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MLB Player Props for June 7

Welcome to another wonderful Wednesday edition of my favorite MLB player props. We got back to our winning ways last week, so let’s keep the vibes going. This week’s edition centers around several weak starting pitchers. Find out how I am targeting these pitchers below. As always, double-check lineups and pricing before finalizing any plays and adjust as you see fit. Best of luck if tailing!

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MLB Player Props for June 7

Jordan Lyles OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-129, Caesar’s)

Jordan Lyles allowed only one earned run while striking out eight in his most recent start. But forgive me if I remain unimpressed by the performance. Lyles’ effort came in a home start against the Colorado Rockies. The Road Rockies are notoriously poor offensively. Their 77 wRC+ on the road leads only the Detroit Tigers. I have a hard time believing that Lyles has suddenly righted the ship. Before his last outing, Lyles had allowed at least three earned runs in 10 straight starts. Nine of the 10 were games in which Lyles permitted four or more earned runs. I expect some regression back to his previous form on Wednesday when he faces the Miami Marlins.

Miami has won five straight games, averaging 7.6 runs per contest during that stretch. Granted, those victories have come against subpar pitchers. But there is little evidence to suggest that Lyles is any better than the other pitchers that Miami has feasted on recently. The Marlins are second in batting average and sixth in wRC+ over the past week. The only way I see Lyles beating this number is if Royals manager Matt Quatraro pulls him early, as was the case in his last start. However, I believe Quatraro only did that last time out because the Royals had a lead. Lyles has faced at least 22 batters in 10 of his other 11 starts. If Lyles is given that long of a leash on Wednesday, I expect him to allow at least three earned runs.

Emmanuel Rivera OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110, DraftKings)

Emmanuel Rivera often goes overlooked when we think about the resurgent Arizona Diamondbacks. But the utilityman has earned four consecutive starts and will now face Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. Rivera has batted in the bottom half of the lineup in his last four games. That should change in this matchup. Arizona manager Torey Lovullo has routinely hit Rivera second or third against southpaws, and that confidence has been rewarded. The Diamondbacks have faced eight lefty starters in the past 30 days. In those games, Rivera has gone 13-for-34 with three doubles and a home run. That is good for a .559 slugging percentage. He has registered at least two total bases in six of the eight games.

Despite some improvement on the surface, Corbin is still very much a pitcher to target. Corbin sports a 6.11 xERA on the year and is allowing a .494 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters. He features his sinker and slider, throwing them on 80.7 percent of the time to righties. If that trend continues, Rivera should have the advantage. This year, Rivera has a .470 xBA and .664 xSLG against sinkers and a .300 xBA and .436 xSLG versus sliders. He also has a .373 BABIP for the season. This should come in handy against Corbin. Corbin is very much a pitch-to-contact pitcher at this stage of his career. His 20 percent K+BB rate is the second-lowest among 122 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this season. I like Emmanuel Rivera to record at least two total bases on Wednesday.

J.D. Davis OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125, DraftKings/FanDuel)

J.D. Davis is having a solid season in San Francisco, but his underlying metrics are even more impressive. Davis ranks in the top eight percent in expected batting average, expected weighted on-base percentage, and hard-hit rate. I think Davis is in a great spot to surpass his total base prop on Wednesday in Coors Field against Conor Seabold. Seabold is essentially a two-pitch pitcher when facing right-handed hitters. He uses the four-seam fastball or the slider 96 percent of the time to righties this year. Davis has excellent numbers against both offerings. He has a .347 xBA and a .633 xSLG versus the fastball, and a .303 xBA and .517 xSLG against the slider.

Davis still strikes out a lot, but I do not expect that to be a major issue against Seabold. The Rockies hurler has a minuscule 8.3 percent swinging strike rate against. He has also struck out only 13 of 91 righties he has faced, including eight of 58 at home. Davis is perennially near the top of the BABIP leaderboard, and this season is no different. His .358 mark is 17th among 162 qualified hitters. His BABIP is slightly higher on the road (.368) and versus right-handed pitchers (.364). Assuming Davis can make contact on Wednesday, good things should happen for him in this matchup. This is one of my favorite MLB player props on Wednesday’s slate.

Bonus Prop: Elly De La Cruz to Homer and/or Steal a Base

The Cincinnati Reds called up prized prospect Elly De La Cruz on Tuesday. The phenom did not disappoint. He roped a 112-MPH double, walked twice, and flashed his blazing speed on the basepaths. De La Cruz will face beleaguered Dodgers pitcher Noah Syndergaard on Wednesday. As of this writing, I do not have pricing on player props for De La Cruz. I am guessing that he will be somewhere in the neighborhood of +300 to steal a base and +400 to hit a home run. Given his skillset and Syndergaard’s eroding skills, De La Cruz could be in line to record a stolen base and/or a home run. If the prices are in the ballpark of what I expect them to be, I would suggest risking 0.25 units on each play.

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