With the Super Bowl comes the official end of another season of football, and for us sickos, six months is far too long to wait for NFL action to return. However, there’s nothing to stop us from looking ahead toward the 2024 fantasy football season. A lot will certainly change between February and August, but barring injury, most of the top-12 players listed below in my way too early 2024 fantasy football rankings should remain first-round fantasy draft picks even six months from now. As Bill Belichick would say, “we’re on to 2024”.
2024 Fantasy Football Rankings: Way Too Early Top-12
1.01 – Breece Hall – RB, Jets
Would you believe that Breece Hall was a top-three running back in PPR scoring from Weeks 8 to 17 following the Jets’ bye? He also led all running backs in evaded tackles, receptions, and receiving yards in 2023 and ranked sixth in yards after contact per rush attempt (YAC/Att). Oh, and did I mention that Hall did all this in his first season back from a torn ACL and on a Jets offense that ranked 29th in offensive points per game (PPG)? Assuming that Aaron Rodgers will return healthy in 2024 and lead a more potent Jets offense, Hall is poised for a monumental fantasy breakout two years removed from the ACL tear. Many fantasy GMs want to “see it” before taking a player at 1.01, but projecting future success is how savvy fantasy GMs find value from inefficient ADPs.
1.02 – Justin Jefferson – WR, Vikings
Prior to his hamstring injury in Week 5, Justin Jefferson was the top-scoring PPR wide receiver over the first four weeks of the season. The biggest question looming for the Vikings and Jefferson’s fantasy prospects next year is who will be under center. The best-case scenario for Jefferson’s fantasy value would be for Minnesota to extend Kirk Cousins, and this 1.02 ranking assumes that outcome. Even if the Vikings were to head into Week 1 with a question mark at quarterback, Jefferson would drop a few spots but still be a first-round pick in 2024 fantasy football rankings.
1.03 – Ja’Marr Chase – WR, Bengals
In three games with a fully healthy Joe Burrow coming out of their bye from Weeks 8 to 10, Ja’Marr Chase was the No. 4 wide receiver in PPR scoring. Although it was a disastrous year for the Bengals overall, there should be no concerns about Chase’s ability to produce elite fantasy numbers with a healthy Burrow in 2024.
While there could be some changes to Cincinnati’s offense following Brian Callahan’s departure for Tennessee, Chase’s production shouldn’t be affected. New offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher was the quarterbacks coach under Callahan and figures to retain many of the same concepts, and either way, Chase projects to remain a focal point of the Bengals’ offense regardless of coaching changes.
1.04 – Christian McCaffrey – RB, 49ers
There’s nothing wrong with drafting Christian McCaffrey at 1.01 in 2024. After all, he was a model of consistency this past season with 12 weekly finishes as a top-12 fantasy running back and zero weeks of less than 10 PPR points. But while McCaffrey continues to project as an elite RB1 in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme in San Francisco, it’d be remiss not to take into account the fact that he will be 28 years old in 2024. Austin Ekeler all but disappeared in his age-28 season this past year, and though McCaffrey could certainly be the exception to the rule, 28 is typically the age when running backs begin to decline in production.
1.05 – CeeDee Lamb – WR, Cowboys
There’s an argument for CeeDee Lamb to be drafted even earlier in 2024 considering the fact that he finished the 2023 season as the No. 1 overall PPR wide receiver and No. 2 in PPR PPG. Plus, he did so even with Dallas not having had to pass much in the first half of the year due to their dominant defense. But once the Cowboys started throwing the ball more, Lamb was clearly Dak Prescott‘s go-to guy with a 30-percent team target rate, which ranked fourth among wide receivers. With Prescott and Mike McCarthy’s jobs on the line after yet another disappointing early playoff exit, expect them to continue relying heavily on Lamb in a pivotal 2024 season.
1.06 – Tyreek Hill – WR, Dolphins
What’s there to say about Tyreek Hill? He’s arguably the most dynamic wide receiver in the league right now, and Mike McDaniel’s scheme in Miami runs through their No. 1 wide receiver. Hill led all wide receivers in team target rate with 34 percent in 2023, and he had nine weekly top-12 wide receiver finishes in 12 fully healthy games last year.
The only concerns are durability and age. Hill’s volume gives him an incredibly high weekly floor and ceiling, but it also exposes him to a lot of tackles and hits, which clearly wore on him over the second half of last season. He’ll also be 30 years old in March and could start to slow down a bit. Still, with his speed, versatility, and projected target volume, it wouldn’t be that crazy to take Hill as early as 1.01.
1.07 – Puka Nacua – WR, Rams
Like Hill, Puka Nacua is tied to an elite play-caller in Sean McVay, which in part helped him break both the rookie record for receptions as well as for receiving yards. Beyond that, the underlying metrics bode well for Puka’s continued success. He finished as the No. 7 wide receiver in PPR PPG in his rookie year even though he scored just six touchdowns, so his scoring rate should regress to the mean next season with potential for double-digit touchdowns. On top of that, Puka’s yardage was buoyed by not only volume but also efficiency, as he ranked sixth in yards per route run (YPRR) and ninth in yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R). With Cooper Kupp turning 31 years old in June, Puka should cement himself as the 1A in Los Angeles in 2024.
1.08 – Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR, Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the final player in the top-eight overall with a legitimate argument to be drafted as high as 1.01 overall. After a breakout campaign as the No. 9 wide receiver in PPR PPG as a sophomore in 2022, St. Brown followed that up with an elite No. 4 wide receiver finish in 2023. Even with the addition of Sam LaPorta to an already-potent Lions passing attack, St. Brown remained Jared Goff‘s top target, ranking fourth among all wide receivers in team target share with 30 percent. He’s locked in as a clear top-10 pick in my 2024 fantasy football rankings and is among the safest first-round options, as St. Brown failed to finish as a top-24 fantasy wide receiver in just two of 15 games last year.
1.09 – Kyren Williams – RB, Rams
The late-first round in 2024 presents a few risk-reward options. Kyren Williams leads this tier after a strong 2023 season in which he finished as the No. 2 running back in PPR PPG behind only McCaffrey. They were the only two running backs who managed to average over 20 PPR PPG, and Williams had nine top-12 fantasy running back finishes in his 12 healthy games last year. The only looming concern is his durability, or lack thereof.
While Williams has been dynamic on the field as both a runner and receiver, he’s also already missed a lot of games in his young career thus far. He suffered a broken foot in training camp as a rookie, and a season-ending high ankle sprain in that same year cost him seven games. And though Williams had a strong sophomore campaign overall in 2023, he still missed five games with another high ankle sprain. That said, McVay clearly felt comfortable enough with Williams as his clear-cut starter going forward to jettison Cam Akers to Minnesota mid-season. Just be sure to handcuff Williams in the late rounds.
1.10 – Bijan Robinson – RB, Falcons
It’s fitting that Bijan Robinson is in the same tier as Kyren Williams heading into next year given that Bijan’s new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, was an integral part of Williams’s fantasy success in 2023. Robinson has coached for the Rams since 2019 and has served as the quarterbacks coach there for the past two seasons. Of course, who will be under center in Atlanta Week 1 remains a question mark for now, but the departure of Arthur Smith was cause for celebration among most fantasy GMs. Bijan showed flashes of his game-breaking talent as a rookie, and hopefully the new coaching staff will utilize him more as a focal point of the offense. It’s possible that we could be talking about Bijan as the consensus 1.01 for 2025 drafts a year from now.
1.11 – A.J. Brown – WR, Eagles
A.J. Brown cooled off over the second half of the 2023 season along with the rest of the Eagles’ offense. Still, he finished as the No. 6 wide receiver in PPR PPG on the year even if he only had one weekly finish as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver from Week 11 onward. Many fantasy managers will surely remember the disappointing games late last year, but Brown was still productive down the stretch, albeit not dominant. Plus, with the hiring of Kellen Moore as the new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, there’s hope for the 2024 Eagles offense to more closely resemble their early 2023 form rather than their late 2023 form. Keenan Allen also thrived with plenty of target volume in Moore’s offense, and though the Chargers fell apart after Justin Herbert‘s broken finger in Week 14, they were tied for 11th in offensive PPG with the Chiefs up to that point.
1.12 – Garrett Wilson – WR, Jets
See Hall, Breece above (I’m clearly high on a resurgent Jets offense in 2024 with Rodgers at the helm). Whatever off-field controversies might surround Rodgers, he’s unquestionably a top-10 quarterback on the field, which should upgrade all the Jets’ skill-position players heading into next season.
It’s quite honestly nothing short of amazing that Garrett Wilson has managed back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career with an amalgam of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle under center. With a healthy Rodgers next season, Wilson should maintain his high target volume while seeing a leap in efficiency, particularly on downfield targets. As with Hall, pulling the trigger on Wilson will require a small leap of faith, but buying in early on breakout seasons are how fantasy football titles are won.
Honorable Mentions
Jahmyr Gibbs – RB, Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs was electric as a rookie, ranking second among all running backs in breakaway run rate. The only concern keeping Gibbs outside of the first round in 2024 fantasy football rankings is the split backfield with David Montgomery, who projects to continue vulturing some touchdowns and touches on high-value passing downs.
De’Von Achane – RB, Dolphins
Even if the Dolphins re-sign Raheem Mostert or add another running back, De’Von Achane demonstrated big-play ability on limited touches. In fact, it’s probably best for health and longevity that he remain a complementary back.
With his speed in McDaniel’s dynamic offensive scheme, Achane led the league in YAC/Att even as a rookie, and he projects to be a boom/bust RB1 next year with week-winning ceiling.
Mark Andrews – TE, Ravens
In his 10 fully healthy games in 2023 from Weeks 2 to 10, Mark Andrews was the No. 3 tight end in PPR PPG and finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end in six of those nine weeks. And even for all the hype and elite production that Sam LaPorta generated as a rookie down the stretch in 2023, his 14.4 PPR PPG wasn’t as good as Andrews’s 14.6 PPR PPG in those 10 healthy games. With Travis Kelce nearing the end of his career in his age-35 season next year and T.J. Hockenson‘s health in question to start the 2024 season after a late-season ACL/MCL tear, Andrews is still the No. 1 fantasy tight end in my early 2024 fantasy football rankings.
Sam LaPorta – TE, Lions
Calm down. LaPorta isn’t far behind Andrews in the rankings. In fact, LaPorta rightfully belongs in the same tier considering his youth and projected development track after 10 weekly finishes as a top-12 fantasy tight end as a rookie. Already a trusted red-zone target for Goff and the No. 2 target behind St. Brown in Detroit, LaPorta should be an elite fantasy tight end for the foreseeable future with a high weekly floor and ceiling considering his projected target volume. He and Andrews both belong in the early second round of 2024 fantasy football rankings, and it wouldn’t be crazy to draft them back-to-back at the Round 1-2 turn in TE premium scoring formats.
For more fantasy football and NFL content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng.