Welcome back to the second part of The Diamonds in the Rough. Just to recap, these are players who are not top 30 prospects for any team but are performing at a level that is hard to overlook. This entry will be dedicated to pitching prospects at the Low-A level. Please also check out my look at Underrated Hitting Prospects in Low-A.
Pitching prospects can be fickle and injury-ridden, making them hard to bank on as a fantasy owner. Usually, with exceptional success comes prospect status. Thus there will not be many entries for the lower levels. Most of the pitching prospects that fall under the categories we are looking for have ascended into one of the major publications’ top 30 prospects.
Honestly, a real shame. I wanted to write about an exceptional Minnesota Twins Low A pitching staff, but each of them was too good. They all made the top 30. Let’s get to the breakdowns!
Diamonds in the Rough: Low A Pitching Prospects
Analysis of minor league pitching prospects is interesting. Success breeds success, as they say. My parameters for inclusion in this article are as follows: under 24 years old in Low A, with good strikeout, control, and contact numbers. Good is subjective, but all of these marks are at least above average for the level. There are only two players that fit this category this time around, as opposed to the five hitters.
Cedric de Grandpre (ATL, 22, RHSP)
de Grandpre is an interesting test case. As a junior college pitcher, it is no surprise that he was only a 13th-round draft pick. Even with this in mind, his success to start the 2023 season earned him a blurb here. Although he pitched more this season than in his first stint in high-A, his season was great except for the last month. He consistently pitched over 4 innings, showing his ability to pitch longer in minor league games. Combine that with a strikeout rate well over 25% for his minor league career and a walk rate below 7% it may be worth keeping an eye on this Canadian.
He features a sinker that sits in the low 90s and a slider that is featured in the mid-to-low 80s as well as a changeup that does the same. The Atlanta Braves have produced a lot of quality pitchers recently with those features. With these three pitches, de Grandpre has been able to showcase an ability to get strikeouts and keep the ball on the ground. Having both is an important facet of long-term success and potential big-league success.
The Canadian started his 2023 campaign in Low-A, where he pitched 32.1 innings in 5 starts while striking out 32.0% of his batters faced and walking only 5.6%. His opponents hit ground balls 52.1% of the time and struggled to pull the ball at just 38.7% of the time.
His struggles in High A are a concern, but let’s use a little date manipulation. From May 30 until July 16 he sported a 3.60 ERA/2.87 FIP in 7 games started. That, combined with the 16.2% K-BB%, should give a glimpse into his true potential alongside his Low A statistics. First, de Grandpre had a 3.97 FIP, a full point, and a quarter lower than his 5.13 ERA in High A. Opponents hit 43.9% ground balls and pulled the ball less than 33% of the time. With all this in mind, Cedric de Grandpre is a player you can use as a free pickup or deep league draft pick on.
Jack Choate (SFG, 22, LHSP/RP)
Choate is another first-year reliever with an interesting second season. A native Floridian from Assumption College, the 6’6″ lefty competed well in his junior season at Assumption. In 67.1 innings, Choate gathered 121 strikeouts with only a 2.00 ERA as a starter in his draft year. Not much time was spent pitching afterward, as the Giants threw him only four innings in the Arizona summer league.
2023 was different. The southpaw made 10 starts for the Giants between Low-A and High-A. In those 10 starts, Choate posted a 2.74 ERA/3.34 FIP with a 25.6% K% and a 7.4 BB%. Throughout these two levels, hitters hit an even amount of ground balls and fly balls. Additionally, they pulled and hit to the opposite field equally. This success warranted a call to the Arizona Fall League. Although Choate had a quality season, his 5.51 ERA in Arizona left much to be desired in the results. However, he did strike out 21 players in 16.1 innings. This was good for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings in the AFL.
I can find little text on what speeds and pitches Choate has, but based on available video he throws a four-seamer and a slider with a tertiary change-up. At 6’6″, pitches like that will sneak up on hitters, which may explain his ability to get outs thus far.
Based on all of the aforementioned information, Jack Choate is a player to place a small gamble on. The organization favors him enough to send him to the Arizona Fall League, and his success as a starter has been good enough to reasonably project into higher levels. Expect him to enter the rotation once more at High A, with an early opportunity to move to AA with similar success.