With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. This was an mediocre week as our picks went 2-2. Additionally, our fade target was also prudent with Houston upsetting the Bengals. The pick we were least confident in, the Baltimore Ravens was the only one that ended up on the short side. Things were looking good, but the Browns came back from a 14 point deficit in the fourth quarter. Things will also continue to be difficult with bye weeks still in effect. The Bills also came up short in a disappointing home loss to the Broncos.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 11 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 11 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It is becoming increasingly clear that we will see the 49ers deep into January. They are coming off a victory in Jacksonville that was simply too easy. The only issue is that Christian McCaffrey failed to get into the end zone which caused his touchdown streak to come to an end.
This week, the 49ers return home to face a Tampa Bay team that is average best. San Francisco is tied for third with 28 points per game while their defense continues to be a strength. With just 15.9 points allowed per game, tied for second, the 49ers take care of things on both ends of the field. At 19.8 points per game, the Buccaneers are not in the position to outscore the 49ers. Additionally, facing a defense that is allowing the second most passing yards per game, San Francisco shouldn’t have any issues moving the ball.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
At 5-5, this has not been an ideal season for the Buffalo Bills. That continued in what was a rough loss Monday night at home against a suddenly resurgent Denver Broncos. This was not a game that the Bills deserved to win, but they were one 12 men of the field penalty away from doing so.
Week 11 is ultimately a pivotal game for the Bills. Not only do they get another crack at a home victory, but they can avenge their Week 1 loss to the Jets. After firing their offensive coordinator, Buffalo’s season is at a crossroads, and facing the Jets at home could be the perfect elixir for that.
At this point, it is almost unfair to dig up all of the negative statistics out there about Zach Wilson. While he hasn’t always helped his cause, New York’s problems go a lot deeper than Wilson. At times he does make impressive throws, but it is too fleeting. The offensive line play has not done him any favors, and the Jets’ receivers are pretty thin beyond Garrett Wilson. The biggest issue for New York though is their lack of discipline and curious, at best, play calling.
There are simply too many signs pointing towards Buffalo avenging Week 1 as one of our survivor picks.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
If digging up statistics isn’t fair to Wilson, then it’s downright cruel to do the same with respect to Tommy DeVito. While the Giants’ third string quarterback didn’t win the game for New York on Sunday, he didn’t lose it for them either. At some point, the Giants just have to let DeVito throw the ball, because they aren’t going to win any games in their current state either. Opposing teams can easily stack the box to shut down Saquon Barkley, and there goes the offense.
Washington is coming off a tough loss in Seattle in which Sam Howell continued to show he can be a viable quarterback. Returning home should lead to victory for the Commanders as the Giants are simply overmatched. Over the past two games, they haven’t come close to being competitive, and there is nothing to suggest a change.
Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals
Do we have to? We didn’t grind for 10 weeks with survivor picks to hinge it all on a rookie quarterback, did we? At this point though, it really comes down to the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars based on previous picks. And after last week, it is easier to trust C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
In fact, that trust extends over the last two weeks after Stroud set multiple records for rookie quarterbacks. As an encore to that, all Stroud did was go into Cincinnati and upset the Joe Burrow led Bengals. Stroud continues to show calm and poise while producing at a high level. The rookie is up to 2,626 passing yards and 15 touchdowns in nine games while throwing just two interceptions. Devin Singletary took a step forward in the backfield last week which also helps.
The Cardinals are coming off a victory, their second of the season, led in part by the return of Kyler Murray. It was at home and things likely could have gone differently if it wasn’t the Atlanta Falcons. Taylor Heinicke failed to distinguish himself before exiting with a hamstring injury which led to Desmond Ridder returning to the field. Arizona is allowing 26.3 points per game, fifth worst, and things should be more difficult this week against Stroud. That is what we are banking on with our survivor picks this week.
Other Games for Consideration
While they are not available for our use with Line 1, there are two other games that are worth of our attention. If you have these teams available, then they are legitimate options. Their exclusion above is no indication of my confidence in their success.
- Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
- Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Games to Fade
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
There is no disputing how good the San Francisco 49ers are. But did we really expect them to go into Jacksonville and completely blow the doors off the Jaguars?
While Jacksonville does sit in first place with a record of 6-3, it’s hard to really feel confident here. Trevor Lawrence has just nine touchdown passes and the Jaguars are in the middle of the road offensively. When it gets to third down though, things are going so well for Jacksonville with a success rate of just 35.3%.
Divisional games are always interesting, and the Titans at 3-6 don’t have anything to lose. Jacksonville ranks 30th in the league with 267 passing yards per game, and Will Levis has nothing to lose. This would be the first road victory for Tennessee this season, but it’s hard to feel confident in the Jaguars.
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Miami Dolphins are coming off a much-needed bye week following a trip to Germany. The Dolphins continue to struggle against good teams this season and after falling behind 21-0, they were unable to make it all the way back.
This is an interesting matchup as the Dolphins are the better team here. Miami is 4-0 at home while the Raiders are 1-4 on the road, so that gives us an easy trend to follow, but are we getting ahead of ourselves? After the firing of Josh McDaniels, this is a very different and inspired Raiders’ team that has ripped off two straight victories. Yes, these wins did come against the two pitiful New York football teams, but they are wins nonetheless.
Oakland’s record now sits at 5-5 on the season, and playing with momentum, they are a dangerous team. Even with their early season struggles, they are also allowing 4.5 less points per game than Miami. While the odds are in the Dolphins’ favor, I’d rather not temp fate with my survivor picks.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans, Dallas, Houston
Line 2
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo
Line 3
Washington
Line 4
San Francisco
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