To a degree, this is going to be an ever-evolving endeavor throughout the week. As you prepare for Sunday Night Football, there will always be specific plays you like and wish to target. NFL player props will stand out to you, and at the moment, you should capitalize on them. As news changes throughout the week, these markets will move as well, so lock in your player prop picks as you see them.
Each week, I will take a look at four NFL player prop targets on DraftKings for Sunday Night Football and provide some commentary about them. Please be aware though, that these are subject to market movements.
Week 13 SNF NFL Player Props
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions, -110
It’s Travis Kelce and a primetime game, so we know there is going to be buzz here. The majority of it is for good reason though as Kelce is the best offensive player on the Chiefs and the focal point of their passing offense. We do have a solid matchup here for Kelce, and this is going to likely go down to the wire. However, targeting this as one of our player props is a solid approach.
If we remove Kelce’s first game of the season a rough matchup against Miami, he has barely missed this total in each of his other games. In each of those games, Kelce had six receptions each, so expecting him to hit the over on 6.5 receptions isn’t a high hurdle to climb. While the Chiefs do have other weapons, Kelce really is it.
Jordan Love Over 19.5 Completions, -120
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the better defenses in the league against opposing quarterbacks, but they also force other teams to play catch up. Attempting to keep up with Patrick Mahomes is never an easy thing, and this week the task falls on Jordan Love.
Much has been made about Love’s struggles this season, but he has been a serviceable option for the most part. With six games remaining, Love has an outside chance at reaching 30 touchdowns while 3,500 passing yards is a reasonable expectation. This week though, we are after Love’s completions with our player props. In each of his last six games, and eight of nine, Love has eclipsed 19.5 completions and Sunday should be nine of 10.
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards, -110
While the focus with Patrick Mahomes is always going to be on what he does through the air, there is also a lot to like on the ground. Mahomes clearly has some elusiveness on the ground and it is a legitimate part of his game, but it will never be the main focus either.
Aside from a Week 5 game against Minnesota in which he didn’t have any carries, Mahomes has only finished under his rushing player props once this season. Based on that track record this season, this is a market to target once again in Week 13.
AJ Dillon Over 13.5 Carries, -115
In each of the last two weeks, AJ Dillon carried the ball 14 times each. When looking at player props for this week, that is sure to get our attention.
It is already confirmed that Aaron Jones is going to be sidelined this week which means Dillon will be front and center in Green Bay’s backfield. While he has been starting and carrying the load in Jones’ absence, Dillon was also dealing with a groin injury of his own. Toward the end of his last game against Detroit, Dillon started to look more comfortable. The other plus here is that in playing on Thanksgiving, Dillon has had a few extra days of recovery.
To help control the game, the Packers need to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible. Feeding Dillon the ball on the ground is a great way to do that.