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Goodyear 400 at Darlington: NASCAR DFS Picks

The field is set following the qualifying races on Saturday, and we can now look at potential values for this afternoon’s Goodyear 400 at Darlington.

In Wednesday’s preview, I mentioned that Toyotas have historically dominated Darlington while questioning whether that would ring true with how the NextGen cars have created model parity. Based on how the qualifiers went, I’m tempted to swing back to the “Toyotas dominate Darlington” narrative.

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Here’s how the Top 10 shook out:

1. Joey Logano (Ford)
2. Kyle Larson (Chevrolet)
3. Christopher Bell (Toyota)
4. Martin Truex Jr. (Toyota)
5. Kyle Busch (Toyota)
6. Kurt Busch (Toyota)
7. Ryan Blaney (Ford)
8. Ross Chastain (Chevrolet)
9. William Byron (Chevrolet)
10. Tyler Reddick (Chevrolet)

That is quite the stack of Toyotas with a lot of Darlington experience in the middle. And save for the absence of leader Chase Elliott (QP 34), that is essentially the current Top 10 in the Cup Standings. It is a fascinating group, and an argument can be made for any one of them to pull out the win this afternoon.

Truex enters the race with three previous victories and the second-highest salary for DFS; however, he has earned the role of favorite today and should appear on a relatively high number of rosters. We’ll need to find value elsewhere since we can’t afford five or six of these drivers. The first table represents the higher value options on both sites.

FanDuel Values

Daniel Hemric250024
Ricky Stenhouse600026
Brad Keselowski650023
Erik Jones720011
Alex Bowman950016

DraftKings Values

Kurt Busch73006
Erik Jones770011
Brad Keselowski790023
Kevin Harvick880035
Chase Elliott1060034

Here’s what I wrote about Kevin Harvick: “The previous six races put him at the top of the contenders’ list this week. The No. 4 car appeared in the Top 10 in all six of them, the Top 5 in five, and won it twice. While recent history does not guarantee anything, rostering him will be the smart play if his qualifying position is outside the first ten.”

Harvick responded in kind, placing 35th in qualifiers and giving him significant positional value this afternoon. While he has not been running as well as in his previous dominant seasons, experience on and understanding this complex track is worth something.

Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones appear to be valued on both sites, and I am especially interested in Jones. While his salary is a bit higher than I had hoped, his QP of 11 and recent successes lend me to believe he will make some noise in Darlington.

Don’t forget! This track eats tires, so pit crews and strategies will significantly matter to driver (and DFS) success. With all of that in mind, here are two lineups I will be playing in GPP contests today to bring home some cash. If you have any thoughts, questions, or bragging rights about a contest, reach out to me on Twitter at @thewonkypenguin. And, as always, good luck!

FanDuel Lineup

Chase Elliott1300034
Ross Chastain115008
William Byron110009
Kevin Harvick900035
Bubba Wallace550017

DraftKings Lineups

Chase Elliott1060034
Martin Truex Jr.105004
Kevin Harvick880035
Erik Jones770011
Kurt Busch73006
Corey Lajoie490030

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