Hey folks, welcome back to another installment of Slappers and Bangers; where we look at fantasy hockey through a multi-cat lens; specifically for limited keeper and dynasty leagues.
We’re now halfway through the season. At this point of the year, streaks have either faded or turned into trends. In dynasty pools especially, we’re always looking for the ‘next one.’ Blue-chip prospects like Logan Cooley, Connor Zary, and Matthew Knies, have long since been drafted or claimed. You didn’t have to look for them.
Fantasy Hockey Players to Watch
This week, we’ll dive into prospects and young players with less shine to them that are starting to pop. Trent Frederic, as an example, fits the mold I’m searching for here. I covered him in depth last week so I won’t rehash my thoughts on him. You won’t find ‘the next’ Connor McDavid like this, but you can scoop the next Owen Tippett or MacKenzie Weegar.
Here are a few names to consider moving forward.
Stefan Noesen, LW/RW, Carolina Hurricanes
At 327 career games, he has technically surpassed his breakout threshold. But one has to think, a player who can produce 36 points, 15 of them on the power play in only 12:20 ice time per game, might have more to give. 2:42 of that ice time was on the power play. In that limited role, he also produced 99 hits and 134 shots over 78 games (2022-23).
This year, he’s playing 12:11, with 1:48 on the power play, and is on pace to surpass his career high in goals, assists, and points. I know his 1.5 shots per game isn’t very flashy. Remember, this is in a very limited role. Consider last year, his shots on goal per 6o minutes (SOG/60) was 8.4. Mitch Marner’s SOG/60 this year is 7.1, and was 6.9, last year. It isn’t an elite SOG/60 number (Auston Matthews is 12.1), but it’s better than 1.5 SOG per game first appears.
There is a reason Carolina uses a fourth liner on their power play unit. He is an unrestricted free agent this summer. Look for him to search for a team that will provide more ice time and a larger offensive opportunity. Honestly, he’s a stereotypical Kyle Dubas-type of free agent.
Fabian Zetterlund, LW/RW, San Jose Sharks
He is a more traditional pick for this type of list. By mid-season, 2024-25, Zetterlund will surpass his 200-game, breakout threshold.
His point totals are not overly impressive with twelve goals, and six assists, for 18 points in 45 games. He has managed to produce 105 shots in 45 games.
As much as we look for linear trajectories in statistics, we need to keep in mind other factors are always at play. With Zetterlund for example, he plays on a Sharks team averaging 1.98 goals per game. His potential is suppressed from playing on a team that is offensively challenged.
Is the lack of production Zetterlund or is it the Sharks? Playing on a bad team can buffer off a player’s shine.
Cole Sillinger, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Talk about a player’s shine wearing off. He surprised a lot of people by making the Blue Jackets roster as a rookie. He then proceeded to put up a solid 16-goal and 31-point first season.
His second season was an 11-point write-off. And this year began similarly, including being sent to the AHL for a stint.
Sillinger now sits at 182 games played. A lot of fantasy hockey owners have moved on or are close to moving on. This is the time to buy.
In the last six games, Sillinger has seen a steady increase in ice time. From 15:43 on January 2, 2024, to 24:35 on January 15th. In the last four games, he’s gone from not being on the power play to averaging three minutes per game.
Nicolas Roy, C/LW Vegas Golden Knights
At 6’4″, Roy could still be two full seasons from hitting his breakout threshold. I think Lawson Crouse is a decent progression comparison.
Yet, an opportunity has presented itself to Roy that no one expected. Vegas is now down two of their top three centers. Both William Karlsson and Jack Eichel are both on injured reserve. Roy now sits in a prominent offensive role for the foreseeable future.
He might not officially break out for two more seasons, but he now has the opportunity to showcase he can handle a larger role moving forward. He might be one of the better immediate options on this list due to the injuries plaguing Vegas.
Jack McBain, C, Arizona Coyotes
McBain missed time this year due to injury. He also remains in a bottom-six role at least for the rest of this season. Perhaps the trade deadline will open up some additional ice time. Jason Zucker is an unrestricted free agent and a prime candidate to be traded.
As a rookie, McBain posted 304 hits. This year, his hit rates have dropped almost in half. His 82-game protection would still give him 175. Only averaging one shot per game, McBain has to adopt more of a shoot-first mentality to take an offensive step forward.
Barring any further injuries, McBain should hit the 200-game mark at the beginning of 2025.
I know I harp on shot rates, but it is one of those stats I believe everyone needs to contribute to. I’ll be watching his shot totals very closely for this year and next. I’ll also be watching his ice time. He also needs a larger role to take a real step.
In the meantime, those hits are nice. He’s a nice complementary piece for someone amid a rebuild and looking to make a strong push in one to two years.
Bonus Deep Dive:
Keifer Bellows, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
If you want to pan for buried treasure, this is the type of player you try to uncover. I will be the first to admit this selection is, at present time, a long shot at best.
The Maple Leafs signed Bellows to an AHL player tryout. The tryout went the maximum of 25 games before offering him a one-year AHL contract.
That AHL contract speaks volumes to how far Bellows’s stock has fallen. For most fantasy hockey dynasties, Bellows isn’t even a buy-low anymore, he’s an add him for free.
His 25-game tryout was as impressive as anyone could have hoped for. He’s now played 26 games for the Marlies. He has 15 goals, and 12 assists for 27 points. He’s also firing 3.5 pucks on net per game.
He offers no help this year. But the Leafs are always looking for cheap, secondary scoring options.
This is the reason we play fantasy hockey dynasty pools. You know, that feeling you get when you scoop an unexpected player and he hits.
That will do it for this week. Thanks for reading
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