The new-look Chicago Bears play host to the same ole Carolina Panthers tonight on TNF. We’ll look to take advantage of what promises to be an absolute snoozer tonight. No matter the matchup, there is always money to be made. With fantasy glory and a hefty $500,000 on the line, it’s now more crucial than ever to assemble a winning DraftKings lineup that can dominate the competition. This article offers DFS insights on who should take the coveted captain slot, which core player should anchor your player pool, a value gem that can boost your salary cap flexibility, a sleeper pick with breakout potential, and one player to steer clear of – the dreaded bust. Get ready for an interesting DFS showdown on TNF.
TNF NFL DFS Picks
*Disclaimer: These picks have been constructed with the mindset of building a single lineup. When building large field/multi-entry tournaments, if the player sees the field you’ll want to have a piece of him somewhere, my “busts” included.*
DraftKings Captain Salary- $12,900
Revenge game alert! D’Onta Foreman squares off tonight against his former squad, who let him walk for the likes of Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard. Foreman does come with a bit of risk tonight. D’Onta has been the clear leadback on early downs for the Chicago Bears since getting his chance in Week 6; a week after Khalil Herbert went down with an ankle injury. The latter is now questionable for tonight’s TNF matchup versus the Panthers. After practicing in full on Wednesday, it appears that Herbert will suit up. How much playing time he gets remains to be seen. Foreman has been the main ball carrier in his stead with Roschon Johnson and Darrynton Evans mixing in on passing downs.
As productive as he has been, I would be shocked to see Foreman back begging for scraps in the case of Herbert’s return. The Bears clearly view the 25-year-old Herbert as the longer-term leader of their backfield, but coming off an injury and being dead last in their division, the Bears may, and ought to take it easy on Khalil as he returns. The team can certainly afford to considering that Foreman is averaging 4.2 yards on 65 carries this season.
DraftKings Salary- $11,800
Was anybody expecting a career resurgence like this for Adam Thielen? I won’t lie, I sure wasn’t. But it appears that the rookie number one overall draft pick, Bryce Young has latched on to the veteran wide receiver. Seventy-six (76), that’s how many times Thielen has been targeted so far this season. The next highest-targeted players on the team are Jonathan Mingo (38) and DJ Chark (34). If you follow my primetime picks series, then you know how much I love to take advantage of such large gaps in target shares.
For me, the severe lack of volume elsewhere in the passing game makes any Panthers WR not named Thielen a stay-away. Adam Thielen has now gone over 100 receiving yards in three separate games this season, a feat that he did not accomplish once with the Vikings last season. To sweeten the pot, Thielen has proven his boom ability by scoring a touchdown in each of those 100+ yard games. The Bears DST is middle of the pack against the pass, which should lead to another showing for Adam Thielen on TNF.
DraftKings Salary- $6,600
I’m not sure how many people really want Justin Fields to return. But I’d be willing to wager that Cole Kmet is not one of those people. Ever since Tyson Bagent has taken over, the third-year tight end has been shown some real love. Well, except for Bagent’s first start in Week 7, but we won’t talk about that. Let’s talk about Week 8 against the Chargers where Kmet caught all 10 of his targets for 79 yards. Or maybe in Week 9 when Kmet just caught 6 of 8 targets for 55 yards and two touchdowns. One thing is for certain, Bagent really likes Kmet when they get down to the red zone.
Cole Kmet currently ranks fourth in all tight ends in terms of red zone usage. Kmet’s 10 red zone targets are T-4th with Houston’s Dalton Schultz. His 8 red zone receptions, however, leave him by himself in 3rd place. Where Kmet separates himself though is his reliability. His 80% reception percentage in the red zone is first among tight ends with at least 6 red zone receptions. With Justin Fields doubtful to play in tonight’s TNF contest, Kmet could be in for more work, courtesy of Mr. Bagent.
DraftKings Salary- $200
Well when Tyson Bagent first entered the game, it seemed as if he and Tyler Scott has some sort of pre-established connection. Most likely, the rapport they share was first generated while practicing with the second team offense together. Whatever the reason, there has been a positive correlation with Scott’s playing time relative to Bagent’s. Pre-Bagent, Scott’s highest snap count percentage was 23%, which he earned in Weeks 2 and 5. Since Bagent’s first start, Scott has not dipped below 56% of his team’s offensive snaps.
While Scott made a ripple in his first couple of games with the increased role, this past week he fell flat on his face. Out there for a season-high 59% of snaps, Scott did not record a reception although he was targeted twice. It gets worse actually. Scott was awarded a single carry, which he proceeded to lose five yards on. There aren’t going to be many of people willing to roster a $200 player who scored negative DK fantasy points last week. To me that makes him the ideal salary-saving piece on this slate. At his cheap TNF price, Scott pays it off with a single deep ball.
DraftKings Salary- $10,600
Let me preface this TNF bust selection by saying that if Tyson Bagent is smart, he’ll do everything he can to show the club owners that he’s capable of getting their #1 WR, DJ Moore going in the passing game. Bagent has had his ups and downs, but thus far he seems more capable than Fields of getting the ball to his pass catchers. Thus far it has been Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney that have benefitted from the change under center. Mooney now has 10 catches in the last three games, compared to the 10 catches he had in the first six games with Fields at quarterback.
Moore got a heavy dose of targets (9) in Bagent’s first start, but had just 11 total targets in the following two weeks. After tossing three interceptions last week, I can’t see Bagent forcing the ball to anybody. Moore is going to have to get open himself or be schemed open by the playcaller. Heading into this matchup with a 2-7 record, I doubt that there’s any pressure to make sure that it happens. Moore obviously has the talent to turn a couple of targets into a 100+ yard game, however, his TNF price is too high for me considering what his role has been these past couple of weeks. Moore’s $10,600 can be better used elsewhere.