To a degree, this is going to be an ever-evolving endeavor throughout the week. As you prepare for Sunday Night Football, there will always be specific plays you like and wish to target. NFL player props will stand out to you, and at the moment, you should capitalize on them. As news changes throughout the week, these markets will move as well, so lock in your player prop picks as you see them.
Each week, I will take a look at four NFL player prop targets on DraftKings for Sunday Night Football and provide some commentary about them. Please be aware though, that these are subject to market movements.
NFL Player Props
Tony Pollard, Anytime Touchdown at -115
It has been an interesting season for Tony Pollard. After finding the end zone twice in Week 1, Pollard has yet to be back this year despite being the lead back in Dallas’ backfield.
From a game flow perspective, Dallas has had some interesting weeks. Pollard has been up to the task with both volume and production, so that is not an issue. With games of 25 and 23 carries this season, the Cowboys have shown no issues leaning heavily on him when the situation calls for it. The thought process with our player props for tonight is that we will see that scenario against San Francisco.
In facing a strong offense, it is important for the Cowboys to control the tempo. It is expected to be close, so that should keep the running game in play. Statistically, the 49ers have done well against opposing running backs, but game flow cannot be ignored here. With San Francisco getting out to such big leagues, it takes that aspect of the game off the table. Dallas should provide some solid competition, and that means leaning on Pollard. Reaching the end zone will be one direct result of that.
One strategy could be pairing a Pollard touchdown with the over on 56.5 yards (-125) which helps to increase the payout.
Christian McCaffrey, Combined Rushing/Receiving Yards over 116.5 at -115
When he is healthy, and that is currently the case, there is no doubt who the San Francisco offense flows through. That very clearly is Christian McCaffrey who is essentially matchup proof.
We are taking a bit of a leap here since the Dallas defense is especially fierce against opposing running backs, but game flow is an issue here as well. In their matchups against both the Giants and Jets, the running game was off the table pretty quickly. That certainly influences the stats, and the Cowboys have not seen anyone quite like McCaffrey. In fairness though, when healthy, he truly is a unicorn.
McCaffrey has broken the century mark in three of four games to this point in another strong season. What stands out even more though, is that McCaffrey has beaten these player props in every game so far this season. With 12 receptions over the last two weeks, he very clearly is a part of the 49ers’ passing attack.
In combining the rushing and receiving yards together, we increase our odds slightly while also picking up both aspects of game flow.
Brock Purdy, Over .5 Interceptions at +124
Here we go. It is always attractive when we can secure plus odds on market, and Brock Purdy allows us to do just that here.
Through four games this season, Purdy has yet to throw an interception. That makes an interesting combination as the Cowboys have seven interceptions so far this season. We know that it is going to be a tough matchup, and Dallas’ defense will work to ensure that is the case.
Last year, Purdy threw just four interceptions in nine games so it is clear that understands how to be careful with the ball. All it takes is one, and Dallas does have the defense to make it happen.
Micah Parsons, Over .75 Sacks at -125
Before going dormant in Week 4, Micah Parsons had at least one sack in each of the first three games of the season. If it is a close game, Purdy will be dropping back to pass a good amount, but regardless, Parsons will have plenty of opportunities to get after the quarterback.
After seasons of 13 and 13.5 sacks, we are working with one of the best pass rushers in the game. Expecting a full sack of Parsons, at a minimum, should be very attainable. This matchup should go right through the fourth quarter which will benefit the Dallas pass rush, and in turn, Parsons.
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