Injuries can be the difference between playoff contention or tanking, and a player successfully coming off of injury can make the difference. This year, there are several key performers that can bolster a team’s playoff success.
One of the largest examples of this was New Orleans and Zion Williamson and Williamson Fantasy owners. Watching the Pelicans play 29 games with him after a full season really put a damper on expectations. Even with Brandon Ingram taking another huge step forward, no one could recover. Especially not gamblers taking a flier on their playoff and win potential. Examining different returning players can be frustrating. Considering injury history and level, as well as team structure and role must play a vital part in draft-ability.
Below we will examine six players coming off of significant injuries and what we can expect from them in fantasy basketball this season.
Key NBA Players Returning From Injury
I want to start this off with two rankings, one for pure potential and one for likeliness in contributing the most games. It is important to have that distinction to make a properly informed decision.
Potential:
- Zion Williamson
- LaMelo Ball
- Cade Cunningham
- Chet Holmgren
- Steven Adams
- Collin Sexton
Playability
- Steven Adams
- Collin Sexton
- LaMelo Ball
- Cade Cunningham
- Chet Holmgren
- Zion Williamson
1. LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets, G)
LaMelo Ball is the future of the Charlotte Hornets, and the only All-Star guard on this list. Given that his ceiling in two seasons was All-Star to potential multi-year All-Star, it’s safe to say that with an average of 63 games played, he will be the biggest contributor to a successful fantasy team. There’s not much more to say than that. Other than he has averaged 21.1 PPG/7.9 APG/6.6 RPG with a steal and a half per game. Very few guards put up those kinds of numbers, especially not on 42%/38%/86% shooting. With new additions Brandon Miller and the success of Mark Williams, the Hornets are surrounding Ball with a steady and stable team with compliments to his abilities. Personally, the two ball-dominant guards are not my favorite lineup build, but Rozier being there gives plenty of opportunity for those assists and gravity. LaMelo Ball in a free-flowing and dynamic offense will be fun to watch!
2. Steven Adams (Memphis Grizzlies, C)
This may be a hot take, but given Zion Williamson’s health history, I cannot in good conscience put him at the top of this list. A few notes on the validity of Steven Adams. First, he’s played more games than any other player on this list per season. Second, he is only 30 years old, which is incredibly surprising given how long he has been in the league. Third, although his free throw shot is awful, he puts up good, stable numbers for centers. He gets rebounds, blocks, and nearly double-digit points. Third, Adams is a top-15 passer out of the center position, with 2-3+ assists per game over the last two seasons. Adams is not going to be a super high draft pick and is well worth the selection in later rounds or to trade for in shallower dynasty leagues.
3. Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons, G)
Cade Cunningham has not lived up to the hype. This is not a knock on his ability or his potential. This is merely stating the fact. Cunningham has only played 76 games in two seasons, so his not living up to the hype is not all his fault. Cunningham has a rare opportunity this year to do so. The Pistons have built a team to give Cade some security and options when he’s operating off of the wing as a wing creator. Almost everyone on planet Earth says that he will be the point guard on this team. His archetype to watch is Paul George, and I anticipate him playing the two-guard and three. He will add value in all aspects, and his shot will come around to being at least league-average.
4. Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans, F)
Zion would be the number one player on this list if he had played more than 30 games once in his entire career. Do not trust him to play more than 50 games. If the selection comes up in the first round, and your entire season hinges on that pick, then Zion is not the selection to make. If you play fantasy football or fantasy baseball, it will go something like this: If you select Christian McCaffrey or Mike Trout at 1.1, they will play only half the games. However, if you don’t select them, they will play the entire season. Plainly, Zion won’t play the whole season, and I do not think he ever will. He will be a great player to have for 50 games, but the justification and price for that just is not worth it. Maybe he is too low on this list, just on talent alone. Constantly getting burned should still sit with you in regarding Zion on this list.
5. Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder, F/C)
Holding Holmgren’s specific size against him is unfortunate but necessary. Players over 7 ft have always had an issue staying healthy, and Holmgren is no different. He has already missed an entire season. Although I love his odds to be rookie of the year (+300), Holmgren is not the safest or highest potential player on this list, which is unfortunate because he’s leagues and bounds ahead in potential compared to the player following him on this list. Expect Holmgren to produce well for the OKC Thunder, closing in on a double-double per game with most likely nearly a block and steal. Holmgren makes good shot decisions, generally, so expect him to not hinder those categories with his overall play.
6. Collin Sexton (Utah Jazz, G)
Sexton is a bit underrated. After moving to the bench last season with the Jazz before getting hurt for the rest of the season, he averaged 14.3/2.2/2.9 but with a career-high 50.6% FG and 39.3% 3P%. He seems to have turned a corner shooting-wise in Salt Lake City, and given the roster depth, it is safe to assume he will accumulate as many if not more minutes than last year. As it stands right now, Sexton is the starter on a versatile and large Jazz roster with plenty of shooting and scoring. Expect him to raise his assist rates a bit!
There are a few players we may have missed, but as of right now, these are the top six comeback candidates from a fantasy perspective. Good luck!
Got a beef with our consensus shooting guard rankings? Let the guys hear about it in the comments below! In the meantime check out all the great analysis in our 2023 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!