We make an attempt to shake off the thrills and chills from last week. As exciting as Atlanta was, we must trudge forward. The NASCAR Cup Series heads West to Sin City. The Pennzoil 400 picks below are coming off the heels of two decent races. The Craftsman Truck Series and NASCAR Xfinity Series displayed racing that was above average overall. Rajah Caruth laid claim to his first career Truck Series win on Friday becoming just the third African American to win a NASCAR Series race. John Hunter Nemechek dueled with teammate Chandler Smith during Saturday’s race to earn his own victory. But now we focus on Sunday. We have the usual contenders up top. Joey Logano starts on the front row for the third straight race. Imagine that! Here are the Pennzoil 400 picks for Sunday’s race from Vegas!
Pennzoil 400 Picks: The Top 10
- Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
- Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Austin Cindric (#2 Team Penske)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing)
- Chase Briscoe (#14 Stewart-Haas Racing)
- Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Chris Buescher (#17 RFK Racing)
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
If you read this week’s Pennzoil 400 Preview, we have some familiar names. Kyle Larson lands on the front row. We documented his success on this track, specifically in the NextGen car. We also shouldn’t be surprised by William Byron qualifying in the second row. Both Larson and Byron were top two in several speed metrics in practice. The Toyota’s weren’t great in practice, but some believed they had the cars prepped for qualifying trim. Overall, we have four drivers mentioned from the preview that qualified in the top 10. Perhaps we have a good read on this race ahead of Sunday’s action…
Which Value-Priced Pennzoil 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings
- Erik Jones – $7,400; Starting P22
- John Hunter Nemechek – $6,700; Starting P27
- Noah Gragson – $6,200; Starting P30
- Ryan Preece – $6,000; Starting P36
- Todd Gilliland – $5,900; Starting P31
- Daniel Hemric – $5,500; Starting P34
FanDuel
- Brad Keselowski – $8,500; Starting P25
- Alex Bowman – $8,000; Starting P23
- Erik Jones – $7,000; Starting P22
- John Hunter Nemechek – $5,800; Starting P27
- Noah Gragson – $5,200; Starting P30
- Ryan Preece – $4,000; Starting P36
We don’t have many slam dunks in the value range. Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek (fresh off his Xfinity Series win) are decent plays if you buy into Toyota being sporty come race day). Ryan Preece seems safe enough to play in Cash games. He wrecked his car due to high winds early in practice. For that he’ll start deep in the field. Easy to play in Cash games on both sites. FanDuel’s pricing present Keselowski and Bowman as values this week. DraftKings is a little more difficult. I’m still buying into Noah Gragson potentially breaking the slate. The qualifying effort doesn’t look great. But we’re hoping he can somehow squeeze a top 20 out of this ride at his home track.
Which Higher-Priced Drivers Got A Similar Bump?
- Denny Hamlin – Starting P28
- Ryan Blaney – Starting P15 (modest position differential)
- Kyle Busch – Starting P21
- Ross Chastain – Starting P20
This section is interesting because it may dictate how you build your Cash game lineups. On DraftKings you may struggle to play three of Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and/or Ross Chastain. I’m not too worried about Hamlin. Ownership will be high. But he even said they don’t qualify well here, and the wind may have played a role. But you can still land on Larson/Chastain/Hamlin/Preece on DraftKings for Cash games and still fit in two good plays. I’m not sure I’m all that excited about Blaney or Busch. I’ll get exposure in some Tournament builds. But I’m trying to “buy the dip” on the Toyotas ahead of this race. Mixing them with the dominator potential of Larson and Byron is how I’ve started a few Tournament builds.
Pennzoil 400 Picks
DraftKings
- Kyle Larson – $11,000; Starting P2
- Ross Chastain – $9,100; Starting P20
- Tyler Reddick – $8,900; Starting P18
- Alex Bowman – $8,100; Starting P23
- Erik Jones – $7,400; Starting P22
- Daniel Hemric – $5,500; Starting P34
We dodge some chalk but eat plenty of it all the while. Larson was fast in practice and qualifying. I’d be wildly disappointed if he didn’t get out front and lead laps early on. But I also want to make sure I have some Toyotas in the build with Jones and Reddick who offer up some position differential. And we round it out with Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman. I feel there’s a legitimate shot five of these drivers finish in the top 10. And if that’s the case and Larson wins, then I just want a top 20-25 finish from Hemric. This lineup can be easily duplicated. But I will still gladly enter it into tournaments because of its upside.
FanDuel
- Kyle Larson – $14,000; Starting P2
- Denny Hamlin – $13,000; Starting P28
- Ross Chastain – $9,000; Starting P20
- Alex Bowman – $8,000; Starting P23
- John Hunter Nemechek – $5,800; Starting P27
We have to lean into the unique pricing and scoring of FanDuel. They don’t reward for laps led and fastest laps as much as DraftKings does. But they reward for position differential and overall finishing position. If Larson dominates this race and wins then we’re in good shape. Both Hamlin and Nemechek are Toyotas that I’m hoping move up with the changes to the new body. And we already touched on Bowman and Chastain in the DraftKings build. Again, we have four drivers with some win equity but could also finish top 10. I won’t rule out Nemechek for a solid day either. He won the Xfinity Series race and knows the preferred lines to run here.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
We’ve waited a few weeks for Vegas. We kicked off the season with a couple drafting tracks and we laid low in terms of how much bank roll we played. But now we can loosen the belt a bit. Indulge, if you will! I’m not saying play every penny to your name. But we can put some weight into practice and qualifying. The example lineups above were primarily one-dominator builds. But don’t shy away from playing an additional driver starting in the top 10 or top five. That’s the art of the two-dominator build. Practice and qualifying were interesting. But plant your flag when setting exposures. I’m buying into the top Chevys dominator with the Toyotas possibly shaking the landscape a bit. Best of luck with these Pennzoil 400 picks! I hope to see you in victory lane!