We may have flipped the calendars to December, but I hope to remain hot after an 8-1 stretch over the last three weeks. My Week 13 NFL player props piece features a pair of very similar spots, although the prices themselves are quite different. I am also backing one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league against arguably the worst pass defense. What could go wrong?
As always, please shop for the best prices available. Several props were out earlier than usual this week, which is great. But that can also cause quite a bit of movement before game time. Be smart and keep up to date on the latest news before hitting that submit button. And of course, bet responsibly. Without further ado, here are my favorite player props for Sunday’s NFL slate.
Week 13 NFL Player Props
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 277.5 Passing Yards (-115, DK/ESPN/BetRivers/MGM)
This might be the first player prop I can recall where seemingly every book has the same number at the same price. And I think they’re all crazy. Of course, to paraphrase an old saying, if you think everyone else is crazy, you’re probably the crazy one. But I am willing to shoulder that load and take this prop anyway for a couple reasons. First, I will start with Tua. Tagovailoa has gone over this number in five of 11 games this year. That hit rate is less than ideal. And the Miami Dolphins are expected to defeat the Washington Commanders by a significant margin on Sunday. I believe that (along with the potential for rain) is why this number is lower than I feel it should be. However, I believe the books are ignoring a couple of key pieces of information.
First and foremost, Washington is terrible on defense. They have the worst DVOA against the pass in the NFL, and they have been abysmal since the trades of Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Since they traded those two players, here is their weekly rank in DVOA versus the pass:
Week 9: 17th of 28
Week 10: 26th of 28
Week 11: 28th of 28
Week 12: 32nd of 32
By the way, they played New England in Week 9 and the New York Giants in Week 11. Those teams rank 28th and 32nd respectively in pass DVOA this year.
Washington has allowed eight of the 12 quarterbacks they have faced to throw for more than 277 yards against them. Eight of the 12 have also either posted their highest or second-highest single-game passing yard total of the season when they faced the Commanders. If that were not enough, this is not exactly a good matchup for Washington schematically either. They play man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. Tagovailoa has the second-highest passer rating (125) and yards per attempt (10.1) this year versus man coverage. He also has a 114.1 passer rating and averages 9.1 yards per pass when operating in a clean pocket. The Commanders have the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. I think this game has all the makings of a monster performance by Tagovailoa and the Dolphins passing attack.
If a potential blowout is the reason people may be scared of this bet, I offer the following retort. Miami has won five games by at least 14 points this season. Tagovailoa has thrown for over 300 yards in three of those five games. That includes the 70-20 Week 3 game against the Denver Broncos. Similarly, the Commanders have lost six games by at least seven points this year. Four of the six starting quarterbacks in those games (including Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor) threw for more than 277 yards. All told, this is my favorite Week 13 NFL player prop. I am jumping on the Over for Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards, and I think almost any bet you can think of involving Miami’s main pass catchers is viable in this matchup as well.
Breece Hall OVER 3.5 Receptions (-140, ESPNBet)
As a Jets fan, it pains me to potentially subject someone to watching this game just to win a bet. So please, take my advice and just check the boxscore afterward. It’s not worth it. What I can tell you from watching the Jets, especially lately, is that this is another Week 13 NFL player prop that has me scratching my head. I fully expected this to come in at 4.5. And I feel like it will be 4.5 in some spots by kickoff. So even though the line is somewhat juiced, I am going to jump on this before it moves even further. To say that Tim Boyle likes to check down is an understatement. He averaged just 4.42 air yards per pass attempt last week. That includes the Hail Mary at the end of the first half, and we all know how that turned out…
Of Boyle’s 36 throws, 13 were intended for a running back. He targeted Breece Hall nine times (insert Ed Rooney voice here) on just 25 routes. Sure, those numbers were a bit inflated by negative gamescript. But there is no guarantee they will avoid that this week either. And it’s not as if the Jets have a ton of offensive playmakers outside of Hall and Garrett Wilson. New York is unlikely to have much success on the ground given their woes on the offensive line. Luckily for them, the Atlanta Falcons rank dead last in pass defense DVOA versus running backs. The Jets would be wise to exploit that edge and design some passes to get Hall out in space. I expect Breece Hall to catch at least four passes on Sunday and help us cash this prop.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 3.5 Receptions (+104, Caesars)
If the price of the Breece Hall prop is causing you to hesitate, you can always take this one instead. The price is much better, and much of the same logic applies. Rhamondre Stevenson played a season-high 78 percent of the snaps in New England’s Week 12 loss to the New York Giants. His snap rate has now increased in three consecutive games as he has taken control of the backfield. Stevenson has had at least four grabs in two of those three games, totaling 12 catches on 16 targets. He now faces a Los Angeles Chargers defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA against running backs. The Chargers have allowed 70 receptions to opposing running backs this year. That is third in the NFL and second on a per-game basis.
Stevenson is tied for the team lead with 37 receptions this season, and ranks third in targets. The players closest to Stevenson in both of those categories – Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne – are not expected to play on Sunday. Bourne is out for the season after tearing his ACL back in Week 8, while Douglas remains in the league’s concussion protocol and has yet to practice this week. Given New England’s quarterback issues and lack of playmakers down the field, I expect the Patriots to utilize Stevenson more as a receiver out of the backfield. The expected quarterback switch to Bailey Zappe could play in Stevenson’s favor here as well.
While Zappe has not targeted Stevenson much this year, he did so quite often a year ago. In the four games in which Zappe played in 2022, Stevenson finished with 4, 2, 4, and 8 receptions despite Zappe averaging just 23 pass attempts per contest. In the game Stevenson only caught two passes, the Patriots won by 29 points. If you think that New England is winning this week’s game by 29 points, I have a bridge I would like to sell you. The Patriots are likely to be playing from behind this week, as Vegas has installed the Chargers as 5.5-point favorites. That should also give Stevenson opportunities to catch more balls. There are multiple reasons to believe that Rhamondre Stevenson will catch at least four passes on Sunday, so I am taking the Over on his receptions in this matchup.
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