Well, the worst-case scenario happened. The owners and the MLBPA could not agree on a new CBA, and the season has been delayed for at least the first two series. The two sides will still work at a deal, but there is certainly the possibility that more games could get canceled. I could go into more detail about that, but that is not the point of this article. We will dive in on some players who benefit and are hurt by a delayed season for Fantasy Baseball.
Fantasy Baseball Players Affected by a Delayed Season
Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuña Jr. is one of the most obvious beneficiaries of a delayed season. Videos have surfaced of Acuña hitting and doing agility drills, which are positive signs. I have been in the camp that Acuña would be ready for Opening Day even if it hadn’t been delayed. But, with more time to continue his rehab, he can only benefit. Mid-April puts Acuña nine months clear from surgery, which should mean he is fully ready.
Acuña’s ADP has been around nine over the last month on NFBC, but it is sure to rise with the news. At this point, I’m willing to draft Acuña as high as the third pick in drafts. I feel safe taking Trea Turner at number one overall and have Fernando Tatís Jr. as my second-ranked player. Acuña has less injury risk at this point than Tatís’ shoulder and has as much upside as he does.
Last season before the injury, Acuña hit 24 home runs and stole 17 bases in just 360 plate appearances. If he played 155 games, he was pacing for 45 home runs and 32 stolen bases to pair with his .283/.394/.596 slash line.
Players who have ACL surgeries usually come back as strong, if not stronger than ever. By mid-April, Acuña should be full strength and ready to go for the season.
Charlie Morton, SP, Atlanta Braves
Charlie Morton may be 38 years old, but he is still on top of his game. Morton threw 16 pitches and got three outs during the World Series on a fractured right fibula to show how tough he is. He later had surgery on it.
Morton was on pace to be ready for Spring Training when it was still scheduled to start on time. On February 12, Morton stated he was “mostly caught up” with his Spring Training. So, in essence, a delayed season may not affect him a ton. He is included here because the added time to recover fully, plus a shorter season for a 38-year-old pitcher, should be positive. I expect Morton to continue to be the ace we saw in 2021.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros
Alex Bregman’s 2021 season was not what many hoped for, but he dealt with injuries most of the season. It began in early April when a leg injury kept him out of the lineup. Bregman then missed seven days in mid-April due to COVID exposure. A strained left quadriceps kept him sidelined for over two months, from mid-June to late August. Bregman played through a wrist injury the rest of the season, which required surgery in early November. He was cleared to begin hitting in mid-January, but the extended rehab time could only help Bregman.
I don’t expect Bregman ever to be the 2019 version of himself again, but you don’t need him to be when he is being drafted near pick 100. Bregman could easily hit .270 with 30 home runs and 100 runs and RBI. That is a potentially massive return on investment at the Fantasy Baseball draft slot.
Max Muncy, 1B/2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
According to the Bleed Los Podcast, news has surfaced that Max Muncy is close to swinging a bat. Muncy also stated in the interview that he could be ready for the start of the season. He suffered an unfortunate injury on the final day of the regular season, which was a torn UCL. Instead of going the surgery route, Muncy chose to rest. Everything appears to be going well, and Muncy is on track to begin swinging soon and could be ready for Opening Day.
Given the news of the delayed season, plus Muncy getting on track, his value could take off. His draft stock has fallen significantly and has been going at an average pick of 173 over the last month, according to NFBC.
The time is now to draft Muncy before his ADP begins to rise. Last season, Muncy mashed 36 home runs with a .249/.368/.527 slash line.
Innings Limit Starters
- Chris Sale
- Freddy Peralta
- Alek Manoah
- Shane Baz
- Shane McClanahan
- Joe Ryan
- Blake Snell
- Mike Clevinger
- Michael Kopech
- Pablo Lopez
- Logan Gilbert
- Luis Severino
- Noah Syndergaard
- Jesus Luzardo
There are likely many more starters on some innings limits in 2022. This list is a short one I compiled of players on innings limits who could get a significant boost for fantasy purposes due to a shortened season.
The idea behind this is that these pitchers will pitch the same number of innings they would have if, hypothetically, a month of the season is missed. Other starters will see their innings totals come down, closing the gap between these pitchers’ innings and the high-end innings we see from other starters. This makes these arms much more valuable for Fantasy Baseball
Who Does Not Benefit From a Delayed Season
Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics
A delayed season does not help a player like Ramon Laureano, who is still serving an 80 game suspension from PED use. Laureano served 53 of the 80 games last season, leaving 27 to serve in 2022. The shorter the regular season gets, the more significant percentage of games Laureano misses, hurting his value. Keep this in mind in Fantasy Baseball drafts.
Injured Starting Pitchers
I know this will not be popular, but several injured starting pitchers don’t see their value change even with a delayed season. I hate to be the Debbie downer, but it is what it is. Avoiding risks like these arms in Fantasy Baseball drafts is a much safer decision.
Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets
Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball when he is healthy. The concern is that he is not healthy. Even a month delay does not do much for deGrom. Last season he dealt with a right lat strain, right flexor tendonitis, shoulder soreness, and a partial UCL tear. Very few pitchers can pitch through partially torn UCLs, which usually results in a dreaded surgery that we won’t mention here. deGrom is a huge injury risk, whether the season started on time or not.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw is another pitcher who fits the mold here. Kershaw was elite last season when on the mound, but the problem was when he was off the mound. He missed over two months with left elbow inflammation and then finished the season with forearm discomfort. It was reported that Kershaw had a PRP injection, which is usually an attempt to avoid Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers also did not extend a qualifying offer to him, which speaks volumes. Regardless of the delayed season, Kershaw is still an avoid.
Lance McCullers Jr., SP, Houston Astros
McCullers finished 2021 as the best season of his career. He pitched 162 innings with a 3.16 ERA and 185 strikeouts. Unfortunately, McCullers left Game 4 of the ALDS early with right forearm discomfort. He recently noted he was behind on rehab. McCullers said his injury was “a pretty good strain of the flexor tendon.” He also noted it was “off the bone quite a bit.” I’m not sure an additional month benefits McCullers all that much when you have an injury like this.
Sixto Sanchez, SP, Miami Marlins
Sanchez failed to pitch in 2021 after dealing with shoulder discomfort in Spring Training. He avoided surgery and attempted to rehab it. That lasted until July 22, when he had season-ending shoulder surgery. Sanchez was slated to be ready for Opening Day. Then, reports surfaced that Sanchez was ignoring the Marlins rehab plan for his shoulder. Then, in a Twitter Space chat on March 1, Craig Mish stated Sanchez is dealing with more injuries. There’s a strong chance he does not pitch at all this season. It is better to avoid him in Fantasy Baseball drafts.
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Statistical References: Fangraphs