Everyone wants to draft or discover the next Alexander Ovechkin, Evander Kane, or Brady Tkachuk. The truth is, it is easier said than done to find superstar multi-cat forwards.
These types of players are few and far between, and even harder to acquire. Instead, we must be sleuthy, stealthy, dig deep, and act quickly and decisively when we think we have uncovered the next ‘cat-stuffer.’ What makes this difficult in prospect drafts is the lack of data on hits. This stat is often not tracked in the leagues 17 and 18-year-old prospects play in. Sometimes we get lucky and a prospect report will tell us the prospect hits everything that moves. Often, we find comments like, ‘grinds,’ ‘gritty,’ or ‘tough down low.’ These words describe Zach Hyman as much as they do Ryan O’Reilly.
The SHL and KHL track hits. The AHL, NCAA, and CHL, do not. If you go deep enough, beat writers to independent team blogs will also break down players. There are also a couple of independent fantasy websites that will do some of the work for you and filter out multi-cat youngsters for you.
Without further ado:
The Next Multi-cat Forwards
Jack McBain, C, Arizona Coyotes
I know, I just mentioned him in Wednesday’s Weekly Wrap-Up article, but he fits here as well.
McBain is currently riding strong in Arizona’s bottom six, averaging 12:15 TOI per game. That’s not enough ice time to make much of an offensive dent anywhere. Currently, he is also void of any meaningful power play exposure as well.
This is only his second NHL season, and he plays for a team needing as many offensive weapons as possible. There is room for him to move up the line-up, especially if he or another center (Cooley) were moved to the wing.
When on the ice, McBain has controlled the play with a cool 50% of expected goals per 60 minutes (xG%/60). Pretty good for someone who only sees 38% of his starts in the offensive zone. Remember, this is with the Coyotes, a team that hasn’t been known to be the most competitive in recent seasons.
McBain holds second-line center upside, but that’s if everything goes right. Likely he’s more of a ‘tweener,’ bouncing between second and third line for most of his career. Few forwards offer 50-plus point upside and 300-hit potential. As a rookie, McBain delivered 308 hits. Often what occurs though, as a player’s offense increases, their hitting decreases. Luckily, he delivers hits in truckloads.
Paul Cotter, C, Vegas Golden Knights
Is this starting to feel like a cop-out? I mentioned Cotter Wednesday too. Though, how could I not include him? His 37 hits currently lead the entire NHL.
His path to larger, more meaningful minutes is a little harder to come by. Vegas is a very deep team. That depth leaves Cotter spinning his wheels in the bottom six. Averaging just 12:13 TOI, Cotter is in an eerily similar situation to McBain.
Still, the dangles are real, and so are the hit totals. Let’s not forget, Vegas often sees its fair share of injuries. More than one top-six forward has been known to miss double-digit games more seasons than not in their career (Mark Stone, Jack Eichel).
Cotter never put up big offensive numbers in junior or the AHL. Expectations on Cotter producing much more than 50-55 points in any given season, should be limited. His 168 hits came in just 55 games. He could put up some gaudy hit numbers this year.
Michael Rasmussen, C, Detroit Red Wings
We might be another two full seasons from Rasmussen fulfilling his spot on this list. At 249 career games, he is 151 away from his ‘exceptionally sized’ breakout threshold. At 6’6″ 220, he is your prototypical big, power forward. Players of this size often don’t hit their breakout until closer to the 400-game played mark.
Last year he was on pace for a nice uptick in production. He saw his points per game increase from .34 to .52 – That equates to a 42-point pace. I know he’s no razzle and dazzle but with expected improvement over the next two seasons. And him about to reach his breakout threshold, he could provide 60-point seasons down the road.
There’s something about snagging a player everyone else has given up on, just as they break out.
Rasmussen could shoot the puck more. His career-best sits at 1.6 per game. Forwards, I prefer two per game or better. For three straight seasons, Rasmussen has produced 1.78 hits per game or better, translated: 146 per season or better. It would be nice to see him boost his shots per game by one while maintaining his hitting.
I know, there’s concern about Rasmussen being buried on the third line as prospects pass him on the depth charts. Yes, this is a real risk. Especially if Detroit keeps Rasmussen exclusively at center. Luckily, he gets shifted around a lot, from line to line and wing to center. If Rasmussen’s breakout threshold comes to fruition, the Red Wings will find a spot for the 6’6″ forward in the top six.
Oliver Wahlstrom, LW, New York Islanders
There’s something about the Islanders’ prospects once they break into the NHL. They seem to stall in development in year three. Brock Nelson is a prime example. He had five seasons where he floated around 40-45 points before finally surpassing 50.
We need to remember Wahlstrom has only played 166 NHL games. While it feels like he has stalled, he’s still only 23 and 33 games from his breakout threshold.
Playing 10 minutes a game is not going to help. The 1:20 he is receiving on the power-play feels like a tease given the limited 5 on 5 ice time.
The Islanders are an older team with a lot of players under contract for another two years or more. Wahlstrom is going to have to step up his play if he wants a bigger piece of the ice-time pie.
He wasn’t drafted 11th overall to hold a fourth-line role. The expectation was and is for him to become a top-six fixture and score goals.
For three straight years, Wahlstrom has produced over two shots per game. His hits per game have steadily risen, year over year, 1.3, 1.38, 1.43, this year, 2.0 in 5 games.
He needs to take the bull by the horns to gain ice time. Wahlstrom could be a great mid-season grab. He is set to surpass his breakout threshold near Christmas. He could be in for a big second half.
That’ll do it for this week. Thanks for reading.
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