The 2020 NFL Draft has come and gone. Along with it came plenty of talking points. Somewhere between Roger Goodell lounging in his chair eating candy, Kliff Kingsbury’s house making the rest of us jealous, and CeeDee Lamb’s viral phone-snatching incident, the league welcomed a new class of players into its fraternity. A total of 255 players were selected, followed by some undrafted free agent signings. Now that the dust has settled on offseason roster moves, I will begin my NFC Fantasy Previews and shine a light on each team’s fantasy prospects for its skill players. Today I will dig into the NFC North. If you are more interested in the AFC, Taylor Lambert has you covered here.
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Post-Draft Fantasy Previews: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
There are not many NFL teams whose 2020 draft had less of a fantasy impact than the Atlanta Falcons. Their lone selection on the offensive side of the ball was center Matt Hennessy in the third round. From that standpoint, there is not a ton to talk about. However, Atlanta made some interesting offseason moves and should once again have plenty of firepower on offense.
Quarterback
Matt Ryan returns for his 13th season as Atlanta’s starting quarterback. The veteran shows little sign of slowing down as he enters his age-35 campaign. Ryan has recorded nine straight 4000-plus yard seasons and has set career-highs in 300-yard games in consecutive years. He offers next to nothing in the running game, though technically he set a new career-high in rushing yards last year with a whopping 147. What Ryan lacks on the ground, he makes up for with his arm. He is a perennial threat to challenge for the league lead in passing yards. Ryan offers a high floor and should settle in as a low-end QB1 in 2020.
Running Backs
Atlanta made headlines last month when they signed former Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley. Gurley had been let go by the Los Angeles Rams just a day earlier. He will replace Devonta Freeman, who the Falcons released earlier in March. The former University of Georgia star returns to the Peach State in hopes of resurrecting his career. Most considered Gurley the best back in the league just two years ago, but his stock has dropped due to the degenerative condition of his knee. I would expect Atlanta to manage Gurley’s workload, which could cap his ceiling. He should still be in line for 15 touches per game, which could put him on the precipice of RB1 status. Ito Smith makes for an intriguing handcuff, with Brian Hill also potentially holding some value as a stash in deep leagues.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will be the primary targets in the passing game for Ryan in 2020. The duo combined for 2,260 receiving yards last season, and that was with Austin Hooper and Freeman siphoning over 12 targets per game. Jones is always a threat to be the overall WR1 in any given week, while Ridley should be a WR2 in redraft leagues. Russell Gage is an interesting name in PPR formats based on his late-season performance in 2019. However, I would caution those who put too much stock in his late-season performance. Gage had at least five receptions in five of Atlanta’s final six games last season. But Hooper missed two of those six games, while Ridley missed three. Not coincidentally, those were the same five games Gage had at least five grabs. In the other, he mustered a measly 2-17-0 line.
Tight Ends
The aforementioned Hooper capitalized on a career year and signed with the Cleveland Browns in free agency. Atlanta attempted to fill that void by acquiring Hayden Hurst from the Baltimore Ravens. Hurst entered the NFL as a first-round pick just two years ago after setting school records among tight ends at South Carolina with 100 career catches and 1,281 receiving yards. Given Atlanta’s pass-happy approach and the attention defenses will give to Jones and Ridley, Hurst should see plenty of single-coverage over the middle of the field. Expecting him to be a top-five tight end in fantasy points per game ala Hooper may be a bit out of Hurst’s reach. However, he could be a nice value for those wanting to wait on the tight end position in 2020.
Carolina Panthers
If you thought the Atlanta Falcons did little to bolster the fantasy value of their skill players in this year’s draft, wait until you get a load of the Carolina Panthers. The team used all seven of their draft picks to select defensive players. At least Atlanta drafted a center and a punter. Carolina went all-in on the defensive end, which truthfully was the right thing to do. Their defense was abysmal in 2019, and Pro Bowl linebacker Luke Keuchly decided to retire rather than put his body through further wear and tear.
Quarterback
Carolina has moved on from former NFL MVP Cam Newton, instead inking Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year contract last month. Bridgewater is the ultimate game manager at the quarterback position. That may benefit the Carolina Panthers, but it will not help fantasy owners. Bridgewater went 6-0 as a starter for New Orleans last year but ranked just 19th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring during that timeframe. In those six games, he attempted just 14 passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air. Per Pro Football Focus, Bridgewater’s 7.5 average depth of target (aDOT) since 2014 ranks just 95th among 100 qualified signal-callers. Bridgewater is an option in SuperFlex leagues, but that is only because every starting quarterback is viable in that format. Otherwise, Bridgewater should be considered nothing more than an injury or bye-week fill-in.
Running Backs
You do not need me to tell you that Christian McCaffrey is one of the most valuable fantasy commodities around. Nothing that Carolina did or didn’t do in this draft is going to change that. He will be the first player selected in most fantasy formats this season. I do not believe McCaffrey will post another 116-catch season, as the Panthers were focused on feeding CMC targets down the stretch so that he could eclipse the 1,000-yard receiving mark. With Bridgewater at the helm though, McCaffrey still has a very high receiving floor despite the team’s other options in the passing game. Fresh off a contract extension, McCaffrey is likely to once again pace the position in all-around fantasy production in 2020.
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore broke out in a big way in 2019. In just his second NFL season, the former Maryland Terrapin finished as the overall WR16 in PPR leagues despite effectively missing the final two games of the season. Moore had at least 70 receiving yards in 11 of 15 games last year, including the final seven which he started and finished the game. His weekly floor provided great comfort for fantasy owners, and I think that will be the case this season as well. Moore should be considered a mid-level WR2 as 2020 drafts commence. Beyond Moore though, things get a little dicey for Carolina’s receiving corps.
Once Newton was lost for the season, the inability of Kyle Allen and company to get the ball downfield stifled Samuel’s production. His aDOT was roughly six yards further downfield than Moore’s and his quarterbacks simply could not get him the ball deep. I do not expect that to change much in 2020 given Bridgewater’s lack of interest in going long. The free-agent signing of Robby Anderson further complicates matters. I think the only scenario Samuel owners can hope for is that he gets some touches on the ground, perhaps even to spell McCaffrey on occasion. Samuel played some running back in college (97 carries in his final year at Ohio State) and led all receivers with 19 carries last year. If he can get 3-5 carries per game while also catching 3-5 balls, he could maintain mid-round value.
As for Anderson, I honestly just do not see the fit with him in Carolina. Anderson is another receiver who can stretch the field, but that may be a wasted skillset given Bridgewater’s refusal to air it out down the field. Perhaps new head coach Matt Rhule can instill some confidence in Bridgewater to let it loose. But until that happens, it is hard for me to have any confidence in Anderson as anything more than a late flier in redraft leagues. I don’t mind him as much in Best Ball leagues. It only takes one play for Anderson to put up double-digit fantasy points. I may be on an island here, but as of right now, I have more confidence in Samuel than Anderson for 2020 redraft leagues, both in standard scoring and PPR.
Tight Ends
After spending the last nine seasons in Carolina, Greg Olsen left the team and signed a one-year contract in Seattle. That leaves an opening that the Panthers hope will be filled by Ian Thomas. The 23-year old has averaged less than 30 receiving yards per game in two NFL seasons. However, he has proven he can step up when called upon. In nine games Olsen has missed during that span, Thomas’ receiving production increased by nearly 50 percent when compared to games Olsen suited up for. Thomas should not be relied upon for consistent fantasy numbers in 2020. But he is one of many tight ends in the TE2 range who can be valuable pieces somewhere along the line this season.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints suffered their third consecutive heartbreaking season-ending walk-off playoff loss back in January. The Saints only had four picks in this year’s draft, and they were made primarily with an eye towards the future. Still, they have plenty of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball who will likely make an impact in 2020.
Quarterback
Drew Brees enters what could be the final season of his Hall of Fame career. The league’s all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns should once again be on the fringe of QB1 production in 12-team leagues. New Orleans made a very interesting decision to sign Jameis Winston to a one-year deal. Winston will provide a solid insurance policy in case Brees were to get injured. He also has a year to develop under Brees and Sean Payton, who both stress limiting turnovers. That has been Winston’s biggest bugaboo throughout his career. If Brees does indeed retire after this year and Winston remains in the Bayou, he should be able to thrive. The Saints did draft quarterback Tommy Stevens out of Mississippi State in the seventh round. He is little more than roster depth and can be safely ignored for fantasy purposes.
Running Backs
There were no changes to the Saints’ backfield via the draft, so once again it will be Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray carrying the load. The distribution and fantasy production was split much more evenly than most expected in 2019. I expect Kamara to regain the form which made him a consensus top-five fantasy pick last offseason. Kamara was dealing with knee and ankle injuries for most of the year, which limited his usual explosiveness. In a tweet posted in March, Kamara alluded to playing “on one leg” and “at 75%” throughout the 2019 campaign. With presumed health in 2020, Kamara should be a first-round fantasy pick in all formats. Murray should manage to remain a low-end RB3 who would have high upside were Kamara to go down.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas led many fantasy owners to championships in 2019, setting an NFL record with 149 receptions. His sure hands and precise route-running skills will make him the first wideout off the board in most 2020 fantasy drafts, and a likely top-five pick. Emmanuel Sanders joins the Saints to take some pressure off Thomas. Sanders has eclipsed 800 receiving yards in five of the last six seasons. He will likely wind up as a high-floor, low ceiling fantasy wide receiver who should end up somewhere in the low-WR4 range. Tre’Quan Smith has not developed into the deep threat the Saints thought they were getting when they drafted him two years ago. Perhaps he can finally fill that role if the club elects not to bring back Ted Ginn. But I would only recommend Smith as a flier in Best Ball leagues.
Tight Ends
The Saints traded up at the end of the third round to select tight end, Adam Trautman, out of Dayton. They parted with four picks for the 23-year old, so they certainly seem to have plans for him down the road. It was a bit of a curious move considering they already have Jared Cook manning the position. Cook was better than most realized in 2019. The veteran finished fifth at his position in standard fantasy points per game, as well as seventh in total PPR scoring in his first season in Sean Payton’s system. He also seemed to improve as the year wore on, which coincided with Brees’ return from injury. I would consider Cook a solid TE1 for 2020, while Trautman is a non-factor in redraft formats.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay’s passing game was a gold mine from a fantasy perspective last season. So, they decided to blow it up by making a change at the quarterback position. Well, not exactly. The Bucs added perhaps the most lethal quarterback/tight end combination in NFL history with the free-agent signing of Tom Brady and the acquisition via trade of the formerly retired Rob Gronkowski. The Bucs added some skill players via the draft as well, as they hope to have a more efficient and balanced offense this season.
Quarterback
As a Jets fan who has been tortured by Tom Brady for nearly half my life, I patiently awaited the day my team would no longer have to deal with him again. That anticipation has only increased having lived in New England for the last five years. Well, the day has finally come for me to rejoice. Brady signed with Tampa Bay in free agency and will replace Jameis Winston. This is the sort of situation where fantasy and reality collide. Though Winston was an ulcer waiting to happen in real life, he was a valuable commodity in fantasy circles. He finished third in total fantasy points among quarterbacks, and fifth in points per game. From that standpoint, it is hard to imagine Brady being any better.
However, it is the understatement of the century to say that Brady will be much more efficient than Winston was. Winston turned the ball over 35 times last season. Brady has turned the ball over 33 times combined over his last three years. Winston was able to buoy his fantasy output through sheer volume, which often came as a result of those mistakes. Brady will do a much better job of protecting the football. However, that will likely lead to fewer passing attempts. Playing from in front will have a similar effect. That was a luxury that last year’s squad was rarely afforded. Ultimately, Brady should post back-end QB1 numbers in 2020, though I suspect he will be selected a bit higher than that in fantasy drafts given the hoopla surrounding his new weapons on offense.
Running Backs
Of all the skill position groups in the NFC North, this is the one that is most likely impacted by the draft itself. Tampa Bay selected two running backs in the draft, as they look to bolster a group that has been the offensive’s true weakness for several years now. They grabbed Vanderbilt running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round. Vaughn is a one-cut runner who has good vision. He has decent hands out of the backfield but will need to improve his pass protection quickly. If he cannot protect Brady, Vaughn will not see many reps. He has a chance to earn the starting gig right away in what should be a prolific offense. Based on that, Vaughn will be a volatile mid-round pick. He has the potential to be a top-15 fantasy back, but also the potential to waste away on fantasy benches.
Tampa drafted Raymond Calais out of the Louisiana-Lafayette with their final pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Calais has plenty of speed and can be a good change-of-pace back. However, he lacks the size and strength to withstand punishment in the NFL every week. Calais may be best suited as a specialist in the return game. I would not consider him in fantasy leagues, regardless of format.
Wide Receivers
The Bucs boasted two of the top five receivers on a points per game basis last season. Add Tom Brady to the mix, and you should expect more of the same, right? Well, yes and no. As I mentioned earlier, Brady’s presence should lead to a more efficient offense. Mike Evans averaged just over nine targets per game last season. Chris Godwin fell just short of that mark. With an offense that should play a bit more under control and having more mouths to feed (teaser), I would imagine that both Evans and Godwin will lose roughly a target or so per game. I would still consider each WR1s as we focus on 2020, value but I would expect top-10 production as opposed to top-five. It is a minor distinction, but one that many owners will have to consider early in Round 2 of fantasy drafts.
Tampa Bay also used a fourth-round pick to select Tyler Johnson. The mercurial receiver out of Minnesota has a knack for making contested catches but has also struggled with drops in college. He also raised some red flags when he left the Shrine Game and decided not to participate in several drills at the NFL Combine. If he ends up working in the slot and the Bucs move Godwin out wide full-time, Johnson could find himself targeted several times a game. Even in that scenario, however, I would hesitate to put much draft capital into the rookie. He is probably fourth or fifth at best in the pecking order for targets and does not project to be a threat in the red zone. There are better fliers in Johnson’s current ADP range.
Tight Ends
After signing Brady to a two-year deal, Tampa traded for Rob Gronkowski. It was an interesting move considering the team already had O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate on the roster. Rumors of Howard being traded on draft day spread quickly after Tampa acquired the WWE 24/7 Champion, but those rumors failed to materialize. In fact, the team exercised Howard’s fifth-year option. Many were quick to label Gronk a top seven or eight tight end from the moment he signed. However, I just do not see it. The passing game should continue to funnel through Evans and Godwin, and Howard and Brate are plenty capable as well. Gronk will be a red-zone threat but will be more of a touchdown-dependent option than a weekly fantasy stud in 2020. He is a fringe TE1 for me.
Howard and Brate will be fighting for scraps behind Gronkowski. I am ignoring Brate for fantasy purposes altogether. Many of us have long lamented Brate’s connection with Winston, which always seemed to result in vulture touchdown catches. Besides, most NFL teams cannot support two fantasy-relevant tight ends, much less three. Howard is going to be an interesting case. His stock will drop with Gronkowski in the fold, which makes sense. But Gronk did not seem to have a ton in the tank when he last played, and will now be more than 18 months removed from his last NFL game action by the time the season starts. And it is not as if he has been the picture of health throughout his career. If you are drafting a second tight end as a stash, you can certainly do a lot worse than O.J. Howard.
Check back later in the week for more post-draft fantasy previews!
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