While NHL free agency lacked the luster of stars switching teams en masse, there were several trades that brought fans to their feet and jaws to the floor.
There were too many names traded to consider including in the same article with free agents. It made more sense to unpack the fantasy impact of all the off-season trades in a stand-alone article.
Let’s skip the preamble and dive in, taking a look at the biggest names from NHL trades this off-season and how they’ll impact fantasy performance.
Off-Season NHL Trades and How They Affect Fantasy Hockey
Erik Karlsson – D – Pittsburgh Penguins
There’s no better place to start than the reigning Norris Trophy winner. Karlsson’s no-movement clause gave him full control over where he would end up. Few destinations would make fantasy owners drool like Karlsson joining the Penguins and a power-play containing Sidney Crosby, Evgeny Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Kris Letang.
Last year proved a healthy Karlsson is still a scary thing and still an elite fantasy defenseman. Yet, it would be a fool’s errand to predict a repeat of last year’s 101-point performance. So where does Karlsson ultimately end up? Even with an improved offensive cast surrounding Karlsson, expect regression.
Luckily, there is a single outlier we can use as a loose comparison. Roman Josi saw his 1.17 point-per-game (96) in 2021-22 drop to .88 (59 in 67) in 2022-23, which left Josi on an 82-game pace of 72 points. An incredible season in its own right, The regression though shouldn’t have surprised anyone.
To expect a 35-year-old defenseman, even Erik Karlsson, to produce more than 72 points, on a new team is really setting him up for failure. There is room for him to replicate last year, the talent can’t be denied, but to expect a repeat is unreasonable.
Even with a full season under his belt his history of major injuries brings with him words of caution. Set expectations reasonably around 70 to 75 points and hope for lightning to strike twice.
Alex DeBrincat – LW/RW – Detroit Red Wings
Everyone is still looking for DeBrincat’s ceiling. Expectations were sky-high with his trade to Ottawa at the 2022 NHL draft. Yet, his 66-point season felt like a disappointment, even though it’s a really good season by most standards. How much was he boosted by Patrick Kane in Chicago? Eventually, we’ll find out.
Detroit is not as strong offensively as the Senators. They don’t have as many weapons, nor do they have similar high-end offensive players. After Dylan Larkin, the pedigree drops. They have nice complimentary pieces, but David Perron is not Claude Giroux. Lucas Raymond has yet to reach his full potential or demonstrate he will become an offensive star.
DeBrincat has always been a fantasy darling. The name alone brings allure and value. There’s been discussion this summer that he’ll be extra motivated playing for his home state Red Wings. No doubt he will, but does motivation always translate into goals and assists? Or does the increased pressure, internally and/or externally diminish returns?
The realistic prediction is for him to repeat his lone year in Ottawa. Pushing 30 goals and 70 points is nothing to sneeze at. It’s just not that point-per-game plus season everyone is hoping he’ll have. It’s a score-by-committee roster. Those rosters rarely if ever result in elite point producers.
Pierre-Luc Dubois – C – Los Angeles Kings
He shunned Winnipeg as politely as you possibly can. He said all the right things while creeping quietly toward the exit. Unfortunately, when he returns to Winnipeg, hopefully in the reflective silver helmets, he will be met with boos and jeers most often reserved for the Maple Leafs. ‘The North will remember.’
His real value shines in multi-cat pools. He’s the rare combination of points, penalty minutes, shots, and hits that very few can routinely produce. Where he’s only ‘good’ in points pools, he’s a darling in banger leagues.
It will be interesting to see if he can build on the 60- and 63-point seasons he produced in his two years with the Jets. Yet expecting him to dramatically turn into a point-per-game player will leave you disappointed.
It’ll be equally interesting to see Dubois seemingly, for the first time in his six-year career, play for the team on his jersey.
A bump upward to his first career 70-point season will be a big win. He brings a safe 60-point floor which makes him a reliable, plug-and-play fantasy option.
The real winner here could very well be Anze Kopitar. It has been several years since Kopitar has had a legitimate number two offensive center for other teams to worry about. Sprinkle in some softer matchups and Kopitar could see his production bump as well.
Taylor Hall – LW – Chicago Black Hawks
The much-maligned Taylor Hall was a salary cap victim to Boston’s all-in approach to the 2022-23 season.
As the odd man out, he coincidentally lands with his second-generational rookie teammate. It is a rare thing to mentor two generational players in a 10-year span.
Connor Bedard aside, the Blackhawks will be horrible this season. Perhaps they steal a few games here and there and destroy someone’s playoff hopes with a late-season upset (Sorry Pittsburgh). When the dust settles though, they will be picking inside the top five once again.
Hall is not a play driver, at least not on a consistent basis. Sure, he can take over a shift or a game here and there but he’s no longer a Hart-level forward. He’s a strong complementary player that requires elite forwards to push him above 60 points.
Realistically, a stat line of 20-35, 55 points is the best you should hope for. In shallow leagues, Hall is a waiver add. Let someone else draft him late based on Bedard hype. For deeper pools, Hall holds some underlying value as a good portion of his points should come off the power play.
Tyler Toffoli – LW – New Jersey Devils
No one expected Toffoli to have the year he had with the Flames. His previous career high of 58 points came in 2015-16; seemingly a lifetime ago.
Yet, here he is, fresh off a 258-shot, 34-goal, 39-assist, 73-point season; all career highs. He’s also moving to a top team in the Metropolitan division filled with firepower, the popular opinion will be, he should repeat last season with ease.
Well, how does one reconcile the fact that Toffoli had never before seen 60 points, only to find 73 points at the tender age of 30? How does one reconcile the fact he hadn’t hit 50 points since 2015-16? The answer likely lies in special teams.
Toffoli is the sixth-highest cap hit among Devils forwards. When you look at who sits above him, Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, and Ondrej Palat, one quickly realizes it will take an injury, maybe two, for him to get a sniff of this potent first power-play unit.
Without access to this unit, Toffoli won’t replicate last season. Consider, he had 25 power-play points last year; only once prior did he have 15 or more. It’s pretty obvious his success on the power-play boosted his career year.
Expect a fall-back-to-earth season for Toffoli. With his potential 5×5 linemates, he could push toward 60 points. Expecting a repeat of 73 will only end in disappointment.
Well, that’ll wrap. I hope you enjoyed it. Even more, I hope it made you pause, question your own expectations and maybe even call ‘bullshit’ on some of my projections. Let’s have some fun.
Give me a follow on Twitter @doylelb4; where you’ll find as many hiking musings as you will fantasy hockey.