson has a high upside and could find himself as one of the best backs in fantasy this year, and that goes for both standard and PPR leagues. Landing him in the latter half of the second round feels like a great pick-up for the spot.
ROUND THREE
3.01 CeeDee Lamb DAL – WR
3.02 Najee Harris PIT – RB
3.03 Davante Adams LV – WR
3.04 A.J. Brown PHI – WR
3.05 Josh Allen BUF – QB
3.06 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET – WR
3.07 Garrett Wilson NYJ – WR
3.08 Patrick Mahomes II KC – QB
3.09 T.J. Hockenson MIN – TE
3.10 Jaylen Waddle MIA – WR
MY PICK: A.J. Brown
I’m trying my best to avoid picking the same players again and again but sometimes the board gives me no choice. As I mentioned last week, landing AJ Brown at this spot is a runaway steal. The Eagles have made no fundamental changes to their offensive personnel from last year other than the running back situation. That’s not going to pose a huge threat to AJ Brown’s workload in 2023. Injuries aside, expect him to finish as one of the best wide receivers in football once again.
ROUND FOUR
4.01 Jalen Hurts PHI – QB
4.02 Joe Mixon CIN – RB
4.03 Jahmyr Gibbs DET – RB
4.04 J.K. Dobbins BAL – RB
4.05 Aaron Jones GB – RB
4.06 Dameon PierceHOU – RB
4.07 Tee Higgins CIN – WR
4.08 Miles Sanders CAR – RB
4.09 Chris Olave NO – WR
4.10 Cam Akers LAR – RB
MY PICK: Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins is a really solid WR2, not just in real football but also fantasy. Despite the presence of Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins consistently puts up good numbers. He has posted back-to-back thousand-yard 74-catch seasons with six and seven touchdowns. He did miss some games to injuries in those seasons, and was listed as active and just simply did not see the field which is a risk to happen again in 2023, but none of those injuries concern me enough to avoid him in round 4. He’s a talented player in a contract year looking to cash in on a big payday a couple of months from now. You as his owner in fantasy can expect a payout of big fantasy outputs sooner than he will see a new deal.
ROUND FIVE
5.01 DeVonta Smith PHI – WR
5.02 Amari Cooper CLE – WR
5.03 Alexander Mattison MIN – RB
5.04 Joe Burrow CIN – QB
5.05 DK Metcalf SEA – WR
5.06 Jerry Jeudy DEN – WR
5.07 Deebo Samuel SF – WR
5.08 D’Andre Swift PHI – RB
5.09 DeAndre Hopkins TEN – WR
5.10 Rachaad White TB – RB
MY PICK: Joe Burrow
Stacks are fun. The stakes are higher but if you have a good WR who’s reliable it usually doesn’t hurt to scoop up the guy throwing them the ball. That’s what I have here. It’s the lesser of the two Burrow stacks you can build a team around but still an effective one. I also briefly considered taking a TE with this selection but I decided that a Burrow/Higgins stack is too good to pass up; a decision that will have a multi-round effect that won’t take long to impact my choices.
ROUND SIX
6.01 James Conner ARI – RB
6.02 Keenan Allen LAC – WR
6.03 Dalvin Cook FA – RB
6.04 George KittleSF – TE
6.05 Kyle Pitts ATL – TE
6.06 Dallas Goedert PHI – TE
6.07 Darren Waller NYG – TE
6.08 Drake London ATL – WR
6.09 Lamar Jackson BAL – QB
6.10 Justin Fields CHI – QB
MY PICK: Darren Waller
Here is that run I was referring to. I was contemplating between the Higgins/Burrow stack and taking George Kittle. I got greedy and took Buttow and now I’m paying for it. Not one, or two, but THREE TEs in a row taken right before my pick. Ouch.
Now the pressure is on. Two of the teams who select after me are in need of a QB and a TE. If I pass on Waller here I might be picking the bottom of the TE barrel later in the draft. When runs come your way like a tidal wave you can ride the momentum or duck under it and let it pass over you. I can’t risk the latter so I decide to keep the TE streak running along s and take what’s left among RB and WR for my flex in the next round.
ROUND SEVEN
7.01 Javonte Williams DEN – RB
7.02 David Montgomery DET – RB
7.03 DJ Moore CHI – WR
7.04 Christian Watson GB – WR
7.05 Isiah Pacheco KC – RB
7.06 Justin Herbert LAC – QB
7.07 Trevor Lawrence JAC – QB
7.08 Terry McLaurin WAS – WR
7.09 Brandon Aiyuk SF – WR
7.10 Calvin Ridley JAC – WR
MY PICK: Christian Watson
Watson is someone I’m not overly excited about but I still find him to be less overhyped than some fantasy footballers do. He was a touchdown machine last season and regression in that department is naturally expected. Even if he does regress here’s why I’m not as concerned about him as others might be. The Green Bay Packers saw Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan leave town after last season, opening up 167 targets to go around, and while Christian Watson was effective, he didn’t get a huge amount of targets week after week, even during his most impressive stretch of football. Not once last season did Watson ever have more than 8 targets in a game.
While I point out that Lazard and Tonyan are gone, detractors may point to Aaron Rodgers leaving town as well. However, Rodgers was not overly impressive last season, especially by his standards. Throwing 26 touchdowns in a season with under 4000 yards is not entirely out of reach for Jordan Love. So while his season stats might not look like last season’s through the back half of the year, it’s not unreasonable that Christian Watson could still have a very successful 2023.
ROUND EIGHT
8.01 James Cook BUF – RB
8.02 Tyler Lockett SEA – WR
8.03 Michael Pittman IND – WR
8.04 Mike Williams LAC – WR
8.05 Christian Kirk JAC – WR
8.06 AJ Dillon GB – RB
8.07 Alvin Kamara NO – RB
8.08 George Pickens PIT – WR
8.09 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS – RB
8.10 Chris Godwin TB – WR
MY PICK: Alvin Kamara
If Kamara continues to be available at this slot he could become a consistent pick of mine. We’ve gotten more clarification on his potential looming suspension when he came to a plea deal on a misdemeanor charge. While he still faces a possible suspension, it likely won’t be a long one. For my third running back behind Chubb and Stevenson, I can deal with that. Kamara’s upside is RB2 in standard leagues, which is a huge plus behind Watson as my flex.
ROUND NINE
9.01 Jameson Williams DET – WR
9.02 Mike Evans TB – WR
9.03 Deshaun Watson CLE – QB
9.04 Diontae Johnson PIT – WR
9.05 Jamaal Williams NO – RB
9.06 Courtland Sutton DEN – WR
9.07 Marquise Brown ARI – WR
9.08 Treylon Burks TEN – WR
9.09 Khalil Herbert CHI – RB
9.10 Antonio GibsonWAS – RB
MY PICK: Diontae Johnson
Put Diontae Johnson’s 2022 season in the fantasy frustration Hall of Fame. He finished with the 6th most targets amongst all WRs. For all that volume, he only had 882 yards with ZERO touchdowns. This is a low-risk bet on the volume being there but the production is nearly mathematically impossible to go any lower. He should catch a non-zero number of touchdowns in 2023 if he receives that volume. Otherwise, I signed myself up for a very frustrating WR7 that I have no idea what to do with.
ROUND TEN
10.01 Samaje Perine DEN – RB
10.02 Dak Prescott DAL – QB
10.03 Kadarius Toney KC – WR
10.04 Rashaad Penny PHI – RB
10.05 Damien Harris BUF – RB
10.06 Zach Charbonnet SEA – RB
10.07 Evan Engram JAC – TE
10.08 Elijah Mitchell SF – RB
10.09 Jahan Dotson WAS – WR
10.10 Tyler Allgeier ATL – RB
MY PICK: Evan Engram
At this point, I couldn’t pass on Evan Engram any longer. Darren Waller, as talented as he is, has missed too much time the past two seasons to go without landing a backup TE. Engram is a low-end starting quality TE and could provide me with a chance to sell him off later in the season if I find a capable third TE to roster. Swapping Engram for a matchup-dependent flex with a soft schedule at the end of the fantasy season could be a championship-winning move. So could having him as an insurance policy should Waller miss time. It’s too good a move to continue passing up any longer.
STARTING LINEUP
QB – Joe Burrow
RB – Nick Chubb, Rhamondre Stevenson
WR – AJ Brown, Tee Higgins
TE – Darren Waller
FLEX – Christian Watson
Bench: Alvin Kamara, Diontae Johnson, Evan Engram, Ezekiel Elliott (11.04) Kirk Cousins (12.07), Jakobi Meyers, (13.04), Skyy Moore (14.07)
Mock Draft 4.0 CONCLUSION
There isn’t anything too sexy about this team and I kind of like that about this squad. It has solid RBs but not a ton of flash. Chubb and Stevenson are both in line for a lot of work and in standard leagues that’s all you can really ask for. Behind them are veterans who are past their prime days of being selected at the top of fantasy boards but maybe there is a bit more juice that hasn’t been squeezed out quite yet.
Brown and Higgins are a great 1-2 punch at WR considering they were taken in rounds three and four. Both should see plenty of volume and be weekly matchup-proof locks with Smith and Chase not making it easy for either to be double-teamed or the sole focus of a lockdown corner. Behind them Diontae Johnson will get a lot of work too and if Watson sees a large increase in targets, look out.
Burrow gives me the less appealing but still fun stack with Tee Higgins. Burrow is also sitting just outside that Mahomes, Allen, Hurts tier in fantasy. Even if he doesn’t make that leap, he’s still a great weekly option at QB.
Waller is a great upside pick at TE and has the skillset and volume available to be a top 3 TE. Landing Engram as his backup is arguably one of the best selections in the draft. The run on TEs hurt but I still like this duo moving forward.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023