I finally had my first 0-3 slate of the year last week. I picked three players to each go over 1.5 total bases. All three had base hits but couldn’t get over the hump. It did not feel like an empty week, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. I am sure I have some good fortune at points throughout the year, although none spring to mind for whatever reason. Anyway, let’s move on to this week’s MLB player props.
I have listed my three favorite plays below. They are all for the earlier slate of games. There are a few games that do not have props listed at the time of this writing. There are also several other props I am waiting for pricing on. I suspect that when all is said and done, I will have more than these three plays on my final ledger. Make sure you are following me on Twitter, where I will post my final card before the games begin.
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MLB Player Props for June 21
Luis Arraez 2+ Hits (+160, FanDuel)
Kevin Gausman UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-110, FanDuel)
I may very well run a hit ladder with Arraez. For now, I will sleep on it. For those interested, I outlined my general ladder bet sizing in this article from last year. On a side note, I miss Antonio Senzatela. As far as Arraez is concerned, I have data on why I like his matchup against Kevin Gausman on Wednesday, and I have a conspiracy theory on why I like his matchup with Kevin Gausman on Wednesday. Which do you want to hear first?
OK, let’s start with the data. Just in case you have been living under a rock, Luis Arraez is batting .398 this year. He is batting .443 in June and has three five-hit games this month. His numbers are favorable in basically every relevant split for Wednesday’s game. That includes a .431 average at home, a .405 clip against righties, and a .395 mark in day games. Arraez is also 5-for-6 lifetime against Kevin Gausman. In the two games they squared off, Arraez registered seven total hits. Interestingly enough, this is where the Gausman prop comes in, and where my conspiracy theory begins.
Last week I bet on Gausman to strike out at least eight Minnesota Twins. Part of my logic was that in his previous start against Minnesota, he walked five different batters after getting ahead 1-2 in the count. I chalked it up to Gausman simply not making the right pitches when he needed to. Fast forward to last week. The Twins immediately jumped Gausman for four runs before he could record an out. Then Toronto’s broadcasters opined that Minnesota must have a read on Gausman and that he was likely tipping his pitches. While that may be on brand for them, it made me think. Suddenly the five walks from the previous start made a bit more sense.
Then I looked at his 2022 game logs and what did I find? In two starts against the Twins last season, Gausman struck out only eight of 45 batters faced. That is a rate of 17.8 percent. His strikeout rate versus the rest of MLB last year was 29 percent. This year, his strikeout rate against Minnesota is 25 percent, but against the rest of the league, it is at 33.2 percent. Maybe this is just random variance in a relatively small sample size but it is starting to feel like the Twins really do have a tell on Gausman. And if Arraez knows what it is, you can bet the nine hitters in Wednesday’s lineup will know it too.
Even if the theory about Gausman tipping pitches is completely off the mark, Luis Arraez can register two hits against anyone. Even if the theory is flawed, Miami ranks in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts over the past seven days, versus right-handed pitchers, and at home. And even if the theory is incorrect, Gausman has now had back-to-back starts with only four strikeouts. This after having struck out 113 batters throughout his first 13 starts. Regardless of whether the theory is correct on some level, Gausman could be in for a long day. I think Wednesday’s matinee is a matchup that favors the Miami Marlins. Because of that, I am taking two separate player props in this game.
Jordan Walker 2+ Total Bases (+115, DraftKings)
Jordan Walker has been swinging a hot bat of late since his recall from the Minors. Walker is riding a 13-game hitting streak heading into Wednesday. He has recorded at least two total bases in 10 of those 13 contests. It is truly a magical coincidence that the young phenom stopped hitting ground balls when he did. Walker has another favorable matchup on Wednesday when the Cardinals face Trevor Williams and the Washington Nationals.
Walker sports solid slugging percentages both on the road (.516) and versus right-handers (.518). Though Williams is a righty, he has a reverse split regarding extra-base hits and slugging percentage. Only 14 of the 42 hits Williams has allowed to lefties are of the extra-base variety. However, 16 of the 33 hits he has surrendered to righties are XBH. A mere 14.7 percent of balls off the bats of right-handed hitters against Williams result in soft contact. That should play right into Walker’s hands. His 53.5 percent hard-hit rate would rank in the top six percent of the Majors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
Walker should also have an advantage based on Williams’ arsenal on the mound. Williams throws a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a sinker to righties. The rookie has an xBA (expected batting average) of .329 against fastballs and .348 versus sinkers. Though that number is a little lower (.278) against sliders, Walker’s +7 Run-Value against that pitch is tied for fourth-best in all of baseball. He does whiff on sliders a fair amount, but I am not sure Williams can take advantage. His slider is slightly below average in terms of vertical drop, and it is much worse than average (35 percent worse) in terms of horizontal movement. As a result, the pitch results in a -2 Run-Value for the veteran hurler.
My only real issue with this prop is that the Cardinals are still doing Cardinal things with Walker. For example, Oliver Marmol pinch-hit for Walker in the seventh inning in a game Saint Louis was winning 6-1 on Tuesday. As a result, Walker failed to hit this mark in that game. I mentioned earlier that Walker has a 13-game hitting streak. That is even more impressive considering he has been limited to three plate appearances three times in that stretch. During that span, Walker has two or more total bases in nine of the 10 games in which he gets four or more plate appearances. I hope Marmol and the Cardinals allow Walker to play a full game on Wednesday. If he does, I am confident that Jordan Walker will get at least two total bases in this matchup.