The NBA season started last night, and boy does it feel good to be back. This year feels fresh. There is drama, there are stories, starting spots to be won, and a litany of questions about who is good. The NBA has definitely had its fair share of ups and downs over the last 20 years. This year, building off of the work of the last five, seems to have a ton of much-needed parity. It is not forced either. Rookies are coming in more prepared. Teams are smarter. Contracts are better. Truly, if the 80s were the golden age, we are living in the Renaissance of Basketball. However, there will always be questions, and that is part of the fun!
Wednesday Mailbag – Season Opener Edition
we are going to take a look at the small markets. Teams like Cleveland, Indiana, Milwaukee and Orlando in the East will be all incredibly fun to watch. Everyone from Tyrese Haliburton to Franz Wagner, there is no shortage of players that can do it all. Ravi, an experienced fantasy basketball manager, had a few questions to ask with a few player profiles on three of these small market teams.
Who, other than Victor Wembanyama, from the top of the draft this year is primed to become a superstar in the next five years? How specifically do you view the Thompson twins?
Projecting is incredibly tough as a fantasy manager. Players can be oft-hurt without showing it before (Zion Williamson), and some come from the second round where you may as well have played the lottery to get that. I think the three things that determine a star-potential player are athleticism, court manipulation, and shooting. If the player has all three, then they have a chance to become a superstar. Court manipulation, in this sense, is navigating a defense with ball-handling and/or passing. Sometimes, in the case of Tyrese Haliburton and Luka Doncic, you only need two. The most important part is the court manipulation paired with shooting capability in that sense. Before diving deep into the Thompson twins scenario, a few names come to mind.
Scoot Henderson is the obvious answer. He’s got all three in terms of potential. Not to mention, he will get room to grow and develop. I really like Jaime Jaquez Jr. Ever since watching his 2021 run through the tournament with Johnny Juzang, it was incredibly noticeable how he controlled the court. Since then, he has been a fun watch. He constantly puts himself in position for good rebounds, makes the right pass, and takes good shots when playing with other shooting threats like Juzang. It speaks a lot about how the Heat view him when they would not put him in a package for Damian Lillard.
Brice Sensabaugh reminds me of a younger, thicker, Brandon Ingram. His game at Ohio State will transfer over well into the NBA. He can shoot from anywhere and has good athleticism for non-shooting abilities. Whether he gets run in Utah remains to be seen, so it’s hard to gauge.
The Thompson Twins
Moving on to the Thompson twins, the key to their stardom will always be how they navigate the shooting question. I like the way Ausar Thompson looked when shooting the ball in the pre-season, and he put up a very positive percentage of threes in that short span.
With how fluid the Pistons’ future may be this season, it will really test whether or not that was real. Ausar has a better opportunity to make an impact this season than Amen Thompson does. Any starting capability and run will provide dividends, and the Pistons have been building their team around intelligent players.
This has to be the season for that step forward, and Ausar will play a pivotal role in that. He rebounds incredibly well, makes the right pass, defends at an already high level for a rookie, and can steal and block depending on the situation. If you include a potential for shooting, Ausar Thompson is what baseball calls a five-tool player. (Ausar Rookie of the Year +6000)
Amen Thompson is a bit harder to gauge. He is not going to get the same amount of reliance and leeway as his twin brother, as the Rockets are trying to take a step forward quicker than the Detroit Pistons. He was the worse of the two at shooting in his young career, and I do not anticipate him getting the same amount of love his brother gets in Houston.
How do I reasonably set expectations for Victor Wembanyama? – Jim
Live on the edge. Vic is going to have his growing pains, but the gravity he displays as a scorer and defender is real. His being a top-25 player in fantasy is not going to happen in the first year, and it may be tough to keep him in a weekly lineup setting league, but he will still be well worth the hype. I do not expect him to play the amount of games other rookies will, but he is the real deal. It is something the league has never seen before. Enjoy it, just expect having him and watching highlights to be fun. I still would not take him in the first three rounds in shallower leagues, conservatively. He may not play enough games to get an award this season. (Chet Holmgren +480 for Rookie of the Year)
Evan Mobley seems primed to break out this year like Scottie Barnes. How do you think the Cleveland Cavaliers navigate the Mobley/Jarrett Allen pairing, given the volume of shots taken by Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland? – Ravi
This is another excellent question from Ravi. I think the Cavaliers are going to have to make a decision, maybe two decisions. Do they need to have two small guards who are average-to-above-average defenders? Do they need two non-shooting big men?
The answer is probably not, but boy do they have a lot of assets. The Cavaliers are still going to be a good regular season team, but I think they have a bit of a wonky build to win in the post-season without more wing playmaking and fewer two big lineups.
I would watch teams like Toronto, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles Clippers, and San Antonio for point guard play. For Allen, take note of Dallas or Memphis. There’s a real chance that difference-making trades could happen this season to take the next step.
Are the Cavaliers going to let go of Mobley? Probably not. Regardless, I would expect (and hope) for him to be the starting big man at some point this season, and we are going to see that early with Allen on the bench. Regardless, the two non-shooting bigs do not work in modern basketball, and it is time to change that in Cleveland. On the guard note to this, a lot of the problem too is that Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are dynamic, three-tiered scorers. They take up most of the shots in the starting lineup, with the two bigs to clean up the mess. It is unsustainable.
How do you view a “good” player on a crowded roster vs. an “average” player on a bare roster? – Chas/Who are guys like Jordan Poole that might not be great players but volume makes them sneaky underrated fantasy guys? – Jim
I wanted to put these two together because they are similar questions, and very important to playing fantasy. Fantasy is fortunately not about how good a team can be, but that can be important to open shots and percentages. It comes down to need. If this is a points league, and the stats line up to not take away from stat-sheet filling, then taking high usage but low-efficiency players like Jordan Poole, Jerami Grant, Jalen Green (less so now), Franz Wagner, LaMelo Ball, Bojan Bogdanovic to an extent, can help a team from a fantasy perspective drastically. The flip side is they can hurt in category leagues where efficient play is important because they have a primary defender on them with bad options to pass to. Basically, view them exactly how they are described, average with high volume. They play a role, but you are not over-bidding in a draft or through daily, and specifically playing the matchups against mediocre defenders.
Fun Question – Why does LeBron insist on maintaining his hairline, when he should just come home and shave it all off?
As someone with baldness in his family, I constantly talk to my semi-bald family members about going full bald. It truly is a sign of confidence, and I agree that the King should embrace it. Holding on to semblances of bad hairlines looks worse, but then again who am I to tell LeBron James what to do?
Thank you to everyone who submitted questions! If you want to participate in the next mailbag, send a tweet to @AaronAvery49 or e-mail [email protected].
Enjoy the second day of the season!