The Home of Fantasy Sports Analysis

Week 14 NFL Player Props: Too Many Cooks?

Last week was another solid week, as I went 2-1. I was a bit bummed because the early injury to Rhamondre Stevenson killed any chance of a sweep. But profit is profit, and we are back to beat the books again this week. This week features some marquee matchups as teams are making playoff pushes over the final month of the regular season. I also see several spots where I expect individual players to take advantage of favorable circumstances. Here are three of my favorite Week 14 NFL player props.

Week 14 NFL Player Props

Zay Flowers OVER 4.5 Receptions (+130, DraftKings, MGM)


I am kicking off my Week 14 NFL player props by revisiting one of the rare losses I have suffered over the past few weeks. The main reason I like this spot for Zay Flowers is because the Los Angeles Rams play zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. That is important considering that Flowers has played half of his games (6) against teams that rank inside the top 20 in zone coverage rate. In those six games, he has had five or more receptions five times. In the six games he has played against teams that are heavy on man coverage, he has only had five receptions twice, and never more than five. While the Rams rely heavily on zone coverage, they are not very good at it. Per Pro Football Focus, Los Angeles has the third-lowest coverage grade when playing zone coverage.

This will be a game that potentially features rain and heavy winds. That will likely shy some away from this prop, which is understandable in most cases. However, I do not think inclement weather would hinder Flowers as much as it would most receivers. Among the 30 NFL receivers with at least 80 targets this season, Flowers has the fourth-lowest average depth of target at 8.09. And in the aforementioned six-game sample against teams who rely the most on zone coverage, Flowers’ aDOT is 4.14. If anything, a game played in high winds may actually help Flowers, as they would likely scrap any deep throws from the game plan. This is a good matchup, and I expect him to catch at least a handful of passes on Sunday.

James Cook OVER 64.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)


James Cook has at least 71 scrimmage yards (listed on sportsbooks as rushing + receiving) in nine of 12 games this season. I expect more of the same on Sunday when the Bills face the Kansas City Chiefs. This matchup suits Cook on multiple fronts. First, Buffalo is one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. They rank seventh in DVOA, fourth in adjusted line yards, and fifth in yards before contact. This sets up beautifully against the Chiefs, who struggle mightily versus the run. Kansas City’s defense ranks 28th in DVOA against the run, 26th in adjusted line yards, and 27th in yards before contact. The last five featured backs to face the Chiefs have had at least 73 rushing yards. That is not even taking any receiving yards that they accumulated into account.

Buffalo is coming off a bye and would be wise to feature a well-rested Cook in what many are calling a must-win game. To that end, Cook’s role has been rock solid lately, particularly since the team’s change at offensive coordinator. In the two games since Joe Brady took over the play-calling duties, Cook has seen 21 and 23 opportunities. That is elite usage that generally translates to high yardage totals. It has certainly done so for the second-year running back. Cook has at least 100 scrimmage yards in both games with Brady calling the plays, as well as four of six games overall.

I was quite surprised when I saw this was still available at 64.5 on FanDuel. Other sportsbooks have it between 67.5 and 69, and I suspect this will land around 70 by kickoff on Sunday. Having said that, I debated between rushing yards and scrimmage yards because the Chiefs do an excellent job of limiting running backs in the receiving game. They have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to running backs and rank 11th in DVOA versus running backs out of the backfield. Ultimately I trust James Cook to surpass his scrimmage yard total. Cook has at least 25 receiving yards in half of his games this year. That includes two games in which he ran for 29 and 43 yards, but his receiving production carried him over this number. This is probably my favorite Week 14 NFL player prop of the three in this article.

Brandin Cooks OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120, PointsBet)


On the surface, this player prop may not look very enticing. Brandin Cooks has only gone over this number in three of 11 games this season. However, I think there are a couple of factors that we should consider here. First, the Cowboys passing game has been a different unit since their Week 7 bye. Through six games, Dak Prescott’s highest single-game passing yardage total was 272. In the six games since, Prescott has thrown for at least 299 yards five times. And while CeeDee Lamb has been Prescott’s go-to target, Cooks has had at least 42 receiving yards in five of those six games, including four straight. His usage in the last four games in particular is part of the reason why I like Cooks to have another solid game on Sunday night.

Per PFF, Cooks has lined up in the slot on 47.6 percent of snaps over the past four weeks. In his first eight games, Cooks operated out of the slot on roughly one-third of snaps. The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the most receiving yards to slot receivers (77.9) this season. They also rank 31st in DVOA when facing opposing number-two receivers. While that can be subjective in many cases, there is a clear pecking order among their wide receivers. I expect Philadelphia to focus most of their attention on Lamb, especially after he gashed them for a career-high 191 receiving yards in their last meeting. That could free Cooks up enough for him to make a couple of big plays. This prop is 50 or more yards on most books, so I am taking the five-yard discount on PointsBet.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty

Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites over the last few years, and we’re not stopping now. We are the most customizable, easy-to-use, and feature-rich platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper, redraft, and best ball leagues. Fantasy sports doesn’t sleep, and neither does Fantrax, with seasons running 365 days a year. Take your fantasy leagues to the next level now at!
Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.