Adapt or Die (metaphorically speaking)
Darwin stated “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change that lives within the means available and works cooperatively against common threats”
If you have been following me for some time you may know that I have written the draft strategy called “The Adaptive Draft Strategy.” It is literally a strategy of recognizing what is happening in your draft and changing your strategy as you go to get an overall better draft. Being adaptive doesn’t end at the draft you need to constantly be adapting to things coming at you as the season progresses.
There are players that come out of nowhere to bring you fantasy production and typically people will adapt rather quickly to adding them to teams and playing those guys in DFS. But what about the preseason gods, the superstars before the games start that everyone believes have more talent playing football than is imaginable? When someone isn’t producing do you double down, because you know there is no way you could have been wrong? This is the trap most people fall into and your fantasy teams in every format will suffer. Adapt your process for who you are playing based on how the player is being used and in most cases the match-up they are in week to week. If you do not adapt, your fantasy hopes and dreams of glory will certainly die.
Week 10 is waiting on us. So, let’s get to Money Makers and Heart Breakers for the Week 10 NFL DFS Main Slate. And don’t forget, you can also use these insights as sit/start advice for your weekly lineups.
Week 10 NFL DFS Main Slate Picks
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterback
Jared Goff – The Lions will be playing the Chargers in Week 10. The Chargers defense has looked fairly good the past two weeks. Even with Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson crapping out against the Chargers defense the past 2 weeks, this defense still gives up the third most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Quarterbacks average 313 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per week against the Chargers. This game also has the highest over-under on the week with 48.5. This is a plus match for Goff and he should excel coming off the bye week, we should have scoring and fun.
$6,400 on DraftKings
$8,000 on FanDuel
Will Levis – Did you know that the Buccaneers give up the second most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks? That’s right quarterbacks average 21 fantasy points a week against the Buccaneers. The newly crowned Tennessee Titans starting quarterback gets his third start against the Buccaneers. Levis will throw the ball a lot, he has averaged 34 attempts a game in his 2 starts. The Buccaneers have given up 7 passing touchdowns in the past 2 games. This looks like a nice spot to plug the rookie in and watch him go. I am off to put some mayonnaise in my coffee.
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel
Taylor Heinicke – Heinicke is back starting for an NFL team. Taylor is fun, and he has produced in fantasy for us in the past. In his first start, he threw for 268 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. He gets a very favorable match-up in Week 20 against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are a bottom-10 team at defending the pass. This looks like 250 yards, 2 touchdown day for Heinicke and he is priced right for that in DFS.
$5,100 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 10
Geno Smith
$5,800 on DraftKings
$6,900 on FanDuel
Brock Purdy
$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,400 on FanDuel
Kyler Murray
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel
Running Backs
David Montgomery –The Lions get to play the Chargers in Week 10 as I have already mentioned. The Chargers give up the 12th most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Monty is coming back from an injury. The Lions will get him some run, most likely splitting time with Jahmyr Gibbs. I like the Lions to get Montgomery going with a touchdown in Week 10.
$6,900 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel
Tony Pollard – Tony Pollard has been letting some people down this season. So for all of you Pollard people out there I have really good news. In Week 10 the Cowboys play the Giants, who it just so happens rank sixth in giving up fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. In Week 1 Pollard had 70 yards and 2 touchdowns rushing against this same Giants defense. The Giants defense has been lit up recently by Josh Jacobs in Week 9 (98 yards 2 TDs) and Breece Hall in Week 8(93 total yards, TD). This will be a big week for Pollard.
$7,300 on DraftKings
$7,800 on FanDuel
Aaron Jones – Aaron Jones is back. Jones had 99 total yards and a touchdown in Week 9 against the Rams. In Week 10 he gets a much easier match up against the Steelers. The Steelers give up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. A running back has reached 10 or more fantasy points against the Steelers in 5 straight games. Jones will be having a great Week 10.
$6,500 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel
Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 10
Joe Mixon
$6,200 on DraftKings
$7,700 on FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
$6,000 on DraftKings
$6,600 on FanDuel
Brian Robinson
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,900 on FanDuel
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins – The Titans play the Buccaneers in Week 10. In the past two games, 3 wide receivers on each team playing the Buccaneers have scored in double-digits. That’s right 6 different wide receivers have scored 11 or more fantasy points against the Bucs in the last 2 games. Hopkins has seen 17 targets with Will Levis at the helm of the Titans. He has totaled 8 receptions for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns with those targets. Hopkins has a 29% share of the targets and a 42% share of the air yards for the Titans. There is a hop in DeAndre’s step again with Levis playing QB.
$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,100 on FanDuel
Romeo Doubs – Christian Watson may miss Week 10. The Packers play the Steelers in Week 10. Doubs leads the Packers in targets with a 21% target share. Those are 3 facts that will help you this week in deciding to play Doubs. You can pass on the Steelers and Aaron Jones helps open the passing lanes as the defense now has to actually fear the run as well. This is a nice spot Doubs to have success in Week 10.
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,300 on FanDuel
Amon-Ra St. Brown – I would bet you don’t need me to tell you to play Amon-Ra St. Brown. I am going to tell you to play him anyways. The guy has 31% target share of the Lions passing game. He is playing against a defense that gives up 13 receptions, 191 yards and a touchdown weekly to wide receivers. That is the fourth most. Put on your sunglasses and break out the suntan lotion, because the Sun God is going to shine in Week 10.
$8,300 on DraftKings
$8,600 on FanDuel
Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 10
DK Metcalf
$6,800 on DraftKings
$7,300 on FanDuel
Christian Kirk
$6,000 on DraftKings
$6,700 on FanDuel
Chris Godwin
$6,700 on DraftKings
$6,500 on FanDuel
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz – I thought Schultz was going to be the odd man out in Houston, boy was I wrong. Schultz has scored a touchdown in 4 out of the last 5 games. In Week 9 He had a 26% target share with 11 targets tied for the lead on the Texans. So Schultz is getting targets and making the most of them. To top all this off in Week 10 the Texans will play the Bengals in a game with a 48-point over-under. But that’s not all, the Bengals you see give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. In the last two weeks, Dalton Kincaid and George Kittle have scorched this Bengals team. “I see nothing, nothing,” stopping Schultz from having a good fantasy day.
$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,100 on FanDuel
Sam LaPorta – The Lions players just keep showing up in my article as Money Makers. Is the Chargers defense really that bad? Yes, it is really that bad. The Chargers give up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. LaPorta has seen double-digit targets in 2 of the last 3 games. He is heavily involved in the passing attack of the Lions as the second option. LaPorta is currently the TE4 in season-long play so he has been getting it done weekly. So, you have a consistently good player in a plus match up what to you do? Well, you play him in DFS, that’s what you do.
$5,700 on DraftKings
$6,500 on FanDuel
Taysom Hill – In the last 3 games Hill has 9 or more touches. He has done a little bit of everything in that three-game span. He has scored touchdowns in almost every way imaginable. Hill has passed for a touchdown, rushed for 3 touchdowns, and caught another 2 touchdowns over the past 3 games. The Vikings are next up for the Saints. The Vikings are a bottom-10 team against defending the pass. Hill may be involved as both a pass catcher and pass thrower in Week 10. Go get some Taysom.
$5,100 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
Other Tight Ends DFS Picks for Week 10
Trey McBride
$3,500 on DraftKings
$5,100 on FanDuel
Logan Thomas
$3,800 on DraftKings
$5,300 on FanDuel
Defense
Cowboys – The Cowboys play the Giants in Week 10. In Week 1 the Cowboys’ defense scored 37 fantasy points against the Giants. The Giants have gotten worse since then. We have the highest-scoring fantasy defense playing the team that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses. If you were ever going to pay up for a defense in DFS this is the week and situation to do it.
$4,400 on DraftKings
$5,200 on FanDuel
Seahawks – The Seahawks’ defense is one that has produced relatively well for fantasy purposes. The Seahawks average 9 fantasy points per week. Defenses average 10 fantasy points per week against the Commanders, who the Seahawks play in Week 10. The Commanders have given up the most sacks so far this season. The Seahawks can get after the quarterback, so I expect 3 or 4 sacks, and a takeaway or two.
$3,700 on DraftKings
$4,800 on FanDuel
Saints – The Saints are playing the Vikings in Week 10. The Vikings give up the 12th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses. The Saints are a good real-life defense. The Vikings are starting a quarterback who just joined their team last week in Joshua Dobbs. This looks like one of those 8-10 points games for the defense that I like. Look for 3-4 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries for the Saints in Week 10
$3,900 on DraftKings
$4,200 on FanDuel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Deshaun Watson – The Browns play the Ravens in Week 10. The Ravens are really tough on quarterbacks in fantasy. How tough are they? They give up the least amount of fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Only one quarterback has scored more than 16 fantasy points against the Ravens D. It’s elementary to sit my dear Watson.
Kenny Pickett – The Steelers are playing the Packers in Week 10. The Packers have allowed only one quarterback to score more than 20 fantasy points against them all season. They are a run-funnel defense. To top it off Kenny has not scored over 20 points all season. Its easy to pick up what I am putting down here. We may be hearing Steelers fans saying “Oh my god, they killed Kenny. Those bastards”
Baker Mayfield – The Buccaneers are playing the Titans in Week 10. The Titans are another team that defends quarterbacks well. With that said I am playing Baker Mayfield in some redraft spots. I am not playing him in DFS. I am expecting an average day from Mayfield in Week 10.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry – The Buccaneers are the second toughest defense against running backs. If any running back can have success against the Buccaneers’ defense, it is probably Henry. But between Henry splitting snaps pretty evenly with Tyjae Spears and the tough match-up, I am not plugging him into any DFS lineups this week. If you have him in season-long, you are playing him.
Austin Ekeler – In Week 10 the Chargers play the Lions. The Lions give up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Ekeler is another case of if I have him in season long, I am playing him. He will have some volume for sure, but in DFS I am not paying up for him in a really bad match-up.
Alexander Mattison – Mattison is always a volume-based play. In a good match up that can be great in a bad match up he is an easy avoid for me. In Week 10 the Vikings play the Saints. The Saints have a very good defense. Easy avoid, yuck.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase – The Bengals play the Texans in Week 10. The Texans give up the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Chase sat out practice on Wednesday because his back is bothering him. Case could go nuts against any defense if he is feeling well, he is just that good. But alas, for Week 10 I am not chasing Ja’Marr’s last week’s points in a bad matchup when he doesn’t seem 100%.
Wan’Dale Robinson – Some guy named Tommy DeVito is playing quarterback for the Giants. Darren Waller is out. The Cowboys and their top best defense is the opponent for Week 10. Do you need any other reason to avoid Robinson and all Giants pass catchers in Week 10?
Amari Cooper – We already talked about how the Ravens defend the pass well. I am out on Cooper as well as Watson in the Browns passing game for Week 10. There are places I am playing Cooper in season long as I have no choice. In DFS you have a choice. Amari will be a small version of himself in Week 10, you might call him a mini Cooper.
Tight Ends
David Njoku – As I was writing this, I thought, should I stick to the theme of avoiding all pass catchers playing against the Ravens? Njoku has touchdowns in each of the last two games. I had him as a heartbreaker last week as well and he made me look stupid. The Ravens’ defense is even better than the Cardinals against stopping tight ends. They are the best. Njoku will need another touchdown to do well in Week 10.
Luke Musgrave – You can pass on the Steelers. That is you can pass to wide receivers. The Steelers actually defend tight ends really well. In order for Luke to be called “Must start Musgrave” he needs more volume on a weekly basis. Don’t chase last week’s points with Luke.
NOTE: There are literally so many tight ends to tell you not to play I can’t even pick which other players to write about. What a mess tight end has been in 2023.
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from Fantrax, follow us on X and @MikeReedyFF for more great content
Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty