There’s just one game separating your team and the chance to compete for your league’s title. You’re going to start your studs, but there are plenty of players you may be on the fence about plugging into your lineups. Knowing who you can trust and who is likely to bust is as important as ever this weekend. That said, consider these risers, fallers, and one player I’m putting on the hot seat ahead of Week 16.
Week 16 Risers, Fallers, and Who is on The Hot Seat
Risers
Ty Chandler, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings
Upon Alexander Mattison’s Week 14 exit, Ty Chandler slid into a feature role playing 83% of the offensive snaps. Last week, as the clear-cut starter, Chandler’s 81% exemplifies that he is a riser for fantasy football. With the increase in playing time, Ty Chandler now has 41 total touches over the last two games. That includes a healthy 23 carries last week of which he turned into 132 rushing yards and a touchdown.
I don’t expect Alexander Mattison to return in Week 16. Regardless of the matchup, Ty Chandler is a must-start as the feature back in the Minnesota Vikings’ offense. If you’re fortunate to move on to the fantasy football finals, Ty Chandler can be a league-winner. He gets a huge opportunity to rack up points in Week 17 against the Green Bay Packers who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards this season.
Chuba Hubbard, Running Back, Carolina Panthers
Speaking of matching up against Green Bay, Chuba Hubbard is a riser ahead of Week 16 as he and the Panthers prepare to host the Packers. As mentioned above discussing Ty Chandler, the Packers allow the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs. Hubbard is in a smash spot for the semi-finals.
Since the firing of head coach Frank Reich, Chuba Hubbard has seen no less than 22 carries per game since Week 13. He has 74 total touches in his last three games averaging nearly 25 per game. Hubbard is the clear lead back for the Carolina Panthers that those without a true stud can believe in to win their league. He is a RB2 with top-12 upside assuming he gets into the end zone.
Chris Godwin, Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a season-high 25.5 fantasy points in Week 15, it’s difficult to imagine sitting Chris Godwin in Week 16. He’s a classic case of favoring what he’s done lately over what he’s done this season as a whole. From Weeks 1 through 15, Godwin is WR37 with just 11.9 points per game. He has 13.8 or more points in just three of 14 games this season.
However, over the last two weeks, Chris Godwin has 23 total targets. With his 41% target share, Godwin looks like he’s Baker Mayfield’s new favorite target. It took all season, but Godwin is a riser at the right time ready to take on a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing the ninth-most points to opposing wide receivers. That includes the fifth-most touchdowns to the position. You can’t sit a player with his role and recent success in this matchup.
Fallers
David Montgomery, Running Back, Detroit Lions
I’m not suggesting David Montgomery is worth benching just because he’s on my Week 16 faller list. Rather, Montgomery’s ceiling is lower heading into the semi-finals than we once thought it would be earlier in the season so we have to temper expectations. The Detroit Lions’ Week 15 win over the Denver Broncos is a good example of what I mean. Last week, Montgomery led the Lions backfield with 17 carries to rookie Jahmyr Gibbs’ 11. However, Gibbs rushed for 100 yards on six fewer carries while Montgomery managed a respectable 85.
What’s mostly concerning for Montgomery is the red zone usage. Gibbs is clearly working in more as both a runner and pass catcher when the Lions are in scoring position. In fact, on a specific drive in the second half of Week 15, Montgomery rushed four times for 32 yards only to see Gibbs get the first red zone carry and turn it into a 12-yard score.
There are still opportunities for Montgomery to get into the end zone, but if not, scoring 10 points or less, with limited passing-game usage, makes him a faller and a shakier start than he was from September through November. I’m more interested in starting the aforementioned riser Ty Chandler over Montgomery in this matchup.
George Kittle, Tight End, San Francisco 49ers
It seems silly listing any 49ers player as a faller for fantasy football. They’re the third-highest-scoring offense in the league heading into Week 16. However, with so many options on such an offense, someone is bound to fall to the wayside at some point. Unfortunately, I believe that’s George Kittle.
Given the tight end landscape, Kittle is still starting in most Week 16 lineups. Including him as a faller probably means more to those setting DFS lineups. His next two matchups are at home against the Baltimore Ravens and at the Washington Commanders. Both teams rank inside the bottom-eight in receiving yards allowed to tight ends.
Kittle has just 23 total receptions since San Francisco’s Week 9 bye. It’s worth noting, however, that he has more than three receptions in just one of six games during that stretch. I don’t expect things to get better for Kittle to round out this fantasy season, though he’s far more reliable than most tight ends out there at this point.
The Week 16 Hot Seat
Tyler Lockett, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks
The emergence of rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is making it harder and harder to start Tyler Lockett. He is on my Week 16 hot seat after averaging 9.18 points over his last five games. As a result, it shouldn’t surprise anyone Lockett’s touchdown drought dates back to Week 11. While on the Week 16 hot seat, Tyler Lockett has a really good shot of putting up points and regaining the trust of fantasy managers to end the season.
For one thing, Lockett and the playoff-hopeful Seahawks are heading to Tennessee to take on the Titans. Their defense allows the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. That includes the second-most receptions and fifth-most yards. More importantly, while Smith-Njigba is seemingly a riser, Lockett still leads all Seahawks in targets (102) this season. He has eight or more targets in six of 10 games since their early Week 5 bye. I think Lockett totals double-digit fantasy points for just the seventh time this season given the volume in a fantasy-friendly matchup.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty