Starting Pitcher Barometer, Week 26: The Top 75 For 2020

First and foremost, I’d like to thank everyone who checked in with the Starting Pitcher Barometer this year! This has honestly been a blast for me to put together each week. Of course, with just over a week left in the regular season, this marks the final installment of this series for 2019. It’s time to hop into the DeLorean with Doc Brown and look into the future!

There are some things to keep in mind here. There will certainly be some changes during the offseason as I have many cold, miserable months ahead of me to really do an in-depth evaluation. Some of the major movers and shakers are going to be those who don’t have a clear-cut job right now. Who on earth will make the Dodgers rotation out of camp? It’s impossible to tell at this point, so guys like Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are on the outside looking in for me as of now. How many innings will Michael Kopech throw? Will Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk, and Forrest Whitley be healthy? When will the Tigers promote Casey Mize and/or Matt Manning?

There are also health questions with a lot of these guys. That’s part of the nature of the position, of course. Will Carlos Carrasco be a full-go? How many innings will the Angels let Shohei Ohtani throw? Does anyone even remember Lance McCullers, Jr? Once we get closer to training camp, we will begin to get more answers on these guys.

The Starting Pitcher Barometer

Hard To Rank

• German Marquez, COL (SP46) – Technically, the “Hard To Rank” section could consist of about 30 of the Top 75. Nobody wants 35,000 words on 2020 rankings in September, though, so I’ll just mention a couple here who weren’t mentioned in the intro. “The Coors Kielbasa”, as he is affectionately referred as by us on the Nasty Cast, had a rough year. He posted a 4.76 ERA over 174 innings before being shut down with dead arm. His 3.85 SIERA tells us he had a lot of bad batted ball luck, but you still have to consider his extreme home park. His high strikeout floor makes me feel alright with him here in the SP4 range.
• Domingo German, NYY (SP48) – From one German to the next, apparently this week’s SP Barometer is sponsored by sauerkraut. The league is currently investigating domestic violence charges against German. It seems likely at this point that he will face a suspension for at least part of 2020. On top of that, he posted an ugly 4.43 ERA over 67 second-half innings. He’ll drop even farther for me if/when a suspension is handed down.

Don’t Yell At Me

• Tyler Glasnow, TB (SP30) – Glasnow’s current 2.03 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.97 K/9, and 2.03 BB/9 are obviously ace caliber numbers. I’m a little hesitant to put him in the top 20, though. He has pitched just 53.1 innings this year due to injuries, and he has never been a workhorse. I also need to see more of this sustained walk rate for me to fully buy into his extreme control issues being solved. Also, he still pitches in the AL East and has just two reliable pitches, so that’s rough.
• Brendan McKay, TB (SP57) – I swear I don’t hate your team, Rays fans. The Rays are actually one of my favorite teams! The perennial underdogs in a big-money division. McKay has a good shot at moving up these rankings once I feel better that he will have a rotation spot out of camp in 2020. They might Yarbrough him, too, which is rough for QS leagues. There is also a bit of concern that they continue to let him bat here and there, which is probably not for the best. I’m actually not that worried about his 5.40 ERA over 11 starts, all things considered. His 4.19 SIERA would be perfectly acceptable, and his 10.22 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9 are downright glorious.

Regression City

• Lance Lynn, TEX (SP50) – Lynn has flat-out been one of the best pitchers of 2019. For fantasy, he has been one of the best free-agent pickups. He’s made some adjustments to back up this performance, but I just can’t feel confident in a full repeat in 2020. Does he really carry over the best walk rate of his career into his age-33 season? Can he repeat a 9.9% HR/FB rate while pitching in Arlington? If he does it all again in 2020 then so be it, but there is too much downside for me to invest an early pick in him.
• Mike Minor, TEX (SP63) – I swear I’m not picking on you either, Rangers fans! Considering how much Minor has been outpitching his peripherals all season, however, I can’t put too much stock in his 2019 ERA of 3.33. He has come back to earth a bit over the second half, with a 4.52 ERA since the break. Hopefully, you have enjoyed riding the Minor train this year, but I’m getting off at Station 2020.

The Top 75 Starting Pitchers For 2020

The baseball season is winding down, but that doesn’t mean we’ll stop! For more great analysis from Nathan check out his full archive.

Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has had his work featured in numerous books and magazines. He has also appeared on many podcasts and radio shows and hosts the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts. His written work can be found exclusively at Fantrax HQ, and his personal thoughts and opinions can be found on Twitter @NathanDokken.

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