It seems that every year St. Patrick’s Day weekend is co-incidentally when the most fantasy baseball drafts are taking place. Not only does the timing work well for proximity to the start of the season but it also offers a fun social outing for those getting together to draft in-person. Though, the other possible aspect of the timing is for gaining that extra luck that most fantasy managers clamor for heading into the new fantasy baseball season.
When it comes to fantasy baseball, it seems luck is often viewed as a key aspect of a successful season. This could mean avoidance of bad luck injuries or player regression. It can also be stumbling into good luck with breakout player finds in the late rounds of the draft or on the waiver wire. Though, in reality, which team managers in any fantasy baseball league that will have better luck than others is often predictable based on their tendencies for risky moves. That’s why we aim to help you better control your fantasy baseball future and start creating your own luck through these five tips below.
Creating Your Own Fantasy Baseball Luck
1. Injury History Often Repeats Itself
Last March there was an ESPN article published that predicted the highest injury risk players that had the biggest reward potential. To no major surprise, eight of the 10 players listed missed significant time last season due to injuries. The list included the usual suspects of Buxton, Stanton, Rendon, deGrom, Glasnow, Sale, Cruz, and O’Neill. Of the two that didn’t miss major time, Tatis Jr. and Robert Jr., both actually had their seasons end on a sour note due to lingering injuries in the second half. This is one of many examples that prove the greatest predictor of a future injury is prior injury.
If a fantasy baseball manager willingly drafted multiple of those players last year, it’s hard to sympathize with their frustration of a poor season outcome due to bad injury luck. Yet every year those mistakes are repeated, with the appeal of potential upside seeming to blind fantasy players from the obvious injury-related downside. Thus, to create your own fantasy baseball luck in 2024, avoid temptation from the usual injury magnet players as well as those players currently injured going into the season.
2. Place Safe Bets in Drafts
This next tip speaks directly to the importance of drafting players with proven track records. This is especially true in deeper leagues where compiling counting stats at every position is hyper-critical. For example, last draft season we saw emerging White Sox rookie Oscar Colas get drafted several rounds higher than former MVP, but aging veteran, Andrew McCutchen. For most drafters, Colas seemed primed to break out given his youth and McCutchen was likely to fizzle out late in his career. Yet, the actual outcome couldn’t have been any further from that prediction, as McCutchen shined for owners and Colas provided no value in his short stint in the majors.
The best rule of thumb to create your own fantasy baseball luck is to always be compiling (ABC) in draft selections. This ABC acronym for drafting will help you focus solely on key stat lines for optimizing the projected compiling stats, preventing player bias and prospect FOMO from creeping in too much. Also, the focus on compiling shouldn’t just be around accumulating home runs and steals. Players that provide four or more category boosts should be the early and mid-round focus to avoid adding players that detract from other player category contributions.
3. Trust Player Pedigree
When it comes to draft preparation there’s usually a high focus on recent player outcomes. This recency bias has some merit as a key data point to explore causes of significant growth or regression. However, most draft software will only show last year’s stats for players, which greatly suppresses the appeal for players coming off down years. For instance, in 2021 Mookie Betts played through a hip injury that sapped his power and speed considerably. Heading into the 2022 fantasy season, that down year knocked him out of the first round in most drafts despite showing full health in spring training. Managers who looked past the one down year and trusted the player pedigree found themselves a perennial MVP candidate/winner at an extreme bargain.
The same can be stated for prospect analysis as well. Far too often players are vaulted to the top of rankings purely on raw athleticism and skills, while accomplished minor leaguers are suppressed in value. This is how players like Zac Gelof and Matt McLain have become viewed as overachievers when, in reality, they demonstrated the same skills in the minors on a consistent basis. It was simply the focus on their lack of height and muscle that diminished their perceived value.
4. Act Decisively in Waivers
The waiver wire is essentially a game of poker. Knowing when to hold players on your roster versus folding them is incredibly hard and making the right choice consistently is seemingly impossible. However, more often than not, cutting bait with a down-trending fringe player for an up-trending one is the right move. Sure, there are cautionary tales of dropping an injured or slumping player too early every year, like CJ Abrams or Kim last year, but leagues are often won by teams who filled key roster gaps with waiver wire finds like McCormick, Friedl, Ragans, and several other waiver darlings last year.
For fantasy managers in FAAB leagues, it’s ‘get your target players early season’ all year long. When a key player emerges on the wire those who spend aggressively will win out. More importantly is acting quickly on emerging waiver wire breakout players. If there’s a hunch a player may soon find their way to increased value, that’s the time to act before the rest of the league catches on and the price skyrockets.
5. Know Your League’s Intricacies
The last tip to create your own fantasy baseball luck is probably the most important one, knowing your league. This involves both knowing your league settings inside and out as well as your league-mate tendencies. With the former, key considerations like non-traditional categories or daily waiver runs can significantly alter pitcher values for SPARPs (starting pitchers as relief pitcher slot eligible) as well as streaming-only options. Hitter player values can also fluctuate greatly in different league formats. For instance, roto leagues elevate steals while most point leagues diminish their value.
Knowing your league-mate tendencies is also important, especially in draft season. Oftentimes, the values of their favorite team’s players are overly inflated and the opposite for a rival team’s players. Some leagues may be more aggressive on the waiver wire than others or with trading. There are many more examples of such tendencies that can help smart owners find key buying or selling opportunities to maximize player value.
Who Needs Luck Anyways?
There are hundreds of quotes around the concept of luck and all share the same theme — luck is the result of proper preparation. With these tips in mind, you’ll shed superstitions and start realizing the success you may have found ever-elusive in the past. And when other fantasy managers complain about their bad luck, just grin and wish them better luck next year.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.