Chris Mitchell presents his Week 3 Hitting Planner; a look at some of the week’s toughest start/sit decisions and the reasoning behind them.
When making a tough Start/Sit decision there are a few basic places to focus your attention. How many games does a batter have compared to the possible alternatives, which pitchers will they face, and finally, left/right splits. Left/right Splits and the ballparks they are playing in aren’t necessarily definitive and they matter the least, but they matter.
Owners shouldn’t start a player who will be in too many situations that they have shown historically they are significantly more likely to fail. And, not only are they more likely to fail, which is obviously bad, but it could impact total at-bats, which is worse. If Fantasy owners are considering benching a left-handed batter who struggles against left-handed pitchers then it’s safe to assume their teams are too. Every week has tough Start/Sit decisions, but this week with the disparity in games played due to the oddity of the schedule there are more difficult calls than most to be made.
Quality matters, but so does quantity, especially when making those tough Start/Sit decisions. It doesn’t matter how good a player is likely to be if they don’t receive enough opportunities. In baseball, really good batters fail as much as 75-78% of the time. The most talented players of our game aren’t going to get it done when owners expect them to be Superman in 22-25% of limited opportunities.
The Dodgers love to play the left/right matchup game, going so far as to sit their best offensive player, Max Muncy, in the 2018 World Series against the Boston Red Sox. Only seven major league players started 162 games and only 58 in all of MLB played at least 150 in 2018. More teams are implementing platoons than ever before and even the best of the best take days off. When the splits aren’t in a players favor, those are the games they are likely to sit. These are all things that need to be considered when making difficult Start/Sit decisions.
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Week 3 Hitting Planner
Quirks in This Weeks Schedule
A few interesting factoids in the upcoming Schedule.
- The Rockies have seven games, four at home. They face four lefties, three in San Francisco, only one at Coors Field, and Madison Bumgarner is their toughest test.
- The San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals are both scheduled to play seven home games.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers are scheduled to face seven right-handed pitchers while the Seattle Mariners are expected to see right-handers in six of their seven games this week. Cody Bellinger has been on fire and it doesn’t look like things are going to cool this week.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates face Patrick Corbin, Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, and Jon Lester. Darvish has had some serious command issues, but he is still striking guys out. There could be a lot of swings-and-misses from Pittsburgh bats this week.
- The Detroit Tigers are scheduled to play six games against six right-handed starters, including Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Jose Berrios. Nicholas Castellanos is a Must-Start batter most weeks, but if there was ever a week to sit the Tigers best offensive player, this could be the one. They rank last in the league in home runs with three, just to make the ugly look even more heinous in Detroit. Padres and Phillies fans may want to avert their eyes when driving by Detroit. They could accidentally see the train wreck that is Miguel Cabrera and his long-term contract.
- The Cleveland Indians have six road games and have only hit one road home run this season. If you look on the bright side, they have all of their 28th ranked, four home runs against right-handed pitchers, of which they face five this week. Maybe they find a way to rally and reach double-digits by Sunday. We can only pray.
Games Played in Fantasy This Week
Fantasy Week 3 has an odd quirk. There are teams scheduled to play five games, six games, and even seven games. It is weird, and extremely Fantasy relevant, that some players might play seven games while others may only play five. Two full games and potentially 10-15 fewer, or additional, at-bats is significant enough to make tough Start/Sit decisions a little easier while also making what wasn’t considerable, worth a serious look. Owners also need to assign more weight to the left/right splits for players with only five games scheduled than they would if they had seven on their slate. The possibility that a Must-Start player may take a day off due to bad splits or a difficult head-to-head matchup is even more meaningful when they could receive 10-15 fewer at-bats than potential alternatives, even when those alternatives are less talented players.
Five-Game Schedules for The Week
The Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, and Toronto Blue Jays are all scheduled to play five games in Week 3 of the Fantasy season. Fantasy owners are fortunate that there are fewer Must-Start offensive players on these teams than what could have potentially been the case, but it will have an impact on some of the more debatable Start/Sit decisions of the week.
Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts are too good to sit except for owners that have a really strong roster or extremely shallow league in the case of Bogaerts. But, there are some potential Starts that are probably Sits because of their scheduling disadvantage.
The Blue Jays don’t have what I would call a “Must-Start” offensive player while their weekly Start/Sit considerations have flaws as well. The Twins potentially have two (Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz) while the Reds have one (Joey Votto) with the possibility of a second depending on your value of Jose Peraza’s stolen base contributions. The Rangers have two – Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo – that I view as flawed Must-Start players that become debatable because of their shortened schedule. What three of these four teams do have are weekly Start/Sit considerations that are weakened by the five-game schedule in Week 3.
Due to the despicable state of the catcher position, Danny Jansen of the Blue Jays and Willians Astudillo of the Minnesota Twins are close to Must-Start players. Outside of that, I am not starting any Blue Jays and I am sitting most of the borderline Start/Sit options on the Twins and Reds.
I like chasing upside as much or more than the next guy, but Buxton’s shortened schedule and a poor start to 2019 has him sitting for me this week. I drafted Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin Soo-Choo late enough that I consider them good draft-day values, but they are Sits in anything but the deepest of leagues in a shortened five-game week as well. Same goes for C.J. Cron, Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Yasiel Puig, Nomar Mazara, and Max Kepler.
Debatable Start/Sits
Here are a few of the more difficult Week 3 Start/Sit Decisions Impacted by the five-game scheduling disadvantage of their teams:
Rougned Odor, 2B Texas Rangers
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Zack Greinke/Robbie Ray/Mike Fiers/Marco Estrada/Brett Anderson
Odor is a significant drain on batting average even in the best of circumstances, but his stolen base and home run potential make him an appealing middle-infield Fantasy player most weeks. That’s not the case this week.
Odor has only hit 23 home runs and stolen eight base while being caught 13 times against left-handed pitching in his career. And, he has a career batting average of .237 in 406 games and 758 at-bats against lefties.
He doesn’t have the toughest left/right splits, but he will face two left-handed pitchers and a solid No. 2 starter (Zack Greinke) in a five-game slate. The fact that he has zero home runs, zero stolen bases, and a .194 batting average to start the season just makes the decision that much easier. Odor needs to Sit.
Joey Gallo, 1B/3B/OF Texas Rangers
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Zack Greinke/Robbie Ray/Mike Fiers/Marco Estrada/Brett Anderson
Like Odor, Gallo doesn’t have impossible splits or matchups, but they are rough enough to matter due to his history. He hits for as poorly a batting average against left-handed pitchers as he does righties, but his power is significantly less. He has only 24 home runs while striking out 148 times in 190 games and 311 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, of which he will face two this week. Owners drafted Gallo for the long ball and accepted the excessive swings-and-misses as an unfortunate side effect. In head-to-head leagues with two lefties on the bump, Gallo needs to Sit.
Nelson Cruz, UT Minnesota Twins
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Jason Vargas/Jacob deGrom/Matt Moore/Tyson Ross/Jordan Zimmerman
Cruz fell in drafts primarily because he is one of the few true DH/UT’s in Fantasy baseball, but he also dropped because everyone expects a drop off in performance this season. He has only one home run and two RBI so far in 2019 and that’s all the excuse I need. Combine that with five games and Jacob deGrom on the schedule? Sold. Cruz is a low-end Must-Start who is a Sit in Week 3.
Andrew Benintendi, OF Boston Red Sox
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Matt Shoemaker/Aaron Sanchez/David Hess/Andrew Cashner/TBA
Benintendi has a career batting average of .295 with 33 of 38 home runs against right-handed pitchers. As coincidence would have it, in Week 3 he has five games against four right-handed starters with a TBA that could make it five. However, there are factors that aren’t in Benintendi’s favor.
- The Five game schedule.
- Benintendi is homerless while hitting .235 with a .613 OPS in 2019.
- Fenway park ranked 17th in Home runs allowed in 2018 and with the cold April air and wind often blowing in from right field, Fenway is even stingier early in the season.
- Benintendi has only hit 14 career home runs at Fenway Park and only four of those have been in March or April.
- The Red Sox prefer J.D. Martinez to play the outfield at Fenway Park, which could cost Benintendi a start that Fantasy owners can’t afford to sacrifice in a five-game week.
- Steven Pearce is better against left-handed pitching, but he just returned from the Injured List. It’s easy to envision a scenario where the Red Sox give Pearce a game or two of at-bats at first base or designated hitter rather than bench him for an entire week right after his return. A start for J.D. Martinez in left field with Mitch Moreland and Pearce at first base and designated hitter is a real possibility. Even one game where Benintendi sits could be enough for Fantasy owners to bench him as well. Four games, as opposed to six or seven from a lesser alternative, is enough to make him a serious Sit consideration.
In deep five-outfielder leagues with his Average Draft Position of 29.93 on Fantrax.com, it’s difficult to see how Benintendi isn’t a Must-Start player. But, I think he is a Sit unless the alternatives are poor. That’s the punishing impact of a Fantasy series when some players have seven games while others have only five.
Seven-Game Schedules for The Week
The San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A’s, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, and Atlanta Braves are all scheduled to play seven games in the second/third week of Fantasy baseball. That’s a lot of potential at-bats that could be a difference maker for borderline Start/Sit considerations to receive over alternative peers.
Here are a few borderline Start/Sit considerations that benefit most from the disparity in games played this week.
Jonathan Villar, SS/2B Baltimore Orioles
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Marco Estrada/Brett Anderson/Frankie Montas/Aaron Brooks/Rick Porcello/David Price/Chris Sale
Villar ranks eighth in points at shortstop with two home runs, one stolen base and a .333 batting average in 30 at-bats this season. That alone makes him a borderline Must-Start in all leagues. Four home games in the friendly confines of Camden yards, seven total for the week, and the fact that he is a switch-hitter just bolsters his case.
Villar will face a struggling Red Sox rotation of Rick Porcello (13.50 ERA and three home runs allowed), Chris Sale (8.00 ERA and four home runs allowed) and David Price (6.00 ERA and three home runs allowed) with the benefit of the Green Monster and Fenway Park.
The matchups are fairly good with the potential for a bumpy ride or two, the ballparks are in his favor and with seven games on the slate, Villar is a Must-Start this week. A couple home runs and a couple stolen bases are well within the realm of possibility.
Trey Mancini, 1B/OF Baltimore Orioles
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Marco Estrada/Brett Anderson/Frankie Montas/Aaron Brooks/Rick Porcello/David Price/Chris Sale
With the way the Red Sox pitching staff has struggled and the amount of home runs they have allowed, Mancini’s hot start looks primed to become a full-blown blaze this week. He already has four home runs and eight RBI with a batting average of .364 in 33 at-bats.
Mancini ranks 13th in points leagues amongst outfielders in 2019 and has hit 40 home runs in 292 career at-bats against left-handed pitching, of which he will face three this week. His hot start skews the decision slightly while his career against left-handed pitching enhances it. The extra games, the matchups and a schedule that has four games at Camden Yards and three in Fenway Park against two lefties and in the shadow of the Green Monster, make it a great situation for Mancini owners this week. He was an under-the-radar late-round flier that looks to be a cheap source of home runs for the season and as close to a Must-Start as a player with an ADP of #231.7 can be. He has to be a Start in the majority of leagues.
Hunter Renfroe, OF San Diego Padres
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Madison Bumgarner/Derek Holland/Dereck Rodriguez/Zack Godley/Luke Weaver/Merrill Kelly/Zack Greinke
Renfroe has played the fewest games and is tied for the second fewest at-bats of any Padres outfielder in the small sample size that is the 2019 season. In spite of the limits on his opportunities, he has led them in home runs (3), RBI (6), batting average (.368), and OPS (1.376).
He will face five right-handed pitchers in seven games, which benefits rather than hurts him. He led the Padres in home runs (18) and was tied for third in team OPS (.803) against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Renfroe’s case to start is a muddled one, but there is a case to be made. The case against. At-bats are in question and he plays all of his games on the road, including four in San Francisco, one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. The case for. He is one of the Padres best sluggers, he hits for power against both left and right-handed pitchers and he leads the team in home runs, batting average and OPS in spite of his limited at-bats in 2019.
I lean toward Sit for Renfroe because the sample size is too small to be definitive, but it’s close enough to flip to a Start in deeper leagues because of his hot start and seven-game schedule. A schedule that matches him up against two above-average starters in Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner, but lacks true dominant aces like Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Owners alternatives make the call here. It’s a lot closer than it should be.
Garrett Hampson, SS/2B Colorado Rockies
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Julio Teheran/Max Fried/Kevin Gausman/Jeff Samardzija/Drew Pomeranz/Madison Bumgarner/Derek Holland
Hampson had a great spring and has had a terrible regular season. Both of these facts need to be understood. Spring is practice and is essentially closer to fake than real games. While 20 March/April at-bats is too small to tell us anything about what to expect from a player. All that being said. One hit and eight strikeouts in eight games is officially a slump and suggestive of much worse. If not for Ryan McMahon’s injury Hampson would be a cut or keep consideration rather than a Start/Sit one, even though he has seven games scheduled this week with three at Coors Field.
I considered and then decided against writing up Fernando Tatis Jr. as a potential Start and if Tatis isn’t worth 100 words then I can’t recommend starting Hampson when he has looked so bad so far in 2019. The circumstances are all screaming Start and the skill set is exciting, but I am recommending Sit until he gets it going in major league games that mean something. Sit and watch.
Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B Colorado Rockies
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Julio Teheran/Max Fried/Kevin Gausman/Jeff Samardzija/Drew Pomeranz/Madison Bumgarner/Derek Holland
Reynolds could face two right-handed pitchers at Coors field this week and he has hit three times as many home runs in fewer than twice as many at-bats against right-handed pitchers than left-handed ones.
I can’t glowingly recommend chasing a player that has one extra-base hit and only 15 at-bats. But, injuries to Daniel Murphy and now Ryan McMahon set Reynolds up perfectly for full-time at-bats and with seven games, three of which will be at Coors field, he is an enticing morsel to munch on in deep leagues and a potential bargain in Daily Fantasy baseball. First base is thin and this week, in these circumstances, I would start Reynolds over deep league alternatives like C.J. Cron and seriously consider him instead of seemingly better options like Ryon Healy, Pete Alonso and if I was a riverboat gambler type I might go off the reservation and start him ahead of Eric Hosmer. That’s a bit on the crazy side, and Hosmer has a seven-game week ahead as well, but who is more likely to hit three home runs and knock in eight to 10 RBIs, Mark Reynolds with three at Coors field or Hosmer with seven road games and three against left-handers? I am leaning closer and closer to recommending Start the more and more I write. Just a thought. A Coors field flyer. Mark Reynolds. If he had six or seven games at home, he would be a Must-Start.
Jay Bruce, 1B/OF Seattle Mariners
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Homer Bailey/Jakob Junis/Heath Fillmyer/Jorge Lopez/Wade Miley/Brad Peacock/Justin Verlander
Bruce benefits from potentially facing six right-handed pitchers, a seven-game schedule and leading the Mariners with five home runs in 2019. His case for Must-Start status is harmed by the facts that he is batting .184, he is expected to face Brad Peacock and Justin Verlander and all seven games are in pitcher-friendly environments.
I have praised Bruce since draft season. I have labeled him a disrespected late-round flier with power and he has…rewarded me (?) by hitting five early season home runs with a .184 batting average? If I can’t ring his bell and call for owners to start him in a seven-game schedule filled with right-handed pitchers then I have to change my tune and recommend releasing him. Owners should Start Bruce this week and just hope the batting average doesn’t sink us all.
Domingo Santana, OF Seattle Mariners
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Homer Bailey/Jakob Junis/Heath Fillmyer/Jorge Lopez/Wade Miley/Brad Peacock/Justin Verlander
Santana strikes out more often and hits more home runs against right-handed pitching and he will face six of them in this week’s seven-game schedule. In 2019, he has hit four home runs, stolen two bases and has a batting average of .286 with an OPS of 1.007. If he wasn’t a Must-Start based on his hot start alone, the schedule and his career splits should have been enough to convince us. Santana strikes out more than I like to see from a player, Verlander and Peacock could be a challenge, and the pitcher-friendly parks don’t add to my level of confidence, but he has to Start until he cools down and definitely in these beneficial circumstances.
Dansby Swanson, SS Atlanta Braves
Head-To-Head Matchups:
Kyle Freeland/German Marquez/Tyler Anderson/Noah Syndergaard/Steven Matz/Zach Wheeler/Jason Vargas
I can’t enthusiastically praise any of the Braves Fantasy alternatives because Ronald Acuna Jr. leads the team with only two home runs and Ozzie Albies leads them in stolen bases, also two. But, this week they have seven games and three are in Coors Field. Albies is a Must-Start in most leagues and of course Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman are as well in spite of their slow starts. That leaves Swanson as the only borderline Start/Sit consideration and I have to lean Start.
He has batted .318 with an OPS of 1.103 in eight 2019 games while being tied for the team lead in home runs. He isn’t a top-10 play this week, but seven games and three in Coors field pushes him up the rankings. And, in leagues with middle infield spots or if owners are thin up the middle, this week’s schedule puts Swanson in the optimal position to succeed. His .318 batting average suggests he is making a lot of contact, his 1.103 OPS suggests when he does he is hitting for some level of power and his .467 OBP screams that he is locked in. I did notice that he faces a lot of above-average strikeout pitchers this week, but I am not frightened. A couple of home runs are on the menu this week for Swanson. They may come early at Coors field followed along by some stumbles in a tough head-to-head battle against the Mets and three of their big four in New York over the weekend. Swanson is a less-than-thrilling, low-ceiling Start this week.
You can follow me on Twitter @CJMitch73 or on Facebook in the Fantasy Sports group “A Podcast To Be Named Later” and we will have a Podcast coming in the not-too-distant future, so keep an eye-out.
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