I hope everyone continues to be profitable playing NFL DFS even if the math says that’s impossible. Regardless, last week is in the past and we have a new week of action in front of us. I intend to help you make the Divisional round of NFL DFS a week to remember as you finish in the green. With that being said, let us jump right into my top Divisional round DFS picks. Now that we are in the postseason, it becomes a very different game. This week, we have eight active teams, so the player pool is compressed, but the action will electrifying.
Each week, I will take a look at one option at each position that can be a nice piece in your lineup. Additionally, I will provide one stud and one value option to target along with one expected bust.
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NFL Divisional Round DFS Picks
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,000
Even if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers leave Detroit on the wrong side of the score, it should still be a strong game for Baker Mayfield. Last week, the Lions defeated Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, but it was a strong DFS game for Stafford, who threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns, and it didn’t exactly come as a surprise.
The Lions have allowed the third most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Mayfield should be no different this week. Last week, Mayfield torched the Philadelphia Eagles for 337 yards and three touchdowns. He has had a surprisingly strong season, and with plenty of weapons, Mayfield should be able to move the ball down the field with ease.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs, $6,400
It is all about volume at the running back position. With Isiah Pacheco, we certainly get that as the Chiefs running back has become the true bell cow. Granted the Chiefs had a big lead against the Miami Dolphins last week, but Pacheco carried the ball 24 times.
Pacheco gained 87 yards while also finding the end zone once again. It was the fifth touchdown in five weeks for Pacheco who has 11 touchdowns on the season while also breaking the 1,000-yard mark. The deeper we get into the postseason, the harder it becomes to find value. Instead, the thought process here is to look for an affordably priced option who gets 20 carries and has a nose for the end zone.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,300
If we are in on Mayfield, it makes sense to pair him with a receiver. Chris Godwin is fairly priced this week heading into a great matchup against the Lions. After catching 87 passes for 1,069 yards in the regular season, Godwin caught another four passes for 45 yards and a touchdown last week.
While dealing with a nagging injury, Godwin is back on the practice field, and nothing should hold him back this week. We know that Mayfield is comfortable looking Godwin’s way and Detroit’s defense is more than hospitable.
Tight End
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers, $5,200
After Jake Ferguson caught three touchdowns last week against the Dallas Cowboys, how can we not look at George Kittle? After sitting out the last week of the regular season with back spasms, Kittle returned to practice this week and is ready to go.
Kittle finished the year with 65 catches for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns as a critical part of the 49ers’ offense. There are no concerns with role, health, or target share and that makes a big difference.
Defense
Buffalo Bills, $2,800
Once we get to the postseason, it goes without saying that offenses get better. That means that selecting a defense gets more difficult, but we also have some strong teams to choose from.
Targeting Kansas City might seem odd, but their offense is not what it once was. Buffalo has turned in another strong year defensively allowing just 18.2 points per game. From a DFS perspective, they also make things happen. The Bills have 19 interceptions along 13 fumble recoveries to go along with 55 sacks. Those scoring opportunities are what we are after.
DFS Stud
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, $8,200
Let’s run it back here with Amon-Ra St. Brown this week and look for a touchdown. While St. Brown didn’t score a touchdown last week, he had yet another strong game. St. Brown was targeted nine times and turned that into seven receptions for 110 yards.
Detroit has another home game so we don’t have any weather concerns this week. For as much as we are targeting Tampa Bay’s passing offense against Detroit, opposing receivers have had success against the Buccaneers as well. St. Brown is coming off another monster season with 1,625 yards and 10 touchdowns. There is no reason why he can’t have another strong game.
DFS Value
John Metchie, Houston Texans, $3,400
With Noah Brown out for the season and Robert Woods banged up, there is an opening opposite Nico Collins. We can’t overstate the level of success Collins is having this year, but there are some available targets.
The Texans will have to take it to the air in an attempt to keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. As opposing defenses likely concentrate on Collins, Metchie should be able to sneak up under the radar. Last week, he caught all three of his targets for 44 yards as he continues to find his footing. Ultimately by default, Metchie should see a spike in targets this week. The good news is that he has proven to be capable of securing the ball when it is thrown his way.
DFS Bust
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions, $6,600
While the rookie did score a touchdown last week, Jahmyr Gibbs did not have a large role in the Detroit running game. The passing game will be heavily featured, and it shouldn’t be surprising to see David Montgomery heavily featured. That led to Gibbs carrying the ball just eight times last week, for 25 yards, and something similar will likely be coming this week.
In this situation, it also doesn’t help that Tampa Bay is allowing the third-fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs this season. Gibbs will add a few catches, but his real value is tied to him finding the end zone, and we can’t minimize the impact of Montgomery.
For a little more help with this weekend’s NFL DFS Picks make sure to check out Colin McTamany’s Divisional Round Rankings.