Well, Week 1 did not exactly go as planned. At least now the only way we can go is up. Week 2 can be tough to navigate. It does not seem wise to make blanket statements after just one game. However, there are bits and pieces that we can take from what we saw last week combined with previous data to help see the bigger picture. With that in mind, below are some of my favorite NFL Week 2 player props. Thus far, sportsbooks have been dragging their feet in releasing these. If I see any other plays I like between now and Sunday, I will post them on Twitter.
Week 2 NFL Player Props
Keenan Allen OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards at Tennessee (-110, Barstool)
This is my favorite Week 2 NFL player prop, and there are several reasons I love this spot for Keenan Allen. First, let’s start with his track record. After he returned from a hamstring that cost him roughly half of the 2022 season, Allen was his typical elite self. From Week 11 through the end of the regular season, he had at least 86 receiving yards in six of eight games. In his 2023 debut last week, Allen caught six of nine passes for 76 yards. That performance was very encouraging because I believe those numbers are much closer to Allen’s floor than his ceiling given the circumstances surrounding his Week 2 matchup with the Tennessee Titans.
Allen put up solid numbers in Week 1 in a game in which the Los Angeles Chargers ran the ball 40 times. There is almost zero chance the Chargers run the ball that often in this game. First, a large part of their rationale for running the ball so much last week was that they wanted to keep the explosive Miami Dolphins offense off the field. That will be much less of a concern this week with Tennessee and Ryan Tannehill. If Tannehill looks anything like he did a week ago, Los Angeles should want the ball in his hands as much as possible. I expect the Chargers to employ a much more high-tempo approach in this game, with a greater emphasis on the passing game.
The Titans are one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the NFL. Last season, their defense ranked first in DVOA against the run, while placing 28th versus the pass. Those trends continued last week. Tennessee was second best versus the run and 23rd against the pass. Perhaps more important than any of the numbers above is the injury to star running back Austin Ekeler. Ekeler has not practiced this week and looks to be on the wrong side of the questionable tag. If Ekeler misses this game, Allen should see even more work than normal. Though Titans slot corner Roger McCreary was solid last week, this is not a matchup the Chargers will shy away from, especially if Ekeler is unavailable.
Derrick Henry to Score a Touchdown (+100, Barstool)
As a general rule, I try to pick player props that are applicable across all platforms. Of course, I always shop for the best price. But in most instances, the prices across various sportsbooks are relatively comparable. That is not the case with this one. At least, not at the time of this writing. The only other sportsbook that has this prop up as I write this is DraftKings. Their price is -175. I have no interest in playing it at that price. That price implies a probability of roughly 64 percent. Meanwhile, +100 odds imply a (you guessed it) 50 percent probability of a bet hitting. For what it is worth, Henry has scored in 58.8 percent of his games since the beginning of last season. He also has an incredible Week 2 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Last season, Los Angeles ranked 30th in defensive DVOA versus the run. They ranked 29th in the same metric a week ago. Tennessee lost a one-point game last week in which Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and missed a wide-open touchdown throw. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry ran the ball just 15 times. Call me crazy, but I expect King Henry to be more involved in the game plan this week. While that does not necessarily guarantee a trip to the end zone, it should increase the chances of him scoring. Henry racked up 163 total yards and scored when these teams squared off last season. As much as I like Henry’s yardage props, I cannot pass up even money for him to score a touchdown.
Geno Smith OVER 9.5 Yards Longest Rush (+105, Barstool)
I also think taking the over on Geno Smith’s total rushing yards at 13.5 makes a lot of sense. So far, the best price I have seen on that player prop is -110 over at DraftKings. While I wait to see if anyone will post a better price on that prop, I am all about taking Geno Smith to record at least one 10-yard rush. Smith does get enough credit for his ability to scramble and make plays with his legs. While Smith did not hit this number last week, he routinely did so last season. If you include the playoffs, Smith had at least one rush of 10-plus yards in 11 of his last 15 games. And his long rush was exactly nine yards in three of the four games in which he missed. Given his history, I love getting this prop in at plus money.
The matchup is also one that lends itself towards Smith doing damage with his legs. Detroit allowed 700 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks last season. No other team gave up more than 525. Yes, this is somewhat skewed because they faced Justin Fields twice. But two of Fields’ three best rushing games came against Detroit. That does not feel like a coincidence. And let us not forget that in Detroit’s impressive season-opening victory in Kansas City, the Chiefs’ leading rusher was Patrick Mahomes. In that effort, he had a 16-yard scramble and two more that went for nine yards each. Again, Smith’s total rushing yards are extremely viable in this matchup as well.
Another factor in Smith’s favor concerning his rushing is that Seattle will be without its two starting tackles. This will likely lead to pressure on Smith dropbacks, particularly from the edge. That is precisely the scenario that lends itself to a quarterback stepping up in the pocket and scrambling. All six of Mahomes’ carries last week were scrambles. Smith will be on his toes and looking to run if and when the pocket collapses. He had 45 rushing yards including a 17-yard scramble on the opening drive when these teams met a year ago in what would be Smith’s coming out party. I expect history to repeat itself on Sunday. Look for Geno Smith to have at least one big run in this game and go over his long rush player prop.
Week 2 Rankings for DFS and your season-long leagues: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty