Young, athletic, cerebral forwards with shooting potential are the wet dream of both fantasy owners and general managers. Look through histories greatest. LeBron, Julius Erving, Charles Barkley, Larry Bird, to name a few. Today’s game only benefits more from having them on your squad, as the offensive engine. Scottie Barnes is a point forward with the ability to read and react. Paolo Banchero is athletic, with the ability to finish with fluidity. Both would be great additions given their teams situations, but often teams will have to pick one over another. Perfecting this pick, while assessing their potential will be pivotal for a playoff push (and not just for fantasy owners). Selecting these two to compare is both complicated and simple. It is easy to want to compare two, under 23 top 5 pick forwards looking to take their teams to the playoffs.
Player Comparison Series: Scottie Barnes vs. Paolo Banchero
Points: Paolo Banchero
As a rookie, Banchero achieved a goal few rookies do: 20 Points Per Game. Scottie Barnes can score, but he has not been able to reach those levels of production in two seasons. Even this year with more responsibility, and most likely more usage, there will not be much of a chance at 20. Banchero is the clear-cut option to score, especially with the overall investment from the Orlando Magic in his scoring over his playmaking. This should not be pondered too much.
Rebounds: Paolo Banchero
Given that Scottie Barnes is going to be playing a lot more on-ball than he was before, this may be an easier choice than it was before. Barnes has been no slouch on the boards, he had nearly the same rebounding rate as Banchero averaged over the last two seasons. The problem lies in the way each player is going to be used. Banchero will be a traditional forward, gathering up boards on shot attempts, and cleaning up on drives. Barnes will play more point guard, initiating offense and driving to the basket. Granted, it is not certain that Barnes will average fewer rebounds. Plenty of point forwards have been good at accumulating boards by getting in good position or finishing their own play. That being said, Barnes did average fewer rebounds last year than in his rookie year, after his usage and assist rate rose. Stick with the traditional forward.
Assists: Scottie Barnes
A lot of these comparisons are easy relative to other side-by-sides. Scottie Barnes has been shifting towards point forward over the last two seasons and will spend a lot of time making a passing read over Banchero. He will be relied on in that aspect, and Toronto is hoping they will be better for it. It is unfortunate he is not the best passing forward in the 2021 draft, but certainly makes the right play more than most in that category. Barnes will have a healthy Raptors team, with plenty of options. Count on him to increase his overall assist rate, which will most likely be two to three assists more than Banchero on a nightly basis.
Stocks: Scottie Barnes
Paolo Banchero could be a better defender. He is athletic and smart. Scottie Barnes just happens to have more active hands. He typically comes away with more steals per game and more blocks per game. Barnes most likely will see fewer blocks per game given “positional change”, but has always been an active and athletic defender. Much like assists, there is not going to be much nuance to this take, given the data.
FG%: Even
Neither one of these forwards are particularly good shooters at the moment. Neither is going to be a particularly good shooter this year. Their effective and true shooting percentages are very similar, as is their ability to shoot from beyond the arc. The nuance to this is Banchero may develop into a better shooter as the years go by, given his ability to shoot from 10-16 feet, but it should not happen overnight. Good luck with either of these two being particularly efficient scorers, they would not be my first pick in a list of forwards.
3PR: Undetermined, but possibly Paolo
Paolo Banchero has never been an average three-point shooter in the two years he has spent between college and the pros. He does get plenty of shot attempts, and his overall basketball feel may (and I stress MAY) provide results. At the current moment, Barnes is not a shooter either. The galaxy-brained option would be Barnes, because he will not be taking up attempts in overall three-point shooting-based leagues, and should not harm much in the long run. Paolo, if he does not shoot league-average, would do more harm than good in this context. Tread lightly.
FTR: Scottie Barnes
There is an art to determining the better option among two mediocre shooters. Free throws is a stat that should be taken with less gambler-mentality than a three-point rate. Scottie Barnes takes fewer free throws than Paolo, with better success. Given his overall change in role often discussed in this comparison, the likelihood that Barnes takes more shots at the line this year than the last two raises considering the on-ball potential.
Overall: Slightly Scottie Barnes
Genuinely, picking between the two players is fun. It is thoroughly enjoyable to watch Scottie Barnes and Paolo Banchero navigate the NBA. These former Rookies of the Year will be tasked with taking their teams back to the playoffs, and those with League Pass should give them some watches over the course of the season. Taking either one of them is not the wrong choice. They offer very distinct sets of skills and can benefit your fantasy team. Scottie Barnes provides better options with more valuable categories, without a drastic drop off in any category other than points. This is not a slight to Paolo Banchero. He is one more season away from this being a clean Banchero sweep, but that matters less when leagues are done on a year-to-year basis. If this were a dynasty league, Banchero would be the clear-cut option.
Got a beef with Aaron’s take on these two players? Let him hear about it in the comments below! In the meantime check out all the great analysis in our 2023 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!