The NFL season has hit Week 5. The start of the bye weeks are here. Last week I had some players I was surprised I was playing myself. This week I am plugging in some really chalky guys. One player I thought would be chalkier than he apparently is, is De’von Achane. Achane averages over 10 yards per touch and has a touchdown on 17% of those touches. He also is going against the Giants and their defense that gives up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. It looks like he will only have about 10% rostered in both FanDuel and DraftKings. So, I am plugging him in everywhere. You know like I should have done last week (I used his write up as my intro). We are back at it here in Week 5.
Let’s go and dive into Money Makers and Heart Breakers for who to pick or avoid for the Week 4 NFL DFS Main Slate.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
Week 5 NFL DFS Main Slate Picks
💰 Money Makers
- Patrick Mahomes – Everyone should want Mahomes a little more in Week 5. The Chiefs will bring their passing game to Minnesota and play the Vikings. The Vikings give up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. This game also has the highest over/under on the slate of 53 points. They would seem even more friendly to passing games if Bryce Young didn’t bring all the averages for yards and touchdowns down with his meh performance in Week 4. Outside of that Week 4 performance, every other quarterback has had multiple touchdowns against the Vikings. A great week for Mahomes is coming in Week 5.
$8,200 on DraftKings
$9,200 on FanDuel
- Matthew Stafford – Stafford has passed for over 300 yards in 3 out of 4 games this season. He only has 3 passing touchdowns this season. That is one in each of the past three games. The Rams play the Eagles in Week 5. The Eagles give up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Quarterbacks average 276 yards and 2 touchdowns per game against the Eagles. The Rams will have to throw to stay in this game. Looks like another 300-yard game for Stafford.
$5,600 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel
- Zach Wilson – This is more about the Broncos defense than Zach Wilson. The Broncos defense is the worst against the quarterbacks. Quarterbacks average 302 yards and 3 touchdowns passing against the Broncos. Wilson is coming off a 245-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Chiefs in Week 4. He should produce in Week 5 as a nice tournament play. This would be the Week to play him.
$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,700 on FanDuel
Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 5
- Danny Jones
$5,800 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel
- Ryan Tannehill
$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,300 on FanDuel
- Lamar Jackson
$7,800 on DraftKings
$8,400 on FanDuel
- David Montgomery – Five different running backs have had double-digit fantasy days against the Panthers. Mongomery has scored double digits in every game he has played. He also has a touchdown in every game this season. Montgomery will be looking to be the first running back to run for over 100 yards against the defense that gives up the fourth most fantasy points to the running back position. He is in must-play territory here.
$6,600 on DraftKings
$8,500 on FanDuel
- Joe Mixon – The Bengals have struggled this season. Mixon has been just OK at best. In Week 5 Mixon gets to play a team that has given up double-digit fantasy points to 5 different running backs over the first four games of the season. Running backs average 104 yards and a touchdown rushing against the Cardinals. They also average 6 receptions for 42 yards. If Mixon is going to have a big game this is it.
$6,400 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
- Breece Hall – You recently read here that the Broncos are bad against quarterbacks they are even worse against running backs. The Broncos are literally the worst defense at defending the run. Running backs average 153 yards and 2 touchdowns rushing and another 6 receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown receiving against the Broncos. 4 different running backs have scored over 20 fantasy points against the Broncos. The Jets should be flying in this game.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,500 on FanDuel
Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 5
- Bijan Robinson
$7,700 on DraftKings
$8,200 on FanDuel
- Saquon Barkley
$8,100 on DraftKings
$8,800 on FanDuel
- De’von Achane
$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel
- Puka Nacua – We have only played 4 games so far this season. In that 4-game stretch, 8 different wide receivers scored double digits fantasy days against the Eagles. Washington and Minnesota each had three players on their team do it. Puca has 32% target share and 33% air yards share of the Rams passing game. Puca will have double-digit targets as he averages 13 per game. You can chalk up another 100 yards and possibly a touchdown in Week 5 for Puca. Nakua really is a passing craze.
$7,700 on DraftKings
$8,000 on FanDuel
- Zay Flowers – Zay Flowers leads the Ravens in targets with 29, which is a 28% target share. He has sticky hands catching 82% of those for 24 receptions. He has 244 yards on the season. What he doesn’t have yet is a touchdown. The Steelers and their horrible defense against wide receivers is up next. They are in the bottom 3 against wide receivers. This is the breakout game you were waiting for, 8 receptions 90 yards, and a touchdown are clearly possible this week.
$5,500 on DraftKings
$5,900 on FanDuel
- Garrett Wilson – The Broncos defense is so bad it is also bad against wide receivers. The Broncos give up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. In mostly tough matchups to start the season Wilson has scored double-digit fantasy points in 3 out of 4 games. Wilson averages 9 targets per game. He has a 32% target share and 41% of the air yards for the Jets. Five different wide receivers have scored 13 or more fantasy points against the Broncos this season. Wilson will easily bring that total to six.
$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,400 on FanDuel
Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 5
- Michael Pittman
$6,400 on DraftKings
$6,600 on FanDuel
- Amon Ra St. Brown
$7,800 on DraftKings
$7,700 on FanDuel
- Chris Olave
$6,900 on DraftKings
$7,100 on FanDuel
- Tyler Higbee – The Eagles give up the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Higbee is third on the Rams in targets after Nacua and Atwell. The Rams will have to pass against the high-powered Eagles defense. The game has a 50-point over/under so it should be a high-scoring affair. Higbe is coming off an 11 target, 5 reception, 64 yards game. In Week 4 he had another 5 receptions for 71 yards. Higbee will be involved.
$4,100 on DraftKings
$5,300 on FanDuel
- Zach Ertz – The Bengals give up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. The Cardinals play the Bengals in Week 5. Ertz has 30 targets on the season which is second most in the league for a tight end trailing on TJ Hockenson. Ertz has not scored a touchdown yet but his volume alone is reason to play him. This is easily a top 10 tight end performance in Week 5.
$3,500 on DraftKings
$5,100 on FanDuel
- Tyler Conklin – The theme this week is the Broncos are bad. How bad are they? Well just like every other position tight ends do very well against the Broncos’ defense. Cole Kmet rose from the dead in Week 4 to have 9 targets, 7 receptions, 85 yards, and 2 touchdowns against this defense. Conklin is currently second in targets on the Jets. He is breathing, he will see targets, he should get catches and maybe even a touchdown in Week 5.
$3,200 on DraftKings
$4,800 on FanDuel
- Dolphins – The Giants give up the most fantasy points per week to opposing teams’ defenses. They give up an average pf 19.75 fantasy points per week. This is mostly because the Cowboys and Seahawks both blew this team up. The Dolphins meanwhile have had some rough outings. This is a week where the Dolphins can get some sacks, a fumble recovery, and an interception or 2. The Giants offensive line is that bad.
$3,700 on DraftKings
$4,900 on FanDuel
- Saints – The Saints have 9 sacks, 5 interceptions, and a fumble recovery this season. The Patriots give up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing teams defenses. The Patriots give up 2 sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery on average. It is a nice spot for the Saints to pull you 8-10 fantasy points in Week 5.
$3,000 on DraftKings
$4,000 on FanDuel
- Texans – The Texans are one of the surprise teams of the league this season. In the last two games, the Texans’ defense has scored double-digit fantasy points. The Texans have filled up that stat sheet during those two weeks with 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, a fumble recovery, a blocked kick, and a return for a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Falcons give up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses. In the past two weeks, the Falcons have given up 11 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, and a defensive touchdown. Great match-up play this week.
$3,500 on DraftKings
$3,600 on FanDuel
Kenny Pickett/Mitch Trubisky
It doesn’t matter who is playing quarterback for the Steelers this week they are an avoid. Pickett only has one game with multiple touchdowns this season. He hasn’t topped 18 points in fantasy yet/ The Steelers play the Ravens in Week 5. The Ravens give up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The combination of bad play and a bad matchup means an easy Heart Breaker call.
I actually love how Goff has been playing. I also tend to like him more at home than away. But the Lions play the Panthers in Week 5. Believe it or not the Panthers are tough against the pass. The Panthers give up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. No quarterback has scored over 16 points against the Panthers yet, I would avoid Goff in DFS for sure.
Where I have Kirk Cousins in season long, I am playing him. There could be a shootout here. The game has a high over/under. But, believe it or not, the hope of shootouts against the Chiefs hasn’t happened yet this season. Because the Chiefs give up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Chief’s defense is good. Consider this for a moment; Zach Wilson’s best game ever has been the best game anyone has played against the Chief so far this season. Wilson did not score 20 fantasy points. I might plug in Kirk on some tournament play where I have hope, I am out in cash games for sure.
Kyren Williams has been great this season. So, if any running back is going to have a good game against the Eagles it is possible that Williams will. The Eagles though give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. That means in season long I am playing Williams but in DFS I am out. The Eagles will score and the way to stay in the games against them is to pass. The Rams will pass a lot in Week 5.
The Texans offense has been really good, mostly passing the ball. The Falcons are the opponents for Week 5. The Falcons are a top 3 defense against running backs. Not a single running back has had a double-digit fantasy day against this Falcons defense. No running back has rushed for more than 80 yards. The Falcons have not given up a rushing touchdown to a running back as of yet. The situation looks bleak, tough defense against the run and an offense that has been very pass happy and successful at it. Pierce is a victim of playcalling.
One thing holds true for the Titans’ defense, they are tough to run the ball against and easy to pass against. The running back position averages 57 yards rushing and 20 yards receiving against the Titans team. This is another defense that funnels other teams to the pass. The Colts will oblige in Week 5. Factor that in with quarterback Anthony Richardson running the ball a lot you can see how this will be more of a Richardson and Michael Pittman game.
If you are playing London anywhere you must be desperate at the wide receiver position. The Falcons simply prefer to run the ball and utilize running backs as the focal point of the offense. To top that off the Falcons play the Texans in Week 5. The Texans are the second-toughest team against running backs for fantasy purposes. Just yuck, stop talking yourself into the talent, and start recognizing this is a boom-bust play with a low ceiling and a lower floor.
The Broncos have been bad but, Sutton has actually been okay this season. Sutton has not eclipsed 100 yards yet but does have 3 touchdowns on the season. In Week 5 the Broncos will play the Jets. The Jets are a top 5 team defensively against wide receivers. Might have something to do with players like that Sauce Gardiner guy. Anyway, I am out on Sutton this week, you should be too.
The Rams are actually good against wide receivers. The Rams defense is actually good at real football. They have, however, given up some big games at wide receiver this season, all to the primary wide receiver on the team. So if a wide receiver is going to produce against them it will either be Smith or AJ Brown, probably not both. I Would bet on Brown to produce and Smith to be the player that is lacking in Week 5.
I was prepared to tell you how tough the Ravens defense was, but it will be irrelevant to Pat as he is doubtful this week. Let’s say any Steelers tight end then. Don’t get cute with his backup. It isn’t happening against the Ravens defense.
I am playing Engram in season-long in a lot of places. In DFS I will not be as the Bills defense is just crazy good. Tight ends average 28 yards a game against the Bills. Tight end has been a nightmare all season. That continues in Week 5.