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Starting Pitcher Barometer, Week 18: The Jays Are Picking Berrios

Have you come here for clever anecdotes? I hope not, because there’s no time for such chicanery this week! We’ve got a metric, uhh, “poop” ton of news and notes to get to following the craziest trade deadline of all time. Let’s start off with some horrible news! Huzzah!

  • Jacob deGrom isn’t going to be back any time soon. The best pitcher on earth suffered a setback this past week and will be shut down for two weeks. By the time he’s stretched back out and ready to return to the Mets, we’re probably looking at the calendar saying September. Let us all join hands in these trying times and weep.
  • What’s that? You’re far too happy and want some bad news? That makes sense, it’s been a really easy year for us all. Tyler Glasnow has been eyeing the rest and rehab route rather than undergoing Tommy John surgery for his ailing UCL. That all went out the window this past week, I guess, as he decided he’ll go under the knife. It’ll probably be 2023 before we see him on the mound again in the bigs. In the meantime, he can keep himself occupied as a stunt double for Cillian Murphy.
  • YOU’RE STILL HAPPY?! Clearly, you are over-medicated. Fine, you sick jackwagon, here’s more bad news. If you were hoping to get Stephen Strasburg back, you’re out of luck. Strasburg has had neurogenic thoracic outlet surgery. It’s devastating news for his career, as it is difficult to come back from successfully. A “fun” fact, you disturbed freak, is that he tossed more innings in the 2019 playoffs (36.1 IP) than he has in 2020 & 2021 combined (26.2 IP). The hope is that he’ll be back in full health for 2022, but he’s already crossed off my list.

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Trade Deadline Pandemonium

  • Max Scherzer is now a Dodger. Super! His value doesn’t change. Josiah Gray, on the other hand, heads to Washington. The Nationals suddenly have a wide-open rotation, ensuring Gray a starting spot the rest of the way. While his odds at netting a Win go down away from the Dodgers, at least he won’t get stuck in random relief. He should be owned in every league deeper than 12-team mixers.
  • The Jays acquired Jose Berrios from the Twins. It’s a great get for the Jays, clearly. He even tossed six shutout frames in his debut. Fantasy-wise, it’s a slight downgrade. Pitching in the AL East is going to be tougher than the Central. Berrios also tends to fade over the second half. I wouldn’t hesitate to sell high if it makes sense to fill another hole on your roster. Here’s a look at his career first/second half splits.

Berrios Splits

  • Danny Duffy is on the shelf already, so I don’t have to remove him from the list. He was dealt to the Dodgers, where he will work in more of a multi-inning relief role. He won’t return to the list this year, in all likelihood, and can be safely dropped in most formats.
  • The Phillies acquired the services of Kyle Gibson, sending Spencer Howard to the Rangers in return. Like Duffy, Howard is still on the IL. He should get every opportunity to start when healthy, considering this is a rotation trotting out the likes of Mike Foltynewicz and Kolby Allard every fifth day. Gibson remains a middling streamer, coming off a 6.26 ERA over 23 July innings.

The Starting Pitcher Barometer

With all the news and notes, I’m going to do an abbreviated Risers/Fallers/Newcomers list this week. Enjoy! Or don’t! Click away and complain if you wish! Go poach an egg! Read a book! Practice your waltz! I won’t judge.

  • Carlos Rodon‘s velocity has been declining in July, leading to his drop on the list. Of course, it had previously been rising month after month, so it’s just back to where it began. His 3.81 July ERA is the worst of his season, so it’s possible you don’t get pure-ace Rodon the rest of the way. I still expect him to be very, very good though.

Rodon Velo

  • Don’t look now, but Frankie Montas is back! He rises 19 spots to SP28. His splitter is splitting harder than a lumberjack on cocaine, fueling a 2.48 ERA over his last six starts (36.1 IP). Over that span, he has a K/9 of 11.1 with a 3.0 BB/9 and a 1.02 WHIP. He’s been throwing it more than any other pitch lately and has hit 10 K’s in three of his last four starts.

Montas Pitch%

  • John Means hasn’t been the same since he came off the IL. That coincides with the substance crackdown, and his spin rates are down since that began. Perhaps he bounces back, but for now, he is mired in the thirties.
  • Merrill Kelly rises 14 spots to SP70. Large rank jumps don’t mean as much in the back half of the list, though, so don’t get too excited. His upside isn’t very high due to his lack of swing-and-miss. Still, he has a sexy-time 2.82 ERA over eight starts since June 21st (51 IP). His control has been the key, with a 1.1 BB/9. Since he’s stuck with the Diamondbacks, though, don’t expect a ton of Wins.
  • Reid Detmers made his Angels debut just over a year after being drafted 10th overall in 2020. He had been destroying the minor leagues, but it’s still a bit of a surprise to get the call this early. He didn’t have the greatest debut, getting chased after yielding 6 ER over 4.1 IP. Detmers struck out just two Athletics, netting four whiffs on 18 breaking big balls. He displayed adequate control, so better days will be on the horizon. Those breaking balls are filthy. Still, he’s probably just a streamer for 2021.

  • I do love me some Luis Patino. He hadn’t been showing well, though, yielding 11 runs over 10.2 IP since returning to the Rays. Patino shut out the Yankees over six innings in his latest effort, making me a happy camper with 8 K’s, 2 walks, and just three hits. He cracks the top 100 as he is looking forward to a juicy matchup with the Mariners and their league-worst 26.2% team K%.

Top 100 Starting Pitcher Rankings

RnkNamePrev. Rnk
1Max Scherzer1
2Zack Wheeler5
3Brandon Woodruff4
4Gerrit Cole2
5Lance Lynn8
6Walker Buehler9
7Yu Darvish3
8Lucas Giolito10
9Kevin Gausman6
10Joe Musgrove12
11Corbin Burnes11
12Robbie Ray13
13Carlos Rodon7
14Charlie Morton14
15Luis Castillo15
16Aaron Nola17
17Sean Manaea21
18Lance McCullers20
19Sandy Alcantara27
20Julio Urias18
21Sonny Gray23
22Chris Bassitt25
23Jose Berrios24
24Framber Valdez22
25Trevor RogersNA
26Freddy Peralta26
27Shohei Ohtani31
28Frankie Montas47
29Kyle Hendricks29
30Hyun Jin Ryu32
31Zac Gallen30
32Shane McClanahan33
33Kenta Maeda39
34Zach Plesac37
35John Means16
36Zack Greinke28
37Dylan Cease34
38Yusei Kikuchi35
39German Marquez42
40Luis Garcia41
41Patrick Sandoval45
42Alex Wood38
43Carlos Carrasco40
44Anthony DeSclafani44
45Jon Gray49
46Nathan Eovaldi36
47Tyler Mahle46
48Marcus Stroman48
49Eduardo Rodriguez43
50Max Fried50
51Tylor Megill53
52Alek Manoah60
53Zach Thompson59
54Logan Gilbert61
55Adam Wainwright62
56Blake Snell52
57Kyle Muller67
58Domingo German66
59Wade Miley63
60Jordan Montgomery58
61Logan Webb64
62Jameson Taillon76
63Kwang Hyun Kim55
64Joe Ross65
65Taijuan Walker56
66Jake Odorizzi57
67Kyle Gibson68
68Cole Irvin75
69Tarik Skubal69
70Merrill Kelly84
71Josiah Gray77
72Tanner Houck78
73Chris Flexen70
74Michael Pineda71
75JT Brubaker73
76Rich Hill74
77Reid DetmersNA
78Johnny Cueto94
79Nick Pivetta79
80Andrew Heaney82
81David PriceNA
82Alec Mills83
83Eric Lauer86
84Ryan Yarbrough81
85Patrick Corbin85
86Dane Dunning89
87Touki Toussaint87
88Mike Minor99
89Triston McKenzie80
90Austin GomberNA
91Adbert Alzolay90
92Casey Mize92
93Daulton JefferiesNA
94Kyle Freeland95
95Madison Bumgarner96
96Steven Matz97
97Dallas Keuchel98
98Luis PatinoNA
99Vladimir GutierrezNA
100Daniel LynchNA

Fell Off The List:

Pablo Lopez (Injury), Chris Paddack (Injury), James Kaprielian (Injury), Alex Cobb (Injury), Ross Stripling (Performance), Ryan Weathers (Performance), Adrian Houser (Performance).

Thanks for checking out this week’s article. Be sure to check out Eric Cross’s updated Top Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

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