Monday night’s MLB DFS main slate is a short seven-gamer with no dominant top-end pitching options and few hitter-friendly parks. However, there are a number of pitchers in borderline elite matchups against weak teams like the Royals, Athletics, and Marlins. These pitchers at lower salaries are where I will build my pitcher pool. On the hitting side, after beating up on each other, the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays enter new weeks with good matchups, albeit at poor hitting parks. Value plays will be tight on this short slate, so monitoring lineups for value plays near the top of the order will be paramount.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for June 12
Today’s analysis covers the seven-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:10 PM ET.
Weather Concerns:
- There is rain in the forecast for the game in Boston where the Red Sox are hosting the Colorado Rockies. Check that update before the slate locks.
Best Hitter’s Parks:
- Fenway Park
- Kauffman Stadium
Best Pitcher’s Parks:
- Oakland Coliseum
- T-Mobile Park
- Busch Stadium
DraftKings Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Zach Eflin ($11,000) vs. Oakland Athletics – After his complete domination of the Twins in his last start, Eflin now has six straight starts of at least six innings and three of those have come with eight or more strikeouts. Now he gets just about the best possible matchup in the best possible park as he takes the mound against the Athletics. Oakland has the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league to go along with the 25th-best on-base percentage and 29th-best slugging percentage.
Value Pitcher
Tommy Henry ($6,200) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Tommy Henry is $1,700 cheaper on DK than he is on FD on Monday night, and has a matchup against Philadelphia that could generate him some fantasy value. Philadelphia has the ninth-highest strikeout rate as a team this season and is just 19th in team slugging percentage. This game will be at Chase Field which has neutralized big lefty bats over the past three years. The Arizona home park ranks 28th in home run park factor to left-handers over the last three seasons, with a home run rate 17% below league average.
Infielder to Target
Rafael Devers ($5,800) vs. Connor Seabold – With a 5.10 ERA. a K/9 below seven, and more than three walks per game, Connor Seabold just doesn’t belong in the major leagues right now. Against a massive bat like lefty Rafael Devers, this is a complete mismatch. Devers has a .492 slugging percentage against righties this season including 10 of his 15 home runs.
Outfielder to Target
Corbin Carroll vs. Matt Strahm/Dylan Covey – Corbin Carroll has been on fire lately, averaging more than 16 DK fantasy points over his last 10 games, but he still checks in as only the fifth-most expensive outfielder. Guys like Masataka Yoshida check in higher than Carroll, which I don’t understand. Lefty Carroll will get his fist at-bat against left-handed opener Matt Strahm, the same guy who just allowed two bombs, a walk, and three earned runs in his one inning against the Dodgers last week. After Carroll gets through that, he will see Covey and his .750 slugging percentage allowed to left-handers a couple of times during the game.
Best DraftKings Stack
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Matt Strahm/Dylan Covey – The Tampa Bay Rays in Oakland are a very expensive stack on DK (more on them in the section below), so I like piling up the Diamondbacks over on DK. They should only have four players above $3,800 in their lineup, including only two over $5,000. Dylan Covey, the projected long-man for the Phillies, sports a 7.11 ERA and a 33.3% HR/FB rate this season. I especially like the cheap left-handed bats like Pavin Smith, Jake McCarthy, and Josh Rojas in this game.
FanDuel Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Bryce Miller ($9,000) vs. Miami Marlins – Zach Eflin is also a great candidate on FanDuel on Monday (for just $10,800), but Bryce Miller is $1,000 cheaper on FD than he is on DK and has an incredible matchup even though he is coming off rough back-t0-back starts. The Marlins strike out 22.5% of the time against right-handers and are just 21st in on-base percentage against them despite a leadoff hitter who has an OBP over .450 right now. Overall, their OPS against righties is just 22nd in the league and they have a wRC+ of just 91.
Value Pitcher
Luke Weaver ($8,100) vs. Kansas City Royals – We really have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for a pitcher of any value below $9,000 on FD Monday night. We might as well play the matchups and hope we get the Weaver who has gone at least five innings and struck out at least five batters in three of his last five starts. We shouldn’t hold his last game implosion too much against him, as he was playing the Dodgers. He held the Cardinals, Yankees, Red Sox, and Marlins to eight total earned runs in his four previous starts. Kansas City now has the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season (24.8%).
Infielder to Target
Wander Franco ($3,900) vs. James Kaprielian – You’ll see a theme develop over the rest of these selections as I think the Rays are just way too cheap on FanDuel considering the matchup they have and the potency of their offense. Franco is slugging .465 against righties this season, and that is actually his weak side of the plate. Franco has eight hits in his last six games to build up a little bit of a hot streak and he has only struck out once in his last five contests.
Outfielder to Target
Josh Lowe ($3,700) vs. James Kaprielian – Now solidified at the third spot in the Rays’ batting order, Josh Lowe continues to just rake against right-handed pitching. He is slashing .306/.343/.559 against them this season including 10 of his 11 home runs this year. And somehow, Lowe is much, much better on the road this year. Away from Tropicana Field, he is slashing .305/.362/.621 and is 68% better than the league-average offense when he suits up on the road.
Best FanDuel Stack
Tampa Bay Rays vs. James Kaprielian – Really, the reason to play the Rays comes down to James Kaprielian and the Oakland bullpen. Kaprielian belongs in a bullpen or in the minors, but Oakland has no other choice. They have to keep rolling him out there despite his 7.21 ERA, his 5.56 walks per nine innings, and his 1.45 home runs per nine innings. The Rays have no batters that are more than $3,900 on Monday despite having one of the top implied runs totals on the slate. This one could get ugly and into the bullpen quickly, where Oakland has the leagues’ worst team ERA (5.95).