Monday night’s MLB DFS main slate is highlighted by some shaky ace pitchers at the top of the pitching heap and a number of intriguing options in the mid-range. On the hitting side, all eyes will be on what happens in the Coors Field game between the San Diego Padres and the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies’ lineup is decimated by the loss of C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, but the right-handed Padres’ bats should be highly rostered. Other good hitting environments exist for the Astros, Braves, and Brewers on Monday.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for July 31
Today’s analysis covers the nine-game main slate that begins at 7:05 PM ET.
- There is presently rain in the forecast for the Padres-Rockies game at Coors Field, which would have massive ramifications for the hitters on this slate and which games to stack.
Best Hitter’s Parks:
- Coors Field
- Yankee Stadium
- Nationals Park
Best Pitcher’s Parks:
- T-Mobile Park
- Oracle Park
DraftKings Top Plays
Corbin Burnes ($10,200) vs. Washington Nationals – Burnes has not given up more than two earned runs in a start in over a month and has 29 strikeouts in his last three outings. The Nationals’ offense is 21st in wRC+ this season and just 22nd in runs scored (454).
Nick Pivetta ($6,600) vs. Seattle Mariners – The DraftKings pricing algorithm must be factoring in Pivetta’s one inning of relief on July 22 as a start or something, because there is no way he should be just $6,600 on Monday considering his recent track record. In his four other appearances since the first of July, he has allowed a total of three earned runs and struck out eight batters per game. The offense is improving and Pivetta has three wins in each of his last three starts.
Jose Altuve ($5,600) vs. Noah Syndergaard – Syndergaard has been equally bad to both sides of the plate this season, allowing a .327/.362/.520 slash line to righties in his 24 innings against them this season. Altuve, on the other hand, has been much better against righties in his limited playing time this year. He is slashing .298/.402/.553 across 112 plate appearances.
Brandon Belt ($3,200) vs. Kyle Gibson – Now hitting in the top four in Toronto’s lineup every day, Brandon Belt continues to destroy right-handed pitching. He is hitting .251/.367/.447 against them with a 15% walk rate and all eight of his bombs in 2023.
Yordan Alvarez ($5,900) vs. Noah Syndergaard – If there is one severe mismatch on Monday night, this is it. Alvarez against Syndergaard at home is almost not fair for Air Yordan. He has a .412 OBP and a .594 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
Corey Julks ($2,900) vs. Noah Syndergaard – Julks is in the midst of a massive 0-for-27 slump right now, but that has just depressed the price below $3,000 for this enticing home matchup against Syndergaard. This is the same player who was racking up 10+ DK points every night in early July, so with a high team total, I will be finding some ways to roll him out if he starts.
Best DraftKings Stack
Houston Astros vs. Noah Syndergaard – The Astros are projected to score a strong 5.5 runs on Monday night and we have already seen how many of their batters can expose the weaknesses of Noah Syndergaard. Overall, these bats check in much cheaper than the other top options on the slate – the Braves and the Padres. Other sizzling players in this lineup such as Chas McCormick, Jose Abreu, and Yainier Diaz all check in below $4,200 on this slate. Noah Syndergaard is just not set up for success here in his first game off the IL, with a new team, and against a strong lineup on the road.
FanDuel Top Plays
Tyler Glasnow ($10,600) vs. New York Yankees – Glasnow finds himself cheaper than Andrew Abbott over on FanDuel for this slate, so this is the right spot to use him against a struggling offense. Aaron Judge couldn’t come back soon enough for the Bronx Bombers because they rank 26th in slugging percentage and 28th in total runs scored over the last 30 days. Glasnow is fully back to his old self after starting the year still on the IL. He has at least eight strikeouts in five of his last six games.
J.P. France ($8,700) vs. Cleveland Guardians – For the 2023 season, Cleveland is 21st in on-base percentage and 25th in slugging percentage and has a wRC+ that is eight percent below league average. France has not just a glorious mustache working for him. He also has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 29th and has only missed reaching six innings pitched in one start over that time.
Manny Machado ($4,000) vs. Austin Gomber – Let’s forget about Coors Field for a second and just look at what Machado is doing to left-handed pitching this season. He has a .330/.402/.549 line against them this year and each of those are at least 100 points higher than his numbers against righties. Gomber is allowing a .315/.357/.567 line at home this season so that’s going about as well as you might expect for him in Colorado.
Alex Bregman ($3,200) vs. Noah Syndergaard – Bregman is more than $2,000 cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings on Monday night, so he needs to find his way into some lineups. Bregman is swinging a hot bat with 12 hits and five home runs over his last 10 games.
Fernando Tatis ($4,500) vs. Austin Gomber – Tatis is the third-most expensive player on the FanDuel slate, but it’s for very good reason on Monday. Tatis is hitting .310/.396/.607 against lefties this year and has the ninth-highest slugging percentage against that handedness in the entire major leagues this season. If he doesn’t get on base at least twice on Monday night, it will be a significant upset.
Christian Yelich ($3,500) vs. Jake Irvin – Yelich is in just as good a spot as anyone named Tatis or Alvarez or Acuna on this slate but finds his salary to be far cheaper on this FanDuel ticket. In Irvin’s 15 starts this season, he has an ERA right around 5.00 and allows 3.87 walks per nine innings. Yelich continues to dismantle right-handed pitching with a .304/.398/.519 line against them this season.
Best FanDuel Stack
San Diego Padres vs. Austin Gomber – What more really needs to be said? The Padres have an obscene implied total of 7.2 runs against Austin Gomber on Monday night and their right-handed bats should do the heavy lifting here. That also means you can throw in cheaper right-handers like Gary Sanchez ($3,300), Matthew Batten ( the minimum $2,500), and Luis Campusano ($3,100). Machado and Tatis will get all the love on Monday, but also don’t forget to use Juan Soto against a lefty for a slightly more contrarian approach.
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