The Home of Fantasy Sports Analysis

Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 2023 Fantasy Football

It’s the busiest time of the year for dynasty fantasy football managers. Following the 2023 NFL Draft, dynasty rookie drafts will be underway soon enough, with some kicking off as soon as The Draft concluded. The top of this year’s rookie drafts feel chalky. Toward the end of Round 1, though, everyone’s drafts are going to look very different.

Superflex dynasty leagues are going to see an obvious boost to the values of Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, and C.J. Stroud. As three of the top four picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the only first-round quarterbacks selected, they hold the most value. For 1QB leagues, I only expect Anthony Richardson to come off of the board in the first round of those dynasty rookie drafts.

The most important thing to keep in mind is to get your guys. While some analysts or your league mates may have certain players going later in rounds or drafts entirely, use your picks in ways that best suit your team. So, as we dive into my 1QB dynasty rookie mock draft, it’s okay if you feel differently about where certain players should come off of the board. Of course, I’ll explain my reasoning but would appreciate any further discussion in the comments or on Twitter, @Colin_McT. Happy drafting!

What!? Your fantasy football league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax last season!? Once you see how Fantrax stacks up to the competition, we think you’ll be singing a different tune this season.

2023 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, 1QB, PPR


1.01: Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons head coach, Arthur Smith, is the former offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans. In that role during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, running back, Derrick Henry, won back-to-back rushing titles. He averaged 359 touches per season, 94.8% of which were rushing attempts. Bijan Robinson is more versatile than Henry with a much higher receiving upside. While he may not average 359 touches per season under Smith, he may come close with a higher quality of touches as a pass-catching back. Robinson is the clear-cut top pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

1.02: Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Detroit Lions

Selecting Jahmyr Gibbs second overall in a dynasty rookie draft was quite a debate after he came off of the board 12th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Then the Lions traded D’Andre Swift to the Philadelphia Eagles. Gibbs is arguably the best receiving back in this class. He has a legitimate shot to finish behind only wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in targets as a rookie in Detroit. The Lions cannot stop gushing about Gibbs and, given the draft capital, I expect a ton of touches out of the gate. He’s going to command the majority of Swift and Jamaal Williams‘ 82.7% vacated running back touches from the 2022 Lions offense, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.

1.03: Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings

The next four picks of this dynasty rookie mock draft are the four receivers taken in a row in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. There are definitely various ways to rank and draft them, but I’m confident in Jordan Addison as the top option of the group. He’s going to draw coverage from defenses that are busy enough trying to cover Justin Jefferson opposite of him. Minnesota also ranked third in pass attempts (39.6 per game) last season. With Adam Thielen no longer on the team, Addison should step in as the second option in the passing game. He’s an excellent route runner, athletic, and capable of putting up big numbers, evident by his 100/1,593/17 receiving line at Pittsburgh in 2021. There’s a chance both Jefferson and Addison are set-and-forget weekly starters on 2023 fantasy teams.

1.04: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is probably the only receiver others have as the 1.03 pick in dynasty rookie drafts. He’s going to have an immediate impact for the Seahawks, though it may not translate to immediate, elite fantasy production. He’s competing with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and a talented backfield for targets. I expect JSN to work the middle of the field with a good amount of receptions and opportunities to rack up yards after the catch. In 2024, Seattle may move on from Lockett for financial reasons. Hopefully, they’ll also make some sort of move indicating which quarterback is next up after Geno Smith.

1.05: Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Baltimore Ravens

Drafting Zay Flowers hours after signing Lamar Jackson to a $260 million deal is significant. It’s yet another encouraging step by the Ravens toward supporting their franchise quarterback. Flowers is twitchy, explosive, and can make the case of the Ravens’ WR1 in 2023. Sure, signing Odell Beckham Jr. is nice, but it’s a one-year deal, he’s torn his ACL twice in the same knee and hasn’t played football since February of 2022. Rashod Bateman has health concerns of his own and figures to be more of a deep threat. Flowers is a matchup nightmare, especially after adding 15 pounds of muscle and still clocking in at 4.42 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Draft Combine. He’s not as big as those drafted ahead of him, but he’s in a great spot to succeed accompanied by a tremendous story and work ethic.

1.06: Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, Los Angeles Chargers

I’m sticking by my decision to give Quentin Johnston the “Most Likely to Succeed in 2024” award in my NFL Draft superlatives list. Spending significant draft capital on Johnston prior to signing Justin Herbert to a big contract is meaningful. It’s worth noting that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams could be gone as soon as next offseason. The Chargers will save a combined $43 million against the cap by releasing them at the start of the 2024 off-season. Johnston could be L.A.’s top wide receiver as soon as next year. He could use a year to polish his play, but there’s a lot to be excited about given his 6’4″, 215-pound frame, 40″ vertical, and sub-4.50 [40-yard dash] speed.

1.07: Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen has a big, new weapon. After trading up in the first round to select Dalton Kincaid, Bills General Manager, Brandon Beane noted Kincaid’s hands, alluding that he would play a lot of games in the slot. He’s an extremely capable receiving tight end who averaged nearly six receptions for 74 yards per game in his final season at Utah while finding the end zone eight times. Since 2019, Josh Allen fed 100 or more targets seven different times to players over those four seasons. Cole Beasley, out of the slot, notably drew 100+ targets for three years straight from 2019 to 2021. Kincaid legitimately may join Stefon Diggs in doing so this season, especially if Buffalo does want Allen to run less.

1.08: Devon Achane, Running Back, Miami Dolphins

Prior to the NFL Draft, slotting in Devon Achane as the RB3 off of the board in a rookie mock draft is not something I thought to be probable. Landing in Miami behind 27-year-old Jeff Wilson Jr. and 31-year-old Raheem Mostert helps. Both backs are known for missing time due to injury. Achane is blazing fast and big play maker. He has a career average of 6.4 yards per carry on 396 attempts over three seasons at Texas A&M. Achane lands on a high-scoring offense and is a fun prospect that could have a solid return on investment as soon as this season.

1.09: Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Indianapolis Colts

I’m having a hard time finding a positional player I love enough to select over Anthony Richardson in this dynasty mock draft, but I can’t. Richardson’s upside is just too much, especially given the draft capital of the fourth-overall pick. His new head coach, Shane Steichen, is the former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator who maximized Jalen Hurts’ strengths, specifically with running the ball. Richardson is inexperienced with just 393 collegiate pass attempts. However, he shattered combine workout records, has a cannon for an arm, and is supported by a strong run game and young, capable pass catchers in Indy.

1.10: Rashee Rice, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs

I’m bumping up Rashee Rice further than others in dynasty mock drafts because of draft capital and landing spot. The second-round pick is going to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes out of the gate. Nearly half of the 2022 Chiefs wide receiver targets are up for grabs with the departure of both Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in free agency. Rice’s final season at SMU yielded 96 receptions, 1,335 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 12 games. He scored 19 touchdowns in 24 games over his final two seasons on just 160 receptions. Travis Kelce is turning 34, Kadarius Toney is touch-and-go with injuries, and second-year receiver, Skyy Moore, is Rice’s only real other competition for targets.

1.11: Jonathan Mingo, Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers

Jonathan Mingo comes from Ole Miss who has seen D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Elijah Moore have success over the last few seasons in the NFL. He slides into a Panthers offense desperate for a young playmaker, especially for first overall pick, quarterback, Bryce Young. Mingo is one of the larger quarterbacks in this draft at 6’2″, 225 pounds. He doesn’t boast a ton of college production, but he is a gifted athlete on a completely revamped team, with new coaches, a quarterback, and offensive weapons. The 39th-overall pick will compete with Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark for looks from Bryce Young. Mingo is one of a few rookies who could lead his respective team in targets.

1.12: Zach Charbonnet, Running Back, Seattle Seahawks

I’m reluctantly labeling Zach Charbonnet a first-round pick in dynasty rookie mock drafts. This landing spot breaks my heart. Rather than heading somewhere in a projected starting role in 2023, or even 2024, Charbonnet will be sharing the Seahawks backfield with Kenneth Walker III for at least the next three seasons. I still believe in the player as he averaged 20.8 touches per game over his final two seasons at UCLA. He also averaged 1,507 all-purpose yards over those two seasons. If either Walker or Charbonnet was to miss time at any point, the other catapults into RB1 territory for fantasy football. Together, though, it’s hard to trust either as an RB2, but rather high-end flex options week-to-week.


2.01: Roschon Johnson, Running Back, Chicago Bears

I believe Roschon Johnson to be one of the most pro-ready running backs in this class. Fantasy managers may overlook him as “Bijan Robinson’s backup from Texas” and the eighth running back off of the board in the NFL Draft, but he’s going to get on the field quickly. He is a strong runner who is further ahead than most rookies in being able to pass protect. Justin Fields is going to rush his fair share, but Johnson has a chance to beat out Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman as this team’s RB1.

2.02: Michael Mayer, Tight End, Las Vegas Raiders

After losing Darren Waller to a trade and Foster Moreau to free agency/medical concern, the Raiders had a serious vacancy at tight end. Michael Mayer joins Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard as newcomers in Vegas at the position. It may be a bit before Mayer is a consistent producer in fantasy football. Davante Adams should still dominate targets in Las Vegas with Josh Jacobs generating a ton of his opportunities in the run game. Mayer is still a strong receiving tight end and should be drafted as a top-10 dynasty tight end in rookie drafts.

2.03: Kendre Miller, Running Back, New Orleans Saints

The Saints choosing to spend a third-round pick (71st overall) on the fourth running back of the NFL Draft could further suggest a looming suspension for Alvin Kamara. Don’t let that take away from what Kendre Miller brings to the table. In one season as TCU’s starter, he rushed 224 times for 1,399 yards (6.2 average) and a whopping 17 touchdowns. Coincidentally, his new teammate, Jamaal Williams just led the league in rushing touchdowns last season with 17 of his own. Both Kamara and Williams will be 28 years old by the start of the 2023 season. Miller is turning 21 in June.

2.04: Bryce Young, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers

It feels wrong to wait this long in a dynasty rookie mock draft to select the top pick and quarterback from the NFL Draft. However, if you have a need at the position, this is probably the time to draft Bryce Young. I’ll be blunt: His size scares me. Young is going to start right away and is surrounded by tremendous coaches. I’m just skeptical in investing high draft capital for someone his size, who plays a very important position, in a dynasty league. Bryce Young is pro-ready, but if I don’t need a quarterback, I’d rather invest in Young by drafting his potential WR1 in Jonathan Mingo in a rookie dynasty draft.

2.05: Jayden Reed, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers

Similar to the aforementioned Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed has a chance to lead his respective team in targets in 2023. Of course, Christian Watson is probably the favorite to do so, given his one-year rapport with now starting quarterback, Jordan Love. However, Reed is one of five pass catchers heading to Green Bay as a result of the 2023 NFL Draft. Green Bay used a second-round pick on him, as well. That could suggest a total overhaul of their offense giving Jordan Love as many weapons as possible to work with.

2.06, Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, New York Giants

The last wide receiver of this class with a chance to lead his team in targets is Jalin Hyatt of the New York Giants. There are plenty of new faces in the Giants’ wide receiver room, but Hyatt should stand out. His speed should separate him from his teammates in competition for playing time and defenders in game action. Hyatt isn’t the largest pass catcher, but that didn’t stop him from posting a 67/1,267/15 stat line in his final season at the University of Tennessee.

2.07: Tyjae Spears, Running Back, Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry is probably playing in Tennessee for the 2023 season. If that changes before your dynasty rookie draft, then Tyjae Spears gets a bump up into the first round. Even with Henry seeing the bulk of the carries, Spears should mix in early and often himself. This is going to be a run-heavy team yet again, especially after failing to add any pass catchers this off-season. There are red flag reports regarding Spears’ history of knee injuries. That could mean Spears’ career is shorter but sweet.

2.08: Marvin Mims, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims‘ 4.38 time is one of the fastest at his position for the 40-yard dash this year at the NFL Draft Combine. That speed is heading to the Denver Broncos offense. Denver just exercised Jerry Jeudy‘s fifth-year option, but there’s still a chance Courtland Sutton is traded. Either way, Mims could work on to the field quickly as a deep threat for Russell Wilson. Mims has a 19.5 yards per reception average from his time at Oklahoma.

2.09: C.J. Stroud, Quarterback, Houston Texans

Before diving into the final tiers of running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends in this rookie dynasty mock draft, this is probably the last realistic spot to select the last remaining, first round quarterback from the NFL Draft, C.J. Stroud. He’s set up to be the future of the Houston Texans, as the second overall pick, but his initial weapons are completely lackluster. Stroud is an accurate passer who should develop a rapport with Robert Woods, but I expect Houston to run the ball frequently in Stroud’s rookie season.

2.10: Sam LaPorta, Tight End, Detroit Lions

Detroit is replacing T.J. Hockenson, after trading him last season, with another Iowa tight end, Sam LaPorta. They even used the 34th overall pick to do so. LaPorta has an outside chance, but a chance nonetheless, to carve out a significant role in the Lions’ 2023 passing game. With Jameson Williams suspended the first six games, and not many options beyond Amon-Ra St. Brown, he could be an asset and surprisingly successful rookie tight end. Though Hockenson, George Kittle, Noah Fant, and others had come before him at the University of Iowa, he set the school record for most receptions (153) as a tight end.

2.11: Tank Bigsby, Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars

Tank Bigsby is obviously Travis Etienne‘s handcuff. Managers with Etienne on their rosters should make drafting him a priority in dynasty rookie drafts. Bigsby could be a threat to red-zone and goal-line touches. Though similarly sized, Bigsby comes across as a stronger runner, especially between the tackles. Etienne should remain more involved in the passing game, but both could be relevant on an ascending Jacksonville Jaguars offense.

2.12: Josh Downs, Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts

Downs’ role in the slot and size, at just 5’10” and 180 pounds, is the only reason he’s rounding out the end of the second round in this dynasty rookie mock draft. The receivers before him provide more upside with their landing spot and projected roles. However, Downs’ production from his time at UNC cannot be ignored. He totaled 195 receptions for 2,364 yards and 19 touchdowns in 24 games over his final two seasons. Downs, a third-round NFL Draft pick, should win the starting slot job in Indy. He will have to compete with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce over the next few years for targets amongst wide receivers.


3.01: Chase Brown, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals

At a minimum, Chase Brown is Samaje Perine‘s replacement after he left in free agency. That’s a significant handcuff role. At best, if Joe Mixon misses time for any reason, he is the starting running back for the Bengals. Brown enters the pros with 676 carries from his college days including a very notable 328 attempts in his final season.

3.02: Cedric Tillman, Wide Receiver, Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns clearly want to pass more. Not only are they heavily invested financially in quarterback Deshaun Watson, but they traded a second-round pick for Elijah Moore then drafted Cedric Tillman in the third round. They join Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku as last year’s primary pass catchers. Tillman is a solid stash with upside at this point in the dynasty rookie mock draft.

3.03: Luke Musgrave, Tight End, Green Bay Packers

After letting Robert Tonyan walk in free agency, one would think the Packers need to replace him in the passing game. However, we have no idea what a consistent Jordan Love run offense looks like. Green Bay added three receivers and two tight ends in this NFL Draft. As the 42nd overall pick, Musgrave has as good of a chance as others there to stand out. I don’t expect any immediate fantasy impact, though.

3.04: Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, Wide Receiver, Houston Texans

It seems C.J. Stroud is one, if not the, reason the Texans drafted Tank Dell. Supposedly, Stroud suggested drafting Dell and the Texans got it done in the third round. Dell’s back-to-back seasons at Houston with over 90 receptions, 1,300 yards, and a total of 29 touchdowns stand out. However, so does his stature at just 5’10” and a discouraging 155 pounds.

3.05: Israel Abanikanda, Running Back, New York Jets

There are rumors that the Jets were interested in drafting Jahmyr Gibbs with their first-round pick. Instead, they wait until round five to add Abanikanda into the mix. All of this suggests that maybe Breece Hall may not be ready for Week 1. Even if he is, with a newly opened window to win now with Aaron Rodgers, having strong running back depth isn’t a bad thing. We’ve also seen slow starts from running backs returning from ACL tears before. Abanikanda rushed 239 timees for 1,431 yards and 20 touchdowns in his final year at Pittsburgh.

3.06: Eric Gray, Running Back, New York Giants

Eric Gray is Saquon Barkley‘s primary handcuff for fantasy football. Managers with Saquon should prioritize drafting Gray in their dynasty rookie drafts. Gray is fully capable of a heavy workload and offers receiving upside. As of now, Saquon Barkley is set to play under the one-year franchise tag, assuming he even signs it and shows up to.

3.07: Will Levis, Quarterback, Tennessee Titans

The last quarterback to consider in this dynasty rookie mock draft is Will Levis. The Tennessee Titans traded up to get Levis at the start of the second round. He is the apparent heir to Ryan Tannehill who is set to be a free agent next off-season. Levis has a strong arm and will benefit from a year behind Tannehill, but the Titans need to improve their wide receiver group to feel better about Levis’ long-term value.

3.08:  Zach Evans, Running Back, Los Angeles Rams

The Cam Akers bounce back in 2022 is one of the more exciting stories from the 2022 fantasy football season. Still, he does have a history of a torn Achilles. Evans has just 290 carries from his three-year college career, though a 6.9 yards per carry average. He should win the backup job, with potential for more, over Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers, both of whom were underwhelming in 2022. He’s one of my top sleeper picks of this 2023 dynasty rookie class.

3.09: A.T. Perry, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints

I am disappointed to have seen the 6’3″, 205 pound receiver from Wake Forrest fall to the sixth round of the NFL Draft. As a result, he’s not a popular pick in dynasty rookie drafts. I do think Perry’s long arms and sub-4.5 speed could earn him a role on the Saints offense and looks from Derek Carr. I can only say Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are obvious starting receivers on this team and I don’t even feel too confident about the latter.

3.10: DeWayne McBride, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings

If Dalvin Cook is still a potential trade candidate, then DeWayne McBride could see a slight uptick in draft capital for dynasty rookie drafts. Assuming Cook does leave, McBride figures to be Alexander Mattison‘s handcuff. McBride is similarly sized to Mattison and has two seasons of over 200 carries in college. He adds nothing as a receiver with just five total receptions.

3.11: Tyler Scott, Wide Receiver, Chicago Bears

Tyler Scott has room to improve as an overall receiver, but if he does, there could be a quick opportunity for a role in this current Chicago Bears offense. He is a former Junior Olympic sprinter who has 10 touchdowns (of 14) that exceeded 30 yards during his college days. Scott figures to be a boom-or-bust pick in dynasty rookie drafts, but could be an asset to Justin Fields when the time is right.

3.12: Deuce Vaughn, Running Back, Dallas Cowboys

Deuce Vaughn is 5’6″ and 175 pounds. It’s amazing he has two seasons with 235 or more carries and over 1,200 yards in each. His 2021 season at Kansas State is his best with 235 carries for 1,404 yards and 18 touchdowns. While he could mix in to the Dallas backfield, the size does give me pause and it’s still Tony Pollard‘s job. Pollard is returning from a leg injury and will play under the one-year franchise tag. I do expect more warm bodies there, too, with a potential reunion with Ezekiel Elliott.

Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites over the last few years, and we’re not stopping now. We are the most customizable, easy-to-use, and feature-rich platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper, redraft, and best ball leagues. Fantasy sports doesn’t sleep, and neither does Fantrax, with seasons running 365 days a year. Take your fantasy leagues to the next level now at!
Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.