It’s been a couple days since I had to mourn the loss of the Wizards’ win streak. I’m now a changed man. Hardened. It’s been a difficult journey to get to this point, but I’m ready to give you good folks some excellent NBA DFS targets for tonight’s slate. Sneak peek: Wizards beat the Lakers tonight by 15+. Onward!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for April 28
Magic vs. Cavaliers
SEXLAND! Sexton and Garland have proven to be excellent picks by the Cavaliers front office. While it’s clear they won’t be a winning team this year, their backcourt + Jarrett Allen show they’re at a much further point in their rebuild than the Magic. Cavs fans have plenty to be hopeful about. Sexton will likely miss the game tonight, but Allen and Garland are playing well enough to handle the load. Take the Cavs.
DFS Targets: ORL targets: Anthony, Ross (if he plays), Carter Jr. (minutes limit be damned), and Okeke. CLE targets: Garland, Allen, Osman, Love, and Wade for value.
Hawks vs. 76ers
No Trae, no chance. We don’t need to overthink this one. I’m not saying it’ll be a blowout. The Hawks still have some talent. That talent, however, is no match for the 2nd best defense in the league. At least not without Trae Young.
DFS Targets: ATL targets: Collins, Capela, Bogdanovic, and Hill (for value). PHI targets: Simmons, Embiid, Harris, and Green or Curry.
Lakers vs. Wizards
I was only half-joking in the introduction. I rarely ever have the confidence in the magnitude of a win, unless there’s a large competitive discrepancy. The Wizards are heavily incentivized to win this game with their playoff positioning, while the Lakers are just trying to get A.D. back in the swing of things. The only issue is that the Wizards’ two biggest weaknesses are defense and weak front-court talent. Exactly where the Lakers thrive. If I was being objective, I’d say the Lakers should win this game. I am not objective.
DFS Targets: LAL targets: Davis, Drummond, Kuzma, and Dennis the Menace. WAS targets: Beal, Russ, Bertans, and Rui.
Hornets vs. Celtics
The Hornets and Celtics are 22nd and 11th, respectively in net rating. 18th and 14th in terms of defensive rating. 18th and 12th in terms of offensive rating. The Celtics have turned things around, and there’s not a phase in the game that the Hornets do better than the Celtics. Boston should take this one.
DFS Targets: CHA targets: Graham, McDaniels, Rozier, and Bridges. BOS targets: Tatum, Brown, and Walker.
Bulls vs. Knicks
Much like the Wizards, the Knicks have just had their win steak snapped. Their reward? They get to start a new win streak against a Bulls team that hasn’t found their chemistry yet. LaVine and Vuc are a good start, but they don’t quite mesh yet. That takes time; Time they don’t have. Knicks take their 4th ranked defense in the league and handle this one easily.
DFS Targets: CHI targets: LaVine, Vuc, and White. NYK targets: Randle, Rose, Barrett, and Bullock.
Spurs vs. Heat
The Heat are “consistently inconsistent” according to Jimmy Butler. I’d have to agree with that. They’re coming off a loss to the Bulls, so the next logical step would be the Heat beating the Spurs…I think. These teams are 20th and 21st in net ratings, so it’s a toss-up anyway. My fake science is as good as any method to picking this one. Miami.
DFS Targets: SAS targets: Johnson, DeRozan, Murray, and Poeltl. MIA targets: Butler, Bam, Dragic, and Ariza for value.
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies
19th and 13th in net rating, respectively. 29th and 9th in defensive rating. 6th and 15th in offensive rating. I believe the Blazers’ defense is just bad enough, that it will outweigh their offensive advantage. The Grizz are also more incentivized to win, due to their playoff seed positioning. I like Memphis for this one.
DFS Targets: POR targets: Dame, CJ, Powell, and Nurkic. MEM targets: Morant, Anderson, Jonas, Brooks, and Allen for value.
Pelicans vs. Nuggets
Nuggets. I know Jamal Murray is out, but the Nuggets haven’t missed a beat. It helps to have an MVP on your team and other starters that can take on more of a load. I don’t anticipate a blowout, but Denver shouldn’t have a problem with New Orleans.
DFS Targets: NOP targets: Zion and Brandon Ingram. DEN targets: Jokic, MPJ, Barton, and Gordon.
Clippers vs. Suns
This should be the matchup of the night. This could be a glimpse at the Western Conference Finals matchup (it won’t be, but it could be!). Both teams are over 20 games above .500. Both teams are top four in net rating. The Suns are 6th in defense, while the Clippers are 11th. The Clippers are 2nd in offense, while the Suns are 7th. I honestly don’t know who has the edge. I wouldn’t bet this one, unless someone from the Clippers sits out. Then I’d take the Suns. All I know is that all my east coast fans should stay up and watch this game.
DFS Targets: LAC targets: George, Leonard, Morris, and Zubac. PHO targets: CP3, Booker, Ayton, and Bridges.
Jazz vs. Kings
Jazz.
DFS Targets: Don’t target players from blowout games. Too dangerous. Especially on a big slate like tonight’s.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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LaVine is still out
Great catch!