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Fantasy Baseball FAAB Recommendations for MLB Week 5

We would all love to win our league on Draft Day, but that’s simply not possible. The fantasy baseball waiver wire is a necessary tool for fortifying your roster. How much FAAB should you be willing to spend on some of the hot adds? Here’s a look at some of the players, generally owned in 50% or less of leagues, who may be worth considering.

More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers

Fantasy Baseball FAAB Recommendations

Matt Mervis – Chicago Cubs

Mervis has gotten off to a strong start at Triple-A.  Over 112 PA he’s hitting .286 with 13 extra-base hits (7 doubles and 6 HR), 27 RBI, and 27 R.  More importantly, he’s shown a strong eye, with a 16.1% walk rate and 10.3% SwStr%.  Obviously the Cubs aren’t bringing him to the Majors to sit on the bench, especially with their DH combining for the sixth worst OPS (.655).

The approach is impressive, and there’s also ample power.  Last season he hit 36 HR across three levels.  He added 40 doubles and 2 triples, so it’s hard to argue the upside.

Worried about him being a platoon player?  It’s a small sample size, but the split was strong at Triple-A this season:

  • RHP – .282/.376/.521
  • LHP – .300/.481/.700

Opportunity + Power + Strong Approach?  While all rookies bring risk, the upside is far too high not to go all in on him.

Verdict – Must Add
FAAB – 15-20% (While $200 in a $1,000 FAAB is pushing it, it’s not unreasonable if he’s available)

Michael King – New York Yankees

Clay Holmes has blown 2 of his 6 save opportunities.  Could the Yankees look to make a change?  King already has a pair of saves.  He’s also shown all of the skills we look for in a pitcher:

  • Strikeouts – 10.38 K/9
  • Control – 2.08 BB/9
  • Groundballs – 51.1%

Just to make him more attractive as a potential closer, Andy Martino recently tweeted:

“The plan for Yankees’ Michael King will soon progress to where he’s available on consecutive days for shorter stints.”

If you are searching for saves, he’s an ideal player to stash.

Verdict – Must Add Potential Closer
FAAB – 7.5-10% ($100 in a $1,000 FAAB is extreme, but he’s worth $60-75 even as a setup man)

Matt Vierling – Detroit Tigers

Vierling has been hitting atop the Tigers’ batting order against lefties, while hitting towards the bottom against righties.  Regardless of where he’s hitting, he’s been in the lineup nearly every day.  Opportunity is key.  While he was 0-3 on Thursday, he had gone 7-19 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 1 SB in the previous five games.

While he doesn’t have extreme power or speed, he has shown some skills:

  • Average Exit Velocity – 90.6 mph
  • SwStr% – 7.2%
  • Stolen Bases – He did steal 15 bases in 452 PA last season

Could he develop into a 15/15 type player?  It’s not impossible, and with the ability to play all across the field the upside is there to make an impact.

Verdict – Deep League Add with Upside
FAAB – 2% (Think $10-15 max, but likely available for much less)

LaMonte Wade Jr. – San Francisco Giants

He’s been an OBP monster early on, with a .442 over 106 PA.  The key has been his monstrous 21.7% walk rate, though how likely is that to continue?  He doesn’t offer much else, despite his 6 HR.  He’s added just 3 doubles, with an 88.3 average Exit Velocity and an average home run distance of 399 feet.  The OBP is going to fall…  His power is going to plummet…  He doesn’t offer much speed…

Verdict – Short-Term Streamer
FAAB – 1% (He’s a $0 bid, if applicable)

Connor Wong – Boston Red Sox

Owners are always looking for a productive catcher, and Wong has suddenly erupted.  He’s hitting .284 with 3 HR over 74 PA, but he’s been red hot over his four-game hitting streak.  He’s gone 10-17 with 3 HR, 4 RBI and 5 R over this stretch. It’s such a small sample, it certainly is skewing the overall numbers.  Considering his poor approach (14.0% SwStr%, 40.0% O-Swing%) and high groundball rate (56.5%), it’s hard to expect big things long-term.

Verdict – Short-Term Streamer
FAAB – 1% (He’s a $0 bid, if applicable)

Marcell Ozuna – Atlanta Braves

Just when we thought he was washed up, Ozuna has exploded over the past two days (4-9, 3 HR, 6 RBI).  Is that really enough to convince anyone that he’s a long-term solution, however?  Two days can’t wipe away the stench of a .226 hitter or worse over the past three season.

Verdict – Short-Term Streamer
FAAB – 1% (He’s a $0 bid, if applicable)

Dylan Dodd – Atlanta Braves

There should be more strikeout stuff than he’s shown (4.11 K/9 in his first three starts).  He also owns pinpoint control.  Those two things should combine for some upside, but is that enough?  A 2021 third-round pick, his MLB.com scouting report doesn’t bring much excitement:

“In many ways, particularly the feel for pitching without wow stuff, Dodd is like the left-handed version of fellow Braves prospect Darius Vines. While Dodd’s fastball sits around 92 mph, it’s a bit more playable than Vines’ heater because it has more life and higher spin to it. He throws his changeup and slider in the low 80s, and both are at least above-average offerings. The former has good depth and deception, and the latter is a sweeper that also misses bats. He can fold in a slower curve as well.”

Most project him as a #4 or 5 stater, so keep that upside in mind before paying a ransom for him.

Verdict – Streaming Option
FAAB – 2-5% (there’s some upside, but paying more than $25 in a $1,000 would be a mistake)

 

Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com, MLB.com, Baseball Savant

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