Welcome to the Week 6 edition of my NFL Player Props column! There seems to be plenty to choose from this week. Only two teams are on a bye, and some recent injuries have opened the door for other players to excel. Of course, the cat-and-mouse game between us and the sportsbooks continues. They have yet to release a couple of props that I have my eye on. But that does not mean I like the props below any less. Here are my three favorite Week 6 NFL Player Props. As you know, these can move in a hurry, so please do your due diligence before locking anything in. Make sure you have all of the latest info and are getting the best price possible. Now that all of that is out of the way, let’s get to the props!
Week 6 NFL Player Props
Raheem Mostert Long Rush OVER 16.5 Yards (-125, Barstool, DraftKings, MGM)
It may seem strange to say that a running back who ranks in the top 15 in the NFL in rushing yards was beginning to lose a grip on his role. But that was exactly what was happening with Raheem Mostert because of the emergence of rookie phenom De’Von Achane. Unfortunately, Achane suffered a knee injury last week and will miss at least the next four games. That means Mostert should be in the driver’s seat on Sunday when it comes to the Dolphins’ backfield. Mostert should thrive in what is arguably the most lopsided matchup of the week. Not only is Miami a double-digit favorite, but this matchup pits the NFL’s top-ranked rushing offense against the team with the worst run defense DVOA in the league. Mostert should have a field day, but I do prefer his long rush prop over his others for a couple of reasons.
Mostert has cleared this number in three of his last four games, including all three in which he saw at least 10 carries. Carolina has routinely allowed opposing running backs to surpass this number. Six different running backs (not including Taysom Hill) have recorded a run of at least 17 yards versus Carolina this season. The only starting running back who failed to hit this number against the Panthers was Tony Jones, who was subsequently released. I prefer the long rush prop for Mostert because this game may get out of hand. Miami is a juggernaut, while Carolina is the NFL’s only winless club. We could see a scenario where Mostert does not play all four quarters. That makes me a bit skeptical about taking his total yardage props. However, he only needs to pop one big run for us to cash this player prop.
Puka Nacua OVER 5.5 Receptions (+100, DraftKings, MGM)
The Arizona Cardinals have been carved up by opposing quarterbacks in their last two games. First, it was Brock Purdy, who threw just one incompletion against the Cardinals two weeks ago. Then last week, Joe Burrow posted season-highs across the board statistically in Cincinnati’s 14-point victory. This week, it will be Matthew Stafford’s turn. I am not opposed to anyone who wants to target Stafford or even Cooper Kupp in this matchup. But I am going to roll with Puka Nacua. Nacua didn’t seem to miss a beat with Kupp returning to the lineup last week. Nacua caught 7-of-11 targets, accounting for 71 yards and a score. I expect him to have a similar performance in Week 6 against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals have struggled to disrupt passes intended for opposing wideouts so far this season. Arizona has allowed completions on 74.5 percent of throws to opposing wide receivers. Stafford has found Nacua on 73 percent of his targets through five games. As long as the targets are there, the receptions should follow. Cincinnati’s top three receivers accounted for 29 receptions last week, with each recording at least six grabs. Based on their success through the air and the Rams’ offensive tendencies, I believe Los Angeles will employ a similar approach this week. With Kupp back in the fold, the Rams ran just 14 times versus 41 pass plays. Even if the split is not that pronounced on Sunday afternoon, Nacua should get enough opportunities in this game. I am taking Nacua to record at least six catches against Arizona in Week 6.
Tony Pollard OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Caesars, DraftKings)
My last Week 6 NFL player prop is for Monday Night Football. The Dallas Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers. In the process of that defeat, they ran the ball a season-low 19 times. Dallas had attempted at least 30 rushes in their four previous games. I expect them to get back to running the football on Monday night against the Los Angeles Chargers. That should mean plenty of Tony Pollard. Pollard has accounted for 51.9 percent of the Cowboys’ carries so far this year. Pollard’s history shows us that he usually produces whenever he logs at least a dozen carries. Since the beginning of last season, Pollard has rushed for at least 70 yards in 11 of 12 games in which he has carried the ball at least 12 times.
I also like the matchup itself. The Chargers have done a decent job of limiting running back production thus far. Los Angeles allows an average of 4.16 yards per carry to opposing running backs. However, there is plenty to be desired when it comes to the Chargers’ run defense. They allow 1.92 yards per carry before contact. That is the highest number in the NFL. To that end, their front seven struggles mightily against the run, particularly up the middle. The Chargers have rotated five defensive linemen along the interior throughout their first four games. Below are their run grades this season, per Pro Football Focus. Keep in mind that anything under 60 is considered below average.
Sebastian Joseph-Day: 56.3
Morgan Fox: 47.3
Nick Williams: 42.2
Scott Matlock: 37.6
Austin Johnson: 31.6
It gets a little better at the second level, but not much. Here is how their inside linebackers grade out against the run:
Nick Niemann: 63.7
Eric Kendricks: 54.1
Kenneth Murray Jr.: 40.7
In addition to the mismatches up front, especially up the middle, there is yet another reason I like Pollard to go over his total rushing yards on Monday night. In addition to the extra day’s rest before the game, Dallas has a Week 7 bye. Above, I mentioned Pollard’s prowess when getting at least 12 carries. Based on the matchup and circumstances, it would be borderline criminal if he only ran the ball 12 times. I would not be surprised to see Pollard carry the ball 20 times on Monday night. In addition to Pollard’s total rushing yards prop, I would also consider laddering his rushing yards. I am also interested in his total scrimmage yards prop, though I have not yet seen any sportsbooks post those figures. Give me all of the Tony Pollard in this game.
Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty