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Fantasy Baseball: Players Expected Stats Are Too High On

Baseball Savant’s expected statistics are a great measure of what a player’s production should be. However, this doesn’t mean it should be used as a predictive tool to project what a player will do moving forward.

Based on my research at Fangraphsoverall statistics are more predictive of future production than expected statistics. Why? Well, there are certain limitations of expected stats. These statistics factor in exit velocity and launch angle, but do not take into account other key factors, such as batted-ball trajectory. A pulled fly ball, for instance, has a better chance of ending up as a home run than a ball hit the other way, while hitters with even sprays tend to post higher batting average on balls in play.

As we’ve shown with both expected batting average and expected power, there are clear ways to outperform or underperform your expected statistics. Today, we’re going to be looking at players that fit that bill. Who is going to hit for a worse batting average or less power than their expected statistics would suggest? Let us take a closer look!

Things look bleak now but there will be baseball in 2022! Why not get a head start and jump in a Fantrax Classic Draft contest? Get a jump on the season with a Best Ball league or maybe a Draft and Hold. Or put some green on the line with a new season-long league to try and conquer. There’s no better time than now to get your baseball on!

Underachieving Expected Batting Average

PlayerBA OverachieveReal xBAxbaBA
Curt Casali11.
Yasmani Grandal13.
Manny Pina16.
Mike Zunino17.
Martin Maldonado19.
Albert Pujols20.
Austin Hedges20.
Jesus Aguilar20.
Nolan Arenado21.
Dom Nunez21.
Luke Voit III23.
Gary Sanchez23.
Kurt Suzuki23.
Mitch Garver24.
Joey Votto24.
Kyle Higashioka24.
Wilmer Flores24.
Yadier Molina24.
Alejandro Kirk24.
Willians Astudillo25.
Jacob Stallings25.
Yan Gomes27.
Tomas Nido27.
Sandy Leon28.
Michael Perez28.
Anthony Rendon28.
Josh Donaldson28.
Danny Jansen28.
Salvador Perez28.
Asdrubal Cabrera28.
Omar Narvaez29.
Rhys Hoskins29.
Matt Carpenter29.
Carlos Santana29.
Jonah Heim29.
Alex Bregman29.
Carson Kelly30.
Anthony Santander30.
Patrick Wisdom30.
Jed Lowrie30.
Travis Shaw30.
Max Stassi30.
Eugenio Suarez31.
Tucker Barnhart31.
Sean Murphy31.
Jorge Soler31.
Jake Lamb31.
Maikel Franco31.
Zack Collins32.
Adam Duvall32.
Giancarlo Stanton32.
Tommy La Stella32.
Ryan Jeffers32.
Brandon Belt32.
Kyle Seager32.
LaMonte Wade Jr.
Miguel Sano33.
Buster Posey III33.
Kole Calhoun33.
Miguel Cabrera33.
Franmil Reyes33.
Wilson Ramos33.
C.J. Cron34.
Clint Frazier34.
Justin Turner34.
Jose Trevino34.
Austin Nola34.
Anthony Rizzo34.
Daniel Vogelbach34.
Willie Calhoun34.
Aristides Aquino34.
Rowdy Tellez35.
Luis Urias35.
Darin Ruf35.
Elias Diaz35.
Stephen Vogt35.
Evan Longoria36.
William Contreras36.
Justin Upton36.
Tom Murphy36.
Jose Ramirez36.
Marcus Semien36.
Colin Moran37.
Ty France37.
Alex Dickerson37.
Jose Peraza37.
Paul Goldschmidt37.
Joey Gallo37.
Jesse Winker37.79.301.295.305
Seth Brown37.
Josh Reddick37.
Jose Rojas38.
Austin Barnes38.
Mitch Haniger38.
J.D. Martinez38.
Marcell Ozuna38.
Mitch Moreland38.
Will Smith38.
Ha-Seong Kim38.
Matt Chapman38.
Manny Machado38.94.300.294.278
Mike Brosseau39.
Mookie Betts39.
Mike Yastrzemski39.
Matt Olson39.
Frank Schwindel39.
Freddy Galvis39.
Paul DeJong40.
Stephen Piscotty40.
Nelson Cruz Jr.
Tony Kemp40.
George Springer III40.
Roberto Perez40.
Victor Caratini40.
Kyle Schwarber40.
Brent Rooker Jr.
Hunter Dozier40.
Pete Alonso40.
Austin Meadows40.
Aaron Judge41.00.313.306.287
Jake Bauers41.
Pedro Severino41.
Ben Gamel41.
Aledmys Diaz41.
Rougned Odor41.
Hanser Alberto41.
Andrelton Simmons41.
Enrique Hernandez41.
Ryan Zimmerman41.
Max Muncy41.
Kevin Plawecki41.
Austin Riley41.
Ehire Adrianza41.
Jose Abreu41.
J.D. Davis42.
Reese McGuire42.
Jeimer Candelario42.
Luis Robert42.34.305.297.338
Isan Diaz42.
Michael Brantley Jr.42.40.320.312.311
Sergio Alcantara42.
Robbie Grossman42.
Jordan Luplow42.
Andrew McCutchen42.
Kyle Tucker42.67.315.307.294
Carter Kieboom42.
Jonathan India42.
Corey Seager42.95.303.295.306
Eric Haase42.
Josh VanMeter43.
Chad Pinder43.
Jorge Polanco43.
Dominic Smith43.
Connor Joe43.
Michael Conforto43.
Rafael Ortega43.
Josh Harrison43.
James McCann43.
Gregory Polanco43.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.43.79.315.306.311
Kevin Pillar43.
Kyle Farmer43.
Ronald Acuna Jr.43.96.303.294.283
Willy Adames43.
Travis d'Arnaud44.
Ji-Man Choi44.
Max Kepler44.
Victor Robles44.
Bobby Dalbec44.
Eduardo Escobar44.
Trevor Larnach44.
Donovan Solano44.
Dylan Moore44.
Hunter Renfroe44.
Josh Naylor44.
Jose Altuve44.
Kris Bryant45.
Christian Vazquez45.
Brian Goodwin45.
AJ Pollock45.
Tyrone Taylor45.
Christian Walker45.
Josh Bell45.
Matt Beaty45.
Jason Castro45.
Garrett Cooper45.
Chris Taylor45.
Didi Gregorius45.
Jonathan Schoop45.
Zack Short45.
Yordan Alvarez45.
Nick Castellanos45.89.303.293.309
Andrew Vaughn46.
Rob Refsnyder46.
Cody Bellinger46.
Harold Castro46.
Yermin Mercedes46.
Gleyber Torres46.
Yoshi Tsutsugo46.
Brad Miller46.
DJ Stewart46.
Wil Myers46.
Marwin Gonzalez46.
Bobby Bradley47.
Avisail Garcia47.
Randal Grichuk47.
Jake Fraley47.
Ryan Mountcastle47.
Trey Mancini III47.
Andrew Benintendi47.
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Mark Canha47.
Jarred Kelenic47.
Ryan O'Hearn47.
Elvis Andrus47.
Yu Chang47.
Brandon Lowe47.
Carlos Correa47.95.307.296.279
Jason Heyward48.
Brandon Crawford48.
Ryan McMahon48.
Nick Gordon48.
Billy McKinney48.
Miguel Rojas48.
Francisco Lindor48.
Keston Hiura48.
Jared Walsh48.
Niko Goodrum48.
Austin Hays48.
Pat Valaika48.
Ramon Laureano49.
Yuli Gurriel49.
Ketel Marte49.17.318.307.318
Gavin Sheets49.
Luis Torrens49.
DJ Peters49.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Brett Phillips49.
Joshua Fuentes49.
Eddie Rosario49.
Zach McKinstry49.
Joe Panik49.

C Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox

With a career-low .246 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), you may expect Yasmani Grandal to benefit from positive regression in 2022. However, I wouldn’t be so sure. Last year, Grandal increased his pull rate to 44.3%, while his home-to-first time is now over five seconds (5.08, amongst the worst in the league). Perhaps he’ll benefit from line drive regression, but Grandal’s days of positing BABIPs in the high .270s is likely over. Luckily, he decreased his strikeout rate last year, and also provides a lot of power for your fantasy team. In on-base percentage (OBP) leagues, his value increases significantly.

C Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

With a career batting average (.230) much lower than his expected batting average (.245), as well as four straight seasons with a BABIP below .245, it’s clear that Gary Sanchez is a batting average outlier in the wrong way. His pull rate has been over 50% in back-to-back seasons, and his declining home-to-first times aren’t an optimistic sign of future batting average production. Thus, as per usual, the 29-year-old’s fantasy will be completely contingent on his power.

3B Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins

Last season, Josh Donaldson underperformed his expected batting average (.268) by .21 points, and it’s easy to see why. His 44.5% pull rate is certainly above average, while he posted a career-worst 4.83-second home-to-first time this year. With signs of decline due to age, I’m not expecting much more than a .240-.250 batting average from Donaldson in 2022, which still makes him a fine value as a late-round third base target.

3B Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs

Patrick Wisdom actually (.231 batting average) overachieved his .216 expected batting average last year. However, I expect the reverse to happen in 2022. Wisdom’s 53% pull rate is incredibly high, and since he lifts the ball in the air (32.4% ground ball), he’s not going to repeat his .318 BABIP. If his 40.8% strikeout rate holds, it might be hard for him to maintain a .200 batting average.

Underperforming Expected Power

PlayerPower OverachieveReal xISOxisoisolated_powerReal xISO
Nick Madrigal5.69.0495.0640.1200.0848
Ke'Bryan Hayes7.09.1052.1190.1160.1268
DJ LeMahieu12.41.1018.1130.0940.1177
Nathaniel Lowe14.16.1537.1640.1510.1796
Raimel Tapia14.24.0557.0660.0990.1050
Jorge Alfaro14.35.1238.1340.0980.1677
Eric Hosmer15.55.1264.1360.1260.1438
Matt Duffy15.97.1006.1100.0930.1242
Alec Bohm15.98.1216.1310.0950.1519
Erik Gonzalez16.77.0859.0950.0680.1199
Luis Guillorme17.46.0663.0750.0450.0924
Nicky Lopez17.47.0563.0650.0780.0915
Yadiel Hernandez18.98.1510.1590.1400.1477
Shogo Akiyama19.44.0643.0720.0490.0945
Andrew Knizner20.26.0877.0950.0620.1273
Jon Berti20.65.0849.0920.1030.1134
Harold Castro21.34.1192.1260.0760.1204
Owen Miller21.49.1123.1190.1050.1498
Yonny Hernandez21.85.0385.0450.0350.0992
Luis Torrens22.34.1747.1810.1880.1980
Tim Anderson22.90.1560.1620.1590.1730
Amed Rosario23.46.0942.1000.1270.1194
Juan Soto23.74.2334.2390.2210.2282
Tomas Nido25.19.1481.1530.1050.1571
Bo Bichette25.87.1924.1970.1860.1947
Ramon Urias26.00.1515.1560.1340.1950
Travis Jankowski26.18.0586.0630.0990.1120
Alex Kirilloff26.60.2408.2450.1720.2277
Brandon Marsh27.72.1453.1490.1020.2093
Jake Meyers27.89.1754.1790.1780.1992
Kevin Kiermaier27.98.0845.0880.1290.1374
Nico Hoerner28.49.0767.0800.0670.1118
Luis Arraez28.60.1118.1150.0820.1168
Harold Ramirez28.64.1308.1340.1300.1605
Buster Posey III28.84.1849.1880.1950.1793
Jean Segura29.21.1261.1290.1460.1569
Mike Tauchman29.29.1051.1080.1020.1514
Tommy Pham29.35.1811.1840.1540.1995
Christian Arroyo29.68.1523.1550.1830.1715
Adam Eaton29.76.0903.0930.1260.1405
Andrew Stevenson29.97.1224.1250.1090.1587
Gio Urshela30.12.1595.1620.1520.1798
Magneuris Sierra30.30.0346.0370.0380.0964
Chad Pinder30.46.2427.2450.1680.2680
Myles Straw30.59.0747.0770.0760.1069
David Fletcher30.61.0458.0480.0620.0963
Jake Cave30.62.1138.1160.1040.1591
Yonathan Daza30.85.0729.0750.0730.1186
Brendan Rodgers31.12.1580.1600.1860.1617
Victor Reyes31.54.1462.1480.1580.1844
Odubel Herrera31.54.1222.1240.1560.1469
Nick Solak31.60.1212.1230.1200.1645
Miguel Andujar31.65.1463.1480.1300.1535
Willi Castro31.79.1183.1200.1310.1510
David Peralta31.88.1004.1020.1440.1502
Starlin Castro32.07.1375.1390.0920.1547
Isiah Kiner-Falefa32.28.0806.0820.0870.1180
Phil Gosselin32.31.1116.1130.1010.1321
Ryan McMahon32.76.1798.1810.1950.1719
Leody Taveras32.87.1029.1040.1090.1637
Starling Marte33.14.1600.1610.1480.1884
Colin Moran33.43.1441.1450.1320.1841
J.D. Davis33.48.1582.1590.1510.2292
Christian Yelich33.54.1372.1380.1250.1802
J.P. Crawford33.71.0803.0810.1030.1239
Alcides Escobar33.79.0873.0880.1160.1309
Yandy Diaz34.11.1415.1420.1310.1723
Austin Slater34.11.1815.1820.1820.2008
Nomar Mazara34.35.1286.1290.1090.1760
Trey Mancini III34.42.1836.1840.1760.2093
Ryan McKenna34.54.1067.1070.0830.1743
Tyler Stephenson34.62.1327.1330.1460.1566
Garrett Cooper35.23.1850.1850.1810.2152
Elvis Andrus35.38.1011.1010.0760.1236
Andrew Vaughn35.50.1892.1890.1610.2128
Danny Mendick35.52.0712.0710.0670.1140
Eric Sogard35.94.0704.0700.0650.1047
Alex Verdugo36.05.1614.1610.1380.1781
J.T. Realmuto36.09.1645.1640.1760.1902
Kelvin Gutierrez36.39.0866.0860.0850.1421
Miguel Cabrera37.28.1850.1840.1290.1890
Edmundo Sosa37.31.1281.1270.1180.1443
Roberto Perez37.34.1891.1880.1700.2345
Christian Vazquez37.38.1031.1020.0940.1273
Brandon Nimmo37.42.1201.1190.1450.1449
Phillip Evans37.53.1012.1000.0930.1497
Michael Brantley Jr.37.91.1553.1540.1260.1641
Rafael Devers37.96.2714.2700.2590.2583
Josh Naylor38.08.1614.1600.1460.1804
Corey Seager38.53.2367.2350.2150.2327
Lorenzo Cain38.54.1287.1270.1440.1484
Leury Garcia38.58.0977.0960.1080.1403
Pavin Smith39.07.1439.1420.1370.1584
Aaron Judge39.25.2850.2830.2560.2881
Josh Bell39.31.2100.2080.2150.1987
Jace Peterson39.35.1351.1330.1200.1571
Travis d'Arnaud39.49.1601.1580.1670.1846
Joe Panik39.54.0882.0860.0760.1195
Manuel Margot39.63.1312.1290.1280.1578
Michael A. Taylor39.72.1432.1410.1120.1728
Giancarlo Stanton39.78.2293.2270.2430.2682
Jose Trevino39.80.1273.1250.1020.1494
Eloy Jimenez39.87.1933.1910.1880.2192
Brian Anderson39.89.1613.1590.1290.1839
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.39.98.1904.1880.1900.2053
Carlos Correa40.00.1874.1850.2050.2026
Steven Duggar40.30.1765.1740.1790.1895
Donovan Solano40.43.1606.1580.1240.1831
Garrett Hampson40.63.1397.1370.1460.1571
Ryan Zimmerman41.03.1879.1850.2270.2163
Victor Caratini41.25.1300.1270.0960.1776
Derek Hill41.26.1070.1040.1290.1617
Abraham Toro41.37.1691.1660.1340.1799
Bryce Harper41.44.3091.3060.3050.2949
James McCann41.45.1231.1200.1170.1713
Brandon Crawford41.71.2352.2320.2240.2250
Jose Abreu41.74.2072.2040.2190.2133
Jared Walsh41.95.1793.1760.2320.2265
Nick Gordon42.12.1534.1500.1150.1802
Franmil Reyes42.15.2644.2610.2680.2843
Yoan Moncada42.24.1665.1630.1480.1935
Jose Iglesias42.34.0995.0960.1200.1416
Jesus Sanchez42.53.2386.2350.2380.2402
Ketel Marte42.95.1868.1830.2150.2023
Freddie Freeman42.97.2658.2620.2030.2283
Yordan Alvarez43.08.2919.2880.2530.2719
Luis Rengifo43.11.1619.1580.1090.1737
Miguel Rojas43.11.0999.0960.1270.1368
J.D. Martinez43.21.2490.2450.2320.2364
Bryan De La Cruz43.34.1170.1130.1310.1653
Charlie Blackmon43.53.1611.1570.1400.1821
Willson Contreras43.72.2122.2080.2010.2256
Brett Gardner43.77.1062.1020.1400.1436
Kevin Newman43.85.0803.0760.0830.1237
Jake Cronenworth43.89.1703.1660.1940.1821
Jacob Stallings44.10.1294.1250.1230.1564
Bobby Bradley44.13.2474.2430.2370.2830
Gleyber Torres44.36.1625.1580.1070.1897
Daniel Vogelbach44.52.1566.1520.1630.1948
Ty France44.59.1696.1650.1540.1808
Cesar Hernandez44.68.1477.1430.1540.1804
Wilson Ramos44.70.1807.1760.1920.2271
Josh Rojas44.91.1248.1200.1470.1606
Bradley Zimmer45.00.1508.1460.1170.2097
Andy Ibanez45.15.1549.1500.1580.1831
Joc Pederson45.17.2009.1960.1840.2139
Jazz Chisholm Jr.45.19.1749.1700.1770.2048
Randy Arozarena45.23.1510.1460.1850.1953
Joey Wendle45.30.1220.1170.1570.1587
Taylor Walls45.32.1050.1000.0860.1412
Justin Turner45.35.2040.1990.1930.1889
Jonathan Schoop45.98.1523.1470.1570.1818
Rowdy Tellez46.13.2094.2040.1720.2299
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.46.22.2864.2810.2900.2688
Yuli Gurriel46.43.1205.1150.1430.1451
William Contreras46.44.1925.1870.1840.2254
Whit Merrifield46.54.1256.1200.1170.1468
Yan Gomes46.67.1937.1880.1690.2029
Trea Turner46.80.1837.1780.2080.1891
Jesse Winker46.81.2327.2270.2510.2292
Evan Longoria46.94.2398.2340.2210.2501
Gavin Sheets47.07.2079.2020.2560.2148
David Dahl47.26.1580.1520.1120.1823
Jackie Bradley Jr.47.31.1020.0960.0980.1647
Jonathan Villar47.39.1580.1520.1670.1907
Corey Dickerson47.43.1320.1260.1370.1442
Juan Lagares47.66.1341.1280.1360.1835
Kevin Plawecki47.83.1752.1690.1020.1744
Lane Thomas47.84.1522.1460.1770.1878
Daulton Varsho47.89.1883.1820.1900.1870
Jeff McNeil47.91.1363.1300.1090.1567
Adam Frazier48.06.0943.0880.1060.1234
Ian Happ48.25.1854.1790.2090.2300
Darin Ruf48.41.2565.2500.2480.2630
Andrelton Simmons48.51.0566.0500.0510.1208
Kyle Tucker48.58.2796.2730.2630.2322
Alejandro Kirk48.82.2297.2230.1940.2268
Clint Frazier48.85.1537.1470.1310.2190
Wander Franco48.98.1388.1320.1740.1647
Tyler O'Neill49.12.3089.3020.2740.2980
Nelson Cruz Jr.49.17.2469.2400.2320.2543
Avisail Garcia49.27.2419.2350.2280.2423
Jarred Kelenic49.76.1962.1890.1690.2167
Lewis Brinson49.78.1372.1300.1500.1802
Javier Baez49.85.2202.2130.2290.2556

2B/1B DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

You would think that playing in Yankee Stadium would allow DJ LeMahieu to overachieve his power numbers, which had been the case previously. However, with a 52% ground ball rate, a 23.4% pull rate, and a 17.9% underrate, LeMahieu ranks below the 28th percentile in the main key facets of overachieving your power numbers. Hence, why his isolated power (ISO) was about .40 points below his xISO.

1B Nate Lowe, Texas Rangers

Ironically, Nate Lowe is someone that showed up as a player who was being underrated by expected batting average. However, the same reasons that is the case make him overvalued by expected power numbers. Lowe ranks worse than the 25th percentile in both key facets of overachieving expected power numbers; his 24.9% pull rate and 16.6% under rate are well-below average. Lowe has a lot of raw power (91st percentile max exit velocity), but until he decreases his 54.5% ground ball rate, 20 home runs appears to be the ceiling for him.

3B Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies

Expected to be a powerful presence in the middle of the Phillies lineup as a former top prospect, Alec Bohm disappointed with just a .095 ISO. Similar to Lowe, his raw power (82nd percentile max exit velocity), he’ll need to hit more balls in the air- he had a 52.7% ground ball rate in 2021. Add in just a 26% pull rate, and Bohm has a long ways to go before he’s hitting 30+ home runs, as he was expected to do. I still have optimism that, with a swing change, he can be an everyday third baseman for a long time, but that’s a major “if” at this point.

OF Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins

In the minors, Alex Kirilloff continuously posted ground ball rates over 40%, and he had a 48.8% ground ball rate in his small sample in the majors last year. Hopefully, for the sake of his power production, we see more balls pulled (32.3%) and in the air (13.4% under, 24.4% fly ball) in 2022.

Stats via Baseball Savant

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