Last week was a rare dud for me. On the bright side, it was only my third losing column of the season. I believe the process was still fairly solid. In all three cases, the team offenses scored five or more runs. And all three players I picked registered hits but could not muster the required total bases or counting stats. I suppose negative regression was in store to a degree. Either way, I am ready for a bounce back, so let’s get right to this week’s MLB player props. As always, there are several subpar pitchers worth going after. For the most part, I am targeting the pitchers rather than an opposing hitter with my selections. As always, adjust as you see fit and shop for the best price possible.
More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
MLB Player Props for August 9
Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110, DraftKings)
Christian Yelich is in a great spot on Wednesday when he and the Brewers host Chris Flexen and the Colorado Rockies. All of Yelich’s splits are in his favor concerning this matchup. This season, he is hitting .322 and slugging .520 when facing a right-handed pitcher at home. He is also hitting .318 and slugging .547 in day games. Flexen, meanwhile, has been awful under just about any conditions this year. That includes allowing lefties to slug .581 against him. Flexen’s top three pitches against left-handers are a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a changeup. Yelich has an expected batting average (xBA) of .306 or higher on all three offerings, and his expected slugging (xSLG) is .514 or higher on both the fastball and cutter. He should get three cracks at Flexen, which should be plenty for him to record at least two total bases.
Yelich could also benefit from facing a Colorado bullpen that has been one of the worst in baseball. Since the All-Star break, Rockies relievers have a 5.07 ERA and 4.75 xFIP. In addition, their only southpaw, Brent Suter, has pitched two of the last three days. He is likely unavailable, meaning all of Yelich’s plate appearances on Wednesday will almost certainly come against right-handed pitchers. I believe the biggest threat to Yelich hitting this is the potential for base on balls. Flexen has allowed a 10.3 percent walk rate, while Yelich walks 11.5 percent of the time. DraftKings has a walk prop where Yelich is +100 to record a walk. I think this is a viable hedge considering the matchup. Either way, Christian Yelich’s total base prop is probably my favorite MLB player prop on Wednesday’s slate.
3-Leg No Win Parlay: Chris Flexen/Jordan Lyles/Quinn Priester (-134, Caesars)
The three-leg No Win player prop parlay is always a crowd-pleaser. Well, maybe not always. I played one of these on Friday night and lost all three legs. It is the first time that has happened to me. For all I know, it may be the first time in history that it has happened at all. In some ways, losing all three legs of a parlay is better than losing just one. Anywho, two of the three pitchers who beat me on Friday are included in this player prop. But I am going back to the well because I believe the matchups dictate doing so. These three games feature the largest spreads on Wednesday’s board. If everything goes according to Hoyle, none of these pitchers should pick up a win.
The first pitcher on our list is Chris Flexen. I covered him in the prop above, so I will not go into too much detail. But the only reason he was able to muster a win on Friday is because the ghost of Adam Wainwright was on the other side. Adrian Houser and the Brew Crew should be able to prohibit Flexen from earning a victory. Next, we have Jordan Lyles. Lyles has won his last two starts, giving him three wins in 21 trips to the mound. If you think his recent results mean the tide is turning, think again. Lyles has allowed eight earned runs over 10.2 innings in those two wins. Nick Pivetta has been dealing since the All-Star break for Boston, and their offense remains an above-average outfit. I do not expect Lyles to luck into a third consecutive victory this time around.
Finally, we have Quinn Priester of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Priester has long-term potential as a solid starting pitcher, but he is simply not there yet. He has allowed 35 baserunners in just 19.1 Major League innings so far. Now he has the privilege of facing the Atlanta Braves, who sport the best offense in baseball. Though they are only .500 since the All-Star break, Atlanta still averages six runs per game in that span. They also have Max Fried on the mound for this game. Fried returned from a three-month absence last week and appeared not to have missed a beat. Since the All-Star break, Pittsburgh has a 67 wRC+ against left-handers. This one could get ugly for Priester and the Pirates. I do not believe any of the pitchers involved in this play will record a win on Wednesday.
Logan Allen OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-125, DraftKings)
Logan Allen has enjoyed a solid rookie campaign for the Cleveland Guardians. Allen enters this game with a 5-4 record and a 3.65 ERA. But some of his underlying metrics are less than stellar. Allen ranks in the bottom half of the league in just about every Statcast metric imaginable. That suggests to me that some negative regression may be headed his way. He has also benefited from some favorable matchups of late. Allen’s last six starts have come against either the Chicago White Sox, Kansas City, Oakland, or Pittsburgh. That will not be the case on Wednesday night when he will face the Toronto Blue Jays.
Toronto has underwhelmed offensively for most of the year. However, they have turned it on of late, at least against left-handed pitching. Since the All-Star break, the Blue Jays have a .947 OPS and a 162 wRC+ against left-handers. And on the road against lefties since the break, those numbers are 1.114 and 202, respectively. Toronto may be without Bo Bichette, but who needs him when you have Davis Schneider and his glorious mustache? Besides, they still have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and a host of other hitters who can mash. I expect the Blue Jays to get to Allen, resulting in the Guardians hurler giving up at least three earned runs.