One of the most fun parts of draft season is digging through the player pool to find the hidden gems. Discovering off-the-radar players who can offer way more value than their asking price. We, of course, call these high-upside players sleepers. And it’s the sleepers that often take our rosters to the next level. In this article, I’ll focus on third base sleepers, specifically. All three names are outside the top 300 average draft position on NFBC for the last 30 days. All three have the potential to provide top-100 results. If they don’t hit on that potential, you can just drop them and move on to whoever is popular on the waiver wire. But if they do, that is sure some great value at no cost. I guess that’s what makes sleepers so much fun.
Before getting to the list, I also wanted to note that I considered adding Noelvi Marte (3B Reds). Although I was very impressed with his 35 MLB games last season (.316/.366/.456 with six steals), and the underlying stats that supported the results, I think his ADP of 163 is pretty right on. I end up drafting him a lot these days in mocks. So while I think he’s a solid pick, I didn’t think it would be appropriate to include him among third base sleepers.
Third Base Sleepers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Jordan Westburg 2B/3B Orioles ADP 336
2023: 68 G, 26 R, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 4 SB, .260 AVG
As a former 1st-round pick of the Baltimore Orioles in 2020, there was a lot of hype surrounding Jordan Westburg’s call-up at the end of June last year. The hype wasn’t just about pedigree, though. The 24-year-old was beating down the door at Triple-A with 18 home runs, 54 RBI, and a .939 OPS after just 67 games. The slash line was pretty impressive too (.295/.372/.567).
But all that changed with the tepid Major League results that would follow. The rookie would go on to hit just three home runs during his 208 big-league at-bats covering 68 contests. Even worse, he was being left out of the starting lineup multiple times per week by the end of the season.
The final slash line, however, wasn’t horrible (.260/.311/.404). And more importantly, the underlying stats tell us the raw ability still exists. His average exit velocity of 90.2 miles per hour and his hard-hit rate of 44.5%, would have ranked well above average if his sample size had qualified. The righty also grades out as 88th percentile in speed. Could he improve on his four stolen bases? It sure looks that way if he desired.
In any case, the hype is all but dissolved. The soon-to-be 25-year-old’s ADP is outside standard drafts. This despite a presumed starting job at second base heading into Spring Training, dual eligibility, and plenty of room to grow in his sophomore season. Could he get closer to his 11.2% career walk rate in the minors? And then perhaps find his home run stroke while he’s at it? With the last pick in your draft as a Utility/CI/MI bat, it seems completely worth taking a chance.
Colt Keith 2B/3B Tigers ADP 393
2023 (AA/AAA): 126 G, 88 R, 27 HR, 101 RBI, 3 SB, .306 AVG
There was already some sleeper appeal for Colt Keith coming into this offseason. He’s a 22-year-old bat-first infield prospect who is coming off his best minor league season. He displayed some nice pop with 27 home runs, 101 RBI, and a very impressive .306/.380/.552 slash line over 126 games at two levels.
But then this week the Detroit Tigers signed their top prospect (3rd in their organization and 38th overall according to Fangraphs) to a 6-year, $28 Million contract that includes team options for up to nine years. Locking him up in this way all but assures that the young left-handed hitter will be on the Opening Day roster. In fact, the President of Baseball Operations for the Tigers, Scott Harris, basically said as much in Keith’s press conference. They expect he’ll “earn” the starting second base job out of camp.
Harris also said they, “Don’t just give out these deals to every talented player who comes through.” This means the team that knows him best is betting on his talent to translate to the Majors. That’s nice to hear as a fantasy baseball manager.
OK, I know he’ll be playing half his games in Comerica Park. It grades out as the worst venue for home-run hitters according to Park Factors. And fine, his average exit velocity last season (89 MPH) would be pedestrian at the highest level. But as an extra-base-hit machine (68 total in 2023), with some good discipline skills (10.4 walk rate), with dual eligibility, with a job that’s his to lose, with an up-and-coming lineup, and with an ADP that leaves him out of even deep-league drafts? Seems like a perfect, no-brainer speculative pick. If it’s a points league, can’t find many better third base sleepers.
Michael Busch 3B Cubs ADP 402
2023: 27 G, 9 R, 2HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, .167
Imagine yourself on draft day. You’re on the clock for your last pick in a 12-team league. Better yet, make it a 15-team league. The time is ticking. You need one more hitter. 3B, 1B, CI, UTIL… something like that. Now imagine I tell you there’s a former 1st-round pick from 2019 available. Over four seasons in the minors, he slashed .283/.390/.529 with a .919 OPS. Last year was the best of the bunch. He hit 29 home runs and drove in 97 in 125 games combined in Triple-A and his first 27 games in the Majors. Pretty good, right?
Now I’ll add that the only reason he wasn’t called up sooner was due to his organization having a ridiculous talent overload. And that, just last month, he’s been traded from that organization to a team that has already stated he’ll be a regular in the lineup. This player has eligibility at 3B already and will likely gain 1B in short order.
Oh yeah, and he’s still currently ranked 51st on MLB Pipeline. He averaged 91.3 miles per hour exit velocity in the minors last season. And in his limited 81 plate appearances at the top level, despite bad overall numbers, had a 50% hard-hit rate which, if qualified, would put him in the 92nd percentile.
We’re talking about Michael Busch, of course. The name is right at the top there. But the point is: people are sleeping on him based on his age (26 is old for a prospect), and his first 72 at-bats. If he was two years younger and hadn’t debuted yet, he’d probably be right up there with Jackson Chourio (ADP 141), almost 200 picks earlier! And he didn’t dominate nearly the way Busch did. It could be one of the best bargains of this year’s draft and is definitely my favorite among third base sleepers. Maybe don’t even wait for the last round, especially in points leagues with his high walk rate.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.