We started off our month with a bad beat. We had Kevin Durant UNDER 21, so naturally, he drops 23 on a tight minutes restriction. In hindsight, I broke one of my own rules: Never bet against Kevin Durant. That was then. This is now. Onward! With prop bets, we don’t need to wait for season-long storylines to play out. Every day is a new day. Fantrax wants to help you win a bit of money, so we will be giving you NBA Player Prop Bets every week. We’ll shy away from keying in on any particular sportsbook, as we know odds vary, and so do props. We’ll focus on our projections, and allow you to find your best odds. Let’s get into today’s prop bets.
NBA Player Prop Bets for March 2
James Harden UNDER 27 Points:
Last night, Joel Embiid missed the game with a foot injury, leading to James Harden needing to take over offensively like the good ol’ days. You’d think he’d drop at least 30 on an inconsistent Heat squad. However, he only dropped 23 points. On top of that, he’s averaging only 21 on the season. So heading into a matchup vs. Dallas (29th in pace), a team like the Sixers (26th in pace) will be in for a lethargic, plodding game. Whether Embiid plays tonight or not, the Sixers won’t be accustomed to as many possessions as they’re used to. And James Harden won’t be at his best offensively after chasing around Kyrie Irving all night. Harden has scored UNDER 27 points in four of his last five games.
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 29 Points + Rebounds + Assists:
The All-Star has led the Pacers to wins in three of their last four games. He’s obviously having the best season of his career, and tonight he’ll be facing a Spurs team that is last in defense and 6th in pace. There will be plenty of extra possessions to go around. Especially since the Pacers play at the 9th fastest pace in the league. However, the reason I’m keeping this PRA line as low as 29 is because there is substantial blowout risk in this game. Haliburton has hit OVER 29 PRA in four of his last six games, so this feels pretty safe. Haliburton has upside to 40+ PRA, so that’s as high as I would go if you wanted better odds to hit.
Russell Westbrook OVER 13 Points:
Put your personal feelings about Russ’ game aside. Whatever they may be. He can be incredibly polarizing, so let’s deal in facts. Since signing with the Clippers, LAC has lost all of their games, but it certainly has not been because of Russ. He’s shooting over 50% from the field, over 50% from three, 100% from the free throw line, and averaging over 9 assists per game. He also hasn’t scored fewer than 14 points in any of his three games. Tonight the Clippers take on the Warriors, who have a middling 18th ranked defense, and also play at the fastest pace in the league. Russell Westbrook thrives in pace, even though the Clippers run a half-court offense primarily. There are going to be plenty of opportunities for Russ to get transition buckets and score in the half court. Russ hitting this OVER seems like a layup to me. I might even feel comfortable going as high as 19+ points.